5.7 The Third Economic Revolution
95
unrest is surprisingly long. It includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia,
Nigeria, South-Sudan, Uganda, Congo, Central African Republic, Egypt, Bahrain,
Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Tunisia, Turkey, China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil,
Mexico, Ukraine, Spain, Greece, Romania, the United Kingdom, and even Sweden,
Switzerland and the USA. Note, however, that these countries are faced with different
scenarios. While many African countries are now in transition from an agricultural
to an industrial society, some Asian countries are in transition from an industrial to
a service society. Finally, the US, Europe, Japan and a few other countries are in
transition from a service to a digital society. These transitions may also interact with
each other, of course. In the worst case, they might all occur around the same time,
and pretty soon.
Can we avoid or suppress these transitions? I don’t think so. Stopping technological innovations does not seem to be compatible with most economic systems we
currently have, and it wouldn’t be effective, too. Countries trying to obstruct technological progress by means of legal regulations would have to find other ways to
create comparable economic efficiency gains, as all countries are exposed to international competition in the world market. And even if a global moratorium against
the development of Artificial Intelligence was signed, it is not clear how one could
ensure compliance.
Therefore, we may be able to delay historical developments, but we cannot stop
them, and it wouldn’t be reasonable to try. Delaying these transitions makes them
more costly, and implies competitive disadvantages. On the long run, no country
can afford to miss the opportunities resulting from these transitions, which will
eventually lead to more efficient systems and a higher quality of life. This is all
part of the cultural evolution which takes place as societies progress. It is driven
by socio-economic forces such as increases in complexity, diversity, Big Data and
computer-supported (artificial and collective) intelligence.
In the case of the digital revolution, the genie is out of the bottle. Information
and communication systems have grown increasingly powerful, but a single mistake
could be disastrous. We must, therefore, learn to make the genie work for us. How can
we do this? We must learn to understand the new logic implied by digital technologies
and the trends they are producing. And we must learn it soon.
5.8 The New Logic of Prosperity and Leadership
Most likely the twenty-first century will be governed by principles which are fundamentally different to those of the twentieth century. That is why we must change
our way of thinking about socio-economic systems. We need to recognize some
fundamental trends and truths.
Overall, our anthropogenic systems are becoming more connected and
more complex. As a result, they are often more variable, less predictable, and less
controllable. So, most of our personal knowledge about the world is outdated, and
95
unrest is surprisingly long. It includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia,
Nigeria, South-Sudan, Uganda, Congo, Central African Republic, Egypt, Bahrain,
Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Tunisia, Turkey, China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil,
Mexico, Ukraine, Spain, Greece, Romania, the United Kingdom, and even Sweden,
Switzerland and the USA. Note, however, that these countries are faced with different
scenarios. While many African countries are now in transition from an agricultural
to an industrial society, some Asian countries are in transition from an industrial to
a service society. Finally, the US, Europe, Japan and a few other countries are in
transition from a service to a digital society. These transitions may also interact with
each other, of course. In the worst case, they might all occur around the same time,
and pretty soon.
Can we avoid or suppress these transitions? I don’t think so. Stopping technological innovations does not seem to be compatible with most economic systems we
currently have, and it wouldn’t be effective, too. Countries trying to obstruct technological progress by means of legal regulations would have to find other ways to
create comparable economic efficiency gains, as all countries are exposed to international competition in the world market. And even if a global moratorium against
the development of Artificial Intelligence was signed, it is not clear how one could
ensure compliance.
Therefore, we may be able to delay historical developments, but we cannot stop
them, and it wouldn’t be reasonable to try. Delaying these transitions makes them
more costly, and implies competitive disadvantages. On the long run, no country
can afford to miss the opportunities resulting from these transitions, which will
eventually lead to more efficient systems and a higher quality of life. This is all
part of the cultural evolution which takes place as societies progress. It is driven
by socio-economic forces such as increases in complexity, diversity, Big Data and
computer-supported (artificial and collective) intelligence.
In the case of the digital revolution, the genie is out of the bottle. Information
and communication systems have grown increasingly powerful, but a single mistake
could be disastrous. We must, therefore, learn to make the genie work for us. How can
we do this? We must learn to understand the new logic implied by digital technologies
and the trends they are producing. And we must learn it soon.
5.8 The New Logic of Prosperity and Leadership
Most likely the twenty-first century will be governed by principles which are fundamentally different to those of the twentieth century. That is why we must change
our way of thinking about socio-economic systems. We need to recognize some
fundamental trends and truths.
Overall, our anthropogenic systems are becoming more connected and
more complex. As a result, they are often more variable, less predictable, and less
controllable. So, most of our personal knowledge about the world is outdated, and