23
biophysical basis of society, to anticipate future challenges associated with the
transformation of that basis, and to offer quantitative and objective assistance to
decision-makers.
The scientifi c approach to studying the transformation faces two major challenges: (1) The transformation affects many different aspects of society and the
environment; it ignores traditional boundaries between scientifi c disciplines. (2)
The transformation is a complex process and spans many different scales, which are
interconnected: spatial (local biotopes, cities, regions, countries, the globe), organizational (households, companies, sectors, nations, global community), and temporal (from immediate consequences to long-term effects several centuries from now).
The necessity to study different scales follows from the nature of the problem: It
is essential to consider the global scale for three reasons: the changes in the environment are global, our global economy is causing these changes, and relocation of
production activities happens on a global scale. Smaller scales need to be studied as
well because these scales represent the typical scope of decision-making; they form
the arena where interventions take place.
To cope with these two challenges, scientists use an interdisciplinary systems
approach, where the biophysical basis of human society is seen as a complex selfreproducing (autopoietic) system controlled by human agents (Binder et al. 2013 ;
Fischer-Kowalski and Weisz 1999 ). The systems approach to studying the biophysical basis of human society is called socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) (FischerKowalski and Haberl 1998 ); it forms the basis for scientifi c assessments from the
angle of different disciplines (Pauliuk and Hertwich 2015 ). A major application of
the systems approach is to quantify possible future impacts of specifi c transformation strategies, such as deployment of renewable energy supply or carbon taxation,
on different spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. This forward-looking analysis is called prospective assessment of transformation strategies. It requires prospective models of socioeconomic metabolism that can capture its future
development. These models are being developed in several scientifi c fi elds, including integrated assessment model (IAM), econometrics, and industrial ecology (IE).
1.3 Goal and Scope
Unlike IAMs and prospective econometric models, prospective models in industrial
ecology were developed very recently, and so far, the community of researchers
involved has been rather small. A general overview of prospective modeling in
industrial ecology is not available, a gap that we try to fi ll in this chapter. Our review
includes a discussion of general principles of prospective modeling, and it shows
how the recently developed prospective IE models relate to the established IE
method material fl ow analysis ( MFA ), life-cycle assessment (LCA), and input/output analysis (I/O), as well as IAMs.
The remainder of this chapter is structured as follows: First, we describe general
principles of prospective models of society’s metabolism. Then, we describe the
state of the art of prospective models in industrial ecology (IE) and explain the rela2 Prospective Models of Society’s Future Metabolism: What Industrial Ecology Has…
biophysical basis of society, to anticipate future challenges associated with the
transformation of that basis, and to offer quantitative and objective assistance to
decision-makers.
The scientifi c approach to studying the transformation faces two major challenges: (1) The transformation affects many different aspects of society and the
environment; it ignores traditional boundaries between scientifi c disciplines. (2)
The transformation is a complex process and spans many different scales, which are
interconnected: spatial (local biotopes, cities, regions, countries, the globe), organizational (households, companies, sectors, nations, global community), and temporal (from immediate consequences to long-term effects several centuries from now).
The necessity to study different scales follows from the nature of the problem: It
is essential to consider the global scale for three reasons: the changes in the environment are global, our global economy is causing these changes, and relocation of
production activities happens on a global scale. Smaller scales need to be studied as
well because these scales represent the typical scope of decision-making; they form
the arena where interventions take place.
To cope with these two challenges, scientists use an interdisciplinary systems
approach, where the biophysical basis of human society is seen as a complex selfreproducing (autopoietic) system controlled by human agents (Binder et al. 2013 ;
Fischer-Kowalski and Weisz 1999 ). The systems approach to studying the biophysical basis of human society is called socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) (FischerKowalski and Haberl 1998 ); it forms the basis for scientifi c assessments from the
angle of different disciplines (Pauliuk and Hertwich 2015 ). A major application of
the systems approach is to quantify possible future impacts of specifi c transformation strategies, such as deployment of renewable energy supply or carbon taxation,
on different spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. This forward-looking analysis is called prospective assessment of transformation strategies. It requires prospective models of socioeconomic metabolism that can capture its future
development. These models are being developed in several scientifi c fi elds, including integrated assessment model (IAM), econometrics, and industrial ecology (IE).
1.3 Goal and Scope
Unlike IAMs and prospective econometric models, prospective models in industrial
ecology were developed very recently, and so far, the community of researchers
involved has been rather small. A general overview of prospective modeling in
industrial ecology is not available, a gap that we try to fi ll in this chapter. Our review
includes a discussion of general principles of prospective modeling, and it shows
how the recently developed prospective IE models relate to the established IE
method material fl ow analysis ( MFA ), life-cycle assessment (LCA), and input/output analysis (I/O), as well as IAMs.
The remainder of this chapter is structured as follows: First, we describe general
principles of prospective models of society’s metabolism. Then, we describe the
state of the art of prospective models in industrial ecology (IE) and explain the rela2 Prospective Models of Society’s Future Metabolism: What Industrial Ecology Has…