24
tion of these models to consequential LCA, which is an IE concept that also has a
prospective aspect. Finally, we discuss future applications and options for further
development of prospective IE models, with special focus on the relation to integrated assessment models (IAMs).
2 Principles of Prospective Models of Socioeconomic
Metabolism
2.1 Overview and General Principles
Prospective models of society’s metabolism require certain features to be fi t for
purpose. They need to follow an interdisciplinary systems approach, as explained
above, and in Table 2.1 , we list salient features of the systems approach and mention
briefl y how they are commonly implemented.
(1) Dynamic models have an explicit time dimension and contain mechanisms
to generate the future state of the system from its past and from additional
exogenous information. Dynamic models link different time scales with
each other, which is necessary to study how changes on short time scales
affect the long- term dynamics of the system. For example, large-scale substitution of materials today will alter the recycling system in the future.
Combining dynamic models of SEM with other models with an explicit
time line, like climate models, allows us to study the interaction between
socioeconomic metabolism and the environment over time. Dynamic models allow for fl exible handling of time discounting, e.g., an artifi cial time
horizon to calculate the global warming potential is not needed in models
where time is explicit. Finally, dynamic models enable researchers to study
changes that happen gradually over time, like the introduction of new techTable 2.1 Salient features of prospective models of socioeconomic metabolism and common
ways of implementing them
Feature
Common implementation
Ability to capture different spatial, organizational, and
temporal scales
(1) Dynamic models
(2) Assessment at full scale
Capability to produce results that are relevant for different
scientifi c disciplines
(3a) Multilayer modeling
(3b) Satellite accounts
Ability to determine future consequences of decisions in the
past
(1) Dynamic models
Ability to deal with the indeterminacy (“uncertainty”) of
future development
(4) Scenario modeling with
exogenous model parameters
Adherence to generally accepted scientifi c principles such as
mass and energy conservation or economic balances
(3c) Balancing constraints for
processes and regions
The numbers refer to the paragraphs below, where more detailed explanation is provided
S. Pauliuk and E.G. Hertwich
tion of these models to consequential LCA, which is an IE concept that also has a
prospective aspect. Finally, we discuss future applications and options for further
development of prospective IE models, with special focus on the relation to integrated assessment models (IAMs).
2 Principles of Prospective Models of Socioeconomic
Metabolism
2.1 Overview and General Principles
Prospective models of society’s metabolism require certain features to be fi t for
purpose. They need to follow an interdisciplinary systems approach, as explained
above, and in Table 2.1 , we list salient features of the systems approach and mention
briefl y how they are commonly implemented.
(1) Dynamic models have an explicit time dimension and contain mechanisms
to generate the future state of the system from its past and from additional
exogenous information. Dynamic models link different time scales with
each other, which is necessary to study how changes on short time scales
affect the long- term dynamics of the system. For example, large-scale substitution of materials today will alter the recycling system in the future.
Combining dynamic models of SEM with other models with an explicit
time line, like climate models, allows us to study the interaction between
socioeconomic metabolism and the environment over time. Dynamic models allow for fl exible handling of time discounting, e.g., an artifi cial time
horizon to calculate the global warming potential is not needed in models
where time is explicit. Finally, dynamic models enable researchers to study
changes that happen gradually over time, like the introduction of new techTable 2.1 Salient features of prospective models of socioeconomic metabolism and common
ways of implementing them
Feature
Common implementation
Ability to capture different spatial, organizational, and
temporal scales
(1) Dynamic models
(2) Assessment at full scale
Capability to produce results that are relevant for different
scientifi c disciplines
(3a) Multilayer modeling
(3b) Satellite accounts
Ability to determine future consequences of decisions in the
past
(1) Dynamic models
Ability to deal with the indeterminacy (“uncertainty”) of
future development
(4) Scenario modeling with
exogenous model parameters
Adherence to generally accepted scientifi c principles such as
mass and energy conservation or economic balances
(3c) Balancing constraints for
processes and regions
The numbers refer to the paragraphs below, where more detailed explanation is provided
S. Pauliuk and E.G. Hertwich