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We fi nd that IAMs have a more comprehensive scope than the prospective IE models, but they often do not obey central IE principles such as the life cycle approach and
mass balance consistency. Integrating core IE principles into IAMs would increase the
scientifi c quality and policy relevance of the scenarios of society’s future metabolism
generated by IAMs, while placing industrial ecology concepts more prominently at
the same time. We provide a sketch of what this integration could look like.
Keywords Socioeconomic metabolism • Socio-metabolic transition • Sustainable
development strategy • Prospective model • Industrial ecology • Integrated assessment model • Policy assessment • Dynamic material fl ow analysis • Integrated
hybrid LCA
1 Introduction
1.1 The Great Transformation Ahead
Human interference with global biogeochemical cycles has grown to a level that will
trigger epochal changes, including climatic change and state shifts in the Earth’s
biosphere. These changes have substantial impact on humanity; they force humans
to adapt or to be proactive and mitigate negative impacts on the environment. The
spectrum of options for future action is wide. It includes technology development
and deployment, economic instruments including taxes and subsidies, regulation
and standards, and changes in consumer choices and lifestyle. Both adaptation and
mitigation will lead to a transformation of the biophysical basis of our society, which
includes agriculture, industry, infrastructure, building stocks and vehicle fl eets, and
consumer products, and of the way we build, maintain, and operate this basis.
The coming transformation is the continuation of a historic sequence of sociometabolic transitions of mankind, fi rst from the hunter/gatherer to the agrarian and
later from the agrarian to the industrialized society (Fischer-Kowalski and Haberl
2007 ; Fischer-Kowalski et al. 2014 ; Krausmann and Fischer-Kowalski 2013 ). The
coming transformation represents a special global challenge, however, because it is
likely to happen under environmental conditions that are signifi cantly different from
those that enabled the previous two transitions (Barnosky et al. 2012 ).
1.2 Scientifi c Response: The Interdisciplinary Systems
Approach and Prospective Models
Environmental literacy is a core feature of higher species. It is the “capability […]
to appropriately read, utilize, and adapt to environmental information, resources,
and system dynamics” (Scholz and Binder 2011 ). Today, human environmental literacy is higher than ever before. Humanity uses scientifi c methods to study the
S. Pauliuk and E.G. Hertwich
We fi nd that IAMs have a more comprehensive scope than the prospective IE models, but they often do not obey central IE principles such as the life cycle approach and
mass balance consistency. Integrating core IE principles into IAMs would increase the
scientifi c quality and policy relevance of the scenarios of society’s future metabolism
generated by IAMs, while placing industrial ecology concepts more prominently at
the same time. We provide a sketch of what this integration could look like.
Keywords Socioeconomic metabolism • Socio-metabolic transition • Sustainable
development strategy • Prospective model • Industrial ecology • Integrated assessment model • Policy assessment • Dynamic material fl ow analysis • Integrated
hybrid LCA
1 Introduction
1.1 The Great Transformation Ahead
Human interference with global biogeochemical cycles has grown to a level that will
trigger epochal changes, including climatic change and state shifts in the Earth’s
biosphere. These changes have substantial impact on humanity; they force humans
to adapt or to be proactive and mitigate negative impacts on the environment. The
spectrum of options for future action is wide. It includes technology development
and deployment, economic instruments including taxes and subsidies, regulation
and standards, and changes in consumer choices and lifestyle. Both adaptation and
mitigation will lead to a transformation of the biophysical basis of our society, which
includes agriculture, industry, infrastructure, building stocks and vehicle fl eets, and
consumer products, and of the way we build, maintain, and operate this basis.
The coming transformation is the continuation of a historic sequence of sociometabolic transitions of mankind, fi rst from the hunter/gatherer to the agrarian and
later from the agrarian to the industrialized society (Fischer-Kowalski and Haberl
2007 ; Fischer-Kowalski et al. 2014 ; Krausmann and Fischer-Kowalski 2013 ). The
coming transformation represents a special global challenge, however, because it is
likely to happen under environmental conditions that are signifi cantly different from
those that enabled the previous two transitions (Barnosky et al. 2012 ).
1.2 Scientifi c Response: The Interdisciplinary Systems
Approach and Prospective Models
Environmental literacy is a core feature of higher species. It is the “capability […]
to appropriately read, utilize, and adapt to environmental information, resources,
and system dynamics” (Scholz and Binder 2011 ). Today, human environmental literacy is higher than ever before. Humanity uses scientifi c methods to study the
S. Pauliuk and E.G. Hertwich