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4 Effective Policymaking: The Case of the Aluminium Sector
The preceding sections expanded on the challenges of climate change mitigation
and the physical aspects of sustainable development. Effective policy that enacts
responsible management of energy, emissions and materials needs to consider:
• Increased future demand for services from infrastructure and other fi xed capital – such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), water treatment plant, roads and
renewable energy technology – nearly a billion new dwellings globally
• The boundaries imposed by emissions reduction targets
• Material resource use and availability
In contrast to some adaptive strategies that aim for resilience through fl exibility
and reversibility in investments and even reducing the lifetime of investments
(Hallegatte 2009 ), climate change mitigation is about commitment to long-term
change: setting in place the economic, institutional and physical structures to enable
a sustained transition to a low-carbon future. The fi rst priority is effective interventions to limit climate change (UNFCCC 2011 ), followed by the question of whether
a response is effi cient in terms of cost or resources required.
What are the options for effective climate change mitigation policy and how does
the metabolic framework generate answers or enable assessment? We use the global
aluminium sector to illustrate a range of policy actions addressing technical and
behavioural change. The energy intensity of producing new aluminium makes it a
major contributor to GHG emissions, and there is also the need for aluminium in the
future infrastructure stocks of both the industrialised and developing world.
Stabilising global average temperature at 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by
2050 has been translated into a general reduction of global GHG emissions of
50–85 % below levels in 2000 ( IPCC 2007 ). Reducing the emissions from the aluminium sector by 50 % would entail a reduction in emissions intensity of nearly 85
% because of the expected threefold increase in global demand for aluminium by
2050 (IEA 2009 ).
Under these targets, Liu et al. ( 2013 ) analysed mitigation options for the aluminium industry through estimating demand in current and future in-use stocks.
Their dynamic stock-driven model captured global fl ows of aluminium from
reserves to post-consumer scrap (shown in Fig. 6.5 ) and calculated direct and indirect (energy-related) emissions arising from each process (not shown). A 50 %
reduction in emissions compared to 2000 levels at 2050 was found to be only feasible with a combination of optimistic assumptions about rates of recycling, uptake
of new technology, including CCS, and low levels of aluminium in stocks needed
per person (200 kg/person or roughly double the current global average). The latter
assumption implies a signifi cant contraction in access to aluminium stocks per capita in developed countries.
If developing nations were to attain the 200–600 kg/person allocation of aluminium in stocks currently observed in developed nations, the aluminium industry
would not be able to contribute proportionally to the 2 °C target. These results indiT.M. Baynes and D.B. Müller
4 Effective Policymaking: The Case of the Aluminium Sector
The preceding sections expanded on the challenges of climate change mitigation
and the physical aspects of sustainable development. Effective policy that enacts
responsible management of energy, emissions and materials needs to consider:
• Increased future demand for services from infrastructure and other fi xed capital – such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), water treatment plant, roads and
renewable energy technology – nearly a billion new dwellings globally
• The boundaries imposed by emissions reduction targets
• Material resource use and availability
In contrast to some adaptive strategies that aim for resilience through fl exibility
and reversibility in investments and even reducing the lifetime of investments
(Hallegatte 2009 ), climate change mitigation is about commitment to long-term
change: setting in place the economic, institutional and physical structures to enable
a sustained transition to a low-carbon future. The fi rst priority is effective interventions to limit climate change (UNFCCC 2011 ), followed by the question of whether
a response is effi cient in terms of cost or resources required.
What are the options for effective climate change mitigation policy and how does
the metabolic framework generate answers or enable assessment? We use the global
aluminium sector to illustrate a range of policy actions addressing technical and
behavioural change. The energy intensity of producing new aluminium makes it a
major contributor to GHG emissions, and there is also the need for aluminium in the
future infrastructure stocks of both the industrialised and developing world.
Stabilising global average temperature at 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by
2050 has been translated into a general reduction of global GHG emissions of
50–85 % below levels in 2000 ( IPCC 2007 ). Reducing the emissions from the aluminium sector by 50 % would entail a reduction in emissions intensity of nearly 85
% because of the expected threefold increase in global demand for aluminium by
2050 (IEA 2009 ).
Under these targets, Liu et al. ( 2013 ) analysed mitigation options for the aluminium industry through estimating demand in current and future in-use stocks.
Their dynamic stock-driven model captured global fl ows of aluminium from
reserves to post-consumer scrap (shown in Fig. 6.5 ) and calculated direct and indirect (energy-related) emissions arising from each process (not shown). A 50 %
reduction in emissions compared to 2000 levels at 2050 was found to be only feasible with a combination of optimistic assumptions about rates of recycling, uptake
of new technology, including CCS, and low levels of aluminium in stocks needed
per person (200 kg/person or roughly double the current global average). The latter
assumption implies a signifi cant contraction in access to aluminium stocks per capita in developed countries.
If developing nations were to attain the 200–600 kg/person allocation of aluminium in stocks currently observed in developed nations, the aluminium industry
would not be able to contribute proportionally to the 2 °C target. These results indiT.M. Baynes and D.B. Müller