165
Jones DD (1975) The application of catastrophe theory to ecological systems. IIASA research report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria:
RR-75-015
Jones DD (1977) Catastrophe theory applied to ecological systems.
Simulation 29:1–15
Kates RW, Travis WR, Wilbanks TJ (2012) Transformational adaptation
when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:7156–7161. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1115521109
Kelly RP, Erickson AL, Mease LA et al (2015) Embracing thresholds for better environmental management. Philos Trans R Soc B
370:20130276. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0276
Kerkhoff AJ, Enquist BJ (2007) The implications of scaling approaches
for understanding resilience and reorganization in ecosystems.
Bioscience 57:489–499. https://doi.org/10.1641/b570606
Lade SJ, Gross T (2012) Early warning signals for critical transitions:
a generalized modeling approach. PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002360.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002360
Lade SJ, Tavoni A, Levin SA et al (2013) Regime shifts in a socialecological system. Theor Ecol 6:359–372. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s12080-013-0187-3
Lade SJ, Niiranen S, Hentati-Sundberg J et al (2015) An empirical
model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics
for ecological regime shifts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:11120–
11125. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1504954112
Leslie HM, Basurto X, Nenadovic M et al (2015) Operationalizing
the social-ecological systems framework to assess sustainability.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:5979–5984. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1414640112
Levin SA (1992) The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: The
Robert H. MacArthur Award Lecture. Ecology 73:1943–1967.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1941447
Levin PS, Möllmann C (2015) Marine ecosystem regime shifts:
challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management.
Philos Trans R Soc B 370:20130275. https://doi.org/10.1098/
rstb.2013.0275
Levin PS, Breslow SJ, Harvey CJ et al (2016) Conceptualization of
social-ecological systems of the California current : an examination
of interdisciplinary science supporting ecosystem-based management. Coast Manag 44:397–408
Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP et al (2012) Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management
application. PLoS One 7:e38410. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.
pone.0038410
Ling SD, Scheibling RE, Rassweiler A et al (2015) Global regime shift
dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing. Philos Trans R
Soc B 370:20130269. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0269
Liski M, Salanié F (2016) Tipping points, delays, and the control of
catastrophes. 19th annual bioecon conference: evidence based environmental policies and the optimal management of natural resources
Llope M, Daskalov GM, Rouyer TA et al (2011) Overfishing
of top predators eroded the resilience of the Black Sea system regardless of the climate and anthropogenic conditions. Glob Chang Biol 17:1251–1265. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02331.x
Long RD, Charles A, Stephenson RL (2015) Key principles of marine
ecosystem-based management. Mar Policy 57:53–60. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.01.013
Ludwig D, Walker B, Holling CS (1997) Sustainability, stability, and
resilience. Conserv Ecol 1:7
Lynam CP, Llope M, Möllmann C et al (2017) Interaction between
top-down and bottom-up control in marine food webs. Proc
Natl Acad Sci U S A 114:1952–1957. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1621037114
Mathias J-D, Lade S, Galaz V (2017) Multi-level policies and adaptive
social networks – a conceptual modeling study for maintaining a
polycentric governance system. Int J Commons 11:220–247. https://
doi.org/10.18352/ijc.695
May RM (1977) Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a
multiplicity of stable states. Nature 269:471–477. https://doi.
org/10.1038/269471a0
Möllmann C, Diekmann R (2012) Marine ecosystem regime shifts
induced by climate and overfishing: a review for the Northern
Hemisphere. In: Woodward G, Jacob U, O’Gorman EJ (eds)
Global change in multispecies systems: Part II. Academic, London,
pp 303–347
Möllmann C, Müller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G et al (2008) Effects of
climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, and feedback loops
in a simple ecosystem. ICES J Mar Sci 65:302–310. https://doi.
org/10.1093/icesjms/fsm197
Möllmann C, Diekmann R, Müller-Karulis B et al (2009)
Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric
and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the
Central Baltic Sea. Glob Chang Biol 15:1377–1393. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x
Möllmann C, Folke C, Edwards M et al (2015) Marine regime shifts
around the globe: theory, drivers and impacts. Philos Trans R Soc B
370:20130260. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0260
Mumby PJ (2009) Phase shifts and the stability of macroalgal communities on Caribbean coral reefs. Coral Reefs 28:761–773. https://doi.
org/10.1007/s00338-009-0506-8
Mumby PJ, Hastings A, Edwards HJ (2007) Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs. Nature 450:98–101. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature06252
Myers RA, Worm B (2005) Extinction, survival or recovery of large
predatory fishes. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:13–20. https://doi.
org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1573
Myers RA, Hutchings JA, Barrowman NJ (1997) Why do fish stocks
collapse? The example of cod in Atlantic Canada. Ecol Appl
7:91–106
Nyström M (2006) Redundancy and response diversity of functional
groups: implications for the resilience of coral reefs. Ambio 35:30–
35. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-35.1.30
Nyström M, Norström AV, Blenckner T et al (2012) Confronting feedbacks of degraded marine ecosystems. Ecosystems 15:695–710.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9530-6
O’Brien M, Hartwig F, Schanes K et al (2014) Living within the safe
operating space: a vision for a resource efficient Europe. Eur J Futur
Res 2:48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-014-0048-3
Ostrom E (2009) A general framework for analyzing sustainability
of social-ecological systems. Science 325:419–422. https://doi.
org/10.1126/science.1172133
Pershing AJ, Mills KE, Record NR et al (2015) Evaluating trophic
cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems.
Philos Trans R Soc B 370:20130265. https://doi.org/10.1098/
rstb.2013.0265
Pindyck RS (2000) Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental
policy. Resour Energy Econ 22:233–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/
S0928-7655(00)00033-6
Plummer R, Baird J, Dzyundzyak A et al (2017) Is adaptive comanagement delivering? Examining relationships between collaboration, learning and outcomes in UNESCO biosphere reserves. Ecol
Econ 140:79–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.04.028
Punt AE, Siddeek MSM, Garber-Yonts B et al (2012) Evaluating the
impact of buffers to account for scientific uncertainty when setting
TACs: application to red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska. ICES
J Mar Sci 69:624–634. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr174
Reid PC, De Fatima Borges M, Svendsen E (2001) A regime shift in
the north sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the north sea horse
mackerel fishery. Fish Res 50:163–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/
S0165-7836(00)00249-6
Regime Shifts – A Global Challenge for the Sustainable Use of Our Marine Resources
Jones DD (1975) The application of catastrophe theory to ecological systems. IIASA research report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria:
RR-75-015
Jones DD (1977) Catastrophe theory applied to ecological systems.
Simulation 29:1–15
Kates RW, Travis WR, Wilbanks TJ (2012) Transformational adaptation
when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:7156–7161. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1115521109
Kelly RP, Erickson AL, Mease LA et al (2015) Embracing thresholds for better environmental management. Philos Trans R Soc B
370:20130276. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0276
Kerkhoff AJ, Enquist BJ (2007) The implications of scaling approaches
for understanding resilience and reorganization in ecosystems.
Bioscience 57:489–499. https://doi.org/10.1641/b570606
Lade SJ, Gross T (2012) Early warning signals for critical transitions:
a generalized modeling approach. PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002360.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002360
Lade SJ, Tavoni A, Levin SA et al (2013) Regime shifts in a socialecological system. Theor Ecol 6:359–372. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s12080-013-0187-3
Lade SJ, Niiranen S, Hentati-Sundberg J et al (2015) An empirical
model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics
for ecological regime shifts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:11120–
11125. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1504954112
Leslie HM, Basurto X, Nenadovic M et al (2015) Operationalizing
the social-ecological systems framework to assess sustainability.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:5979–5984. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1414640112
Levin SA (1992) The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: The
Robert H. MacArthur Award Lecture. Ecology 73:1943–1967.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1941447
Levin PS, Möllmann C (2015) Marine ecosystem regime shifts:
challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management.
Philos Trans R Soc B 370:20130275. https://doi.org/10.1098/
rstb.2013.0275
Levin PS, Breslow SJ, Harvey CJ et al (2016) Conceptualization of
social-ecological systems of the California current : an examination
of interdisciplinary science supporting ecosystem-based management. Coast Manag 44:397–408
Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP et al (2012) Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management
application. PLoS One 7:e38410. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.
pone.0038410
Ling SD, Scheibling RE, Rassweiler A et al (2015) Global regime shift
dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing. Philos Trans R
Soc B 370:20130269. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0269
Liski M, Salanié F (2016) Tipping points, delays, and the control of
catastrophes. 19th annual bioecon conference: evidence based environmental policies and the optimal management of natural resources
Llope M, Daskalov GM, Rouyer TA et al (2011) Overfishing
of top predators eroded the resilience of the Black Sea system regardless of the climate and anthropogenic conditions. Glob Chang Biol 17:1251–1265. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02331.x
Long RD, Charles A, Stephenson RL (2015) Key principles of marine
ecosystem-based management. Mar Policy 57:53–60. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.01.013
Ludwig D, Walker B, Holling CS (1997) Sustainability, stability, and
resilience. Conserv Ecol 1:7
Lynam CP, Llope M, Möllmann C et al (2017) Interaction between
top-down and bottom-up control in marine food webs. Proc
Natl Acad Sci U S A 114:1952–1957. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1621037114
Mathias J-D, Lade S, Galaz V (2017) Multi-level policies and adaptive
social networks – a conceptual modeling study for maintaining a
polycentric governance system. Int J Commons 11:220–247. https://
doi.org/10.18352/ijc.695
May RM (1977) Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a
multiplicity of stable states. Nature 269:471–477. https://doi.
org/10.1038/269471a0
Möllmann C, Diekmann R (2012) Marine ecosystem regime shifts
induced by climate and overfishing: a review for the Northern
Hemisphere. In: Woodward G, Jacob U, O’Gorman EJ (eds)
Global change in multispecies systems: Part II. Academic, London,
pp 303–347
Möllmann C, Müller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G et al (2008) Effects of
climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, and feedback loops
in a simple ecosystem. ICES J Mar Sci 65:302–310. https://doi.
org/10.1093/icesjms/fsm197
Möllmann C, Diekmann R, Müller-Karulis B et al (2009)
Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric
and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the
Central Baltic Sea. Glob Chang Biol 15:1377–1393. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x
Möllmann C, Folke C, Edwards M et al (2015) Marine regime shifts
around the globe: theory, drivers and impacts. Philos Trans R Soc B
370:20130260. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0260
Mumby PJ (2009) Phase shifts and the stability of macroalgal communities on Caribbean coral reefs. Coral Reefs 28:761–773. https://doi.
org/10.1007/s00338-009-0506-8
Mumby PJ, Hastings A, Edwards HJ (2007) Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs. Nature 450:98–101. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature06252
Myers RA, Worm B (2005) Extinction, survival or recovery of large
predatory fishes. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:13–20. https://doi.
org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1573
Myers RA, Hutchings JA, Barrowman NJ (1997) Why do fish stocks
collapse? The example of cod in Atlantic Canada. Ecol Appl
7:91–106
Nyström M (2006) Redundancy and response diversity of functional
groups: implications for the resilience of coral reefs. Ambio 35:30–
35. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-35.1.30
Nyström M, Norström AV, Blenckner T et al (2012) Confronting feedbacks of degraded marine ecosystems. Ecosystems 15:695–710.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9530-6
O’Brien M, Hartwig F, Schanes K et al (2014) Living within the safe
operating space: a vision for a resource efficient Europe. Eur J Futur
Res 2:48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-014-0048-3
Ostrom E (2009) A general framework for analyzing sustainability
of social-ecological systems. Science 325:419–422. https://doi.
org/10.1126/science.1172133
Pershing AJ, Mills KE, Record NR et al (2015) Evaluating trophic
cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems.
Philos Trans R Soc B 370:20130265. https://doi.org/10.1098/
rstb.2013.0265
Pindyck RS (2000) Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental
policy. Resour Energy Econ 22:233–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/
S0928-7655(00)00033-6
Plummer R, Baird J, Dzyundzyak A et al (2017) Is adaptive comanagement delivering? Examining relationships between collaboration, learning and outcomes in UNESCO biosphere reserves. Ecol
Econ 140:79–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.04.028
Punt AE, Siddeek MSM, Garber-Yonts B et al (2012) Evaluating the
impact of buffers to account for scientific uncertainty when setting
TACs: application to red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska. ICES
J Mar Sci 69:624–634. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr174
Reid PC, De Fatima Borges M, Svendsen E (2001) A regime shift in
the north sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the north sea horse
mackerel fishery. Fish Res 50:163–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/
S0165-7836(00)00249-6
Regime Shifts – A Global Challenge for the Sustainable Use of Our Marine Resources