164
Bestelmeyer BT, Ellison AM, Fraser WR et al (2011) Analysis of abrupt
transitions in ecological systems. Ecosphere 2:129. https://doi.
org/10.1890/ES11-00216.1
Biggs R, Blenckner T, Folke C et al (2012) Regime shifts. In:
Encyclopedia of theoretical ecology. University of California Press,
Berkeley, pp 609–617
Blenckner T, Kannen A, Barausse A et al (2015a) Past and future challenges in managing European seas. Ecol Soc 20:40. https://doi.
org/10.5751/ES-07246-200140
Blenckner T, Llope M, Möllmann C et al (2015b) Climate and fishing
steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures. Proc R
Soc B 282:20142809. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.2809
Boyd PW, Cheung W, Lluch-Cota SE et al (2014) Ocean systems. In:
Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part
A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to
the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ et al (eds) Fifth
assesment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New
York, pp 411–484
Carpenter SR (2001) Alternate states of ecosystems: evidence and some
implications. In: Press MC, Huntly NJ, Levin S (eds) Ecology:
achievement and challenge. Blackwell Science, Oxford, pp 357–383
Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9:311–318. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00877.x
Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Folke C et al (2015) Allowing variance may
enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proc
Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:14384–14389. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1511804112
Casini M, Hjelm J, Molinero JC et al (2008a) Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:197–202.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806649105
Casini M, Lövgren J, Hjelm J et al (2008b) Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem. Proc R Soc B
275:1793–1801. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1752
Conversi A, Umani SF, Peluso T et al (2010) The mediterranean
sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins. PLoS One 5:e10633. https://doi.
org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010633
Conversi A, Dakos V, Gårdmark A et al (2015) A holistic view of
marine regime shifts. Philos Trans R Soc B 370:20130279. https://
doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0279
Crawford JD (1991) Introduction to bifurcation theory. Rev Mod Phys
63:991–1037. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.63.991
Dai L, Korolev KS, Gore J (2013) Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations. Nature 496:355–358. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature12071
Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH et al (2008) Slowing down as an
early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci
U S A 105:14308–14312. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802430105
Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA et al (2012) Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated
using simulated ecological data. PLoS One 7:e41010. https://doi.
org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041010
Dakos V, Glaser SM, Hsieh C-H et al (2017) Elevated nonlinearity as an
indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress. J R
Soc Interface 14:20160845. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0845
DePiper GS, Gaichas SK, Lucey SM et al (2017) Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example. ICES J Mar Sci 74:2076–
2086. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx038
Derissen S, Quaas MF, Baumgärtner S (2011) The relationship
between resilience and sustainability of ecological-economic
systems. Ecol Econ 70:1121–1128. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.
ECOLECON.2011.01.003
deYoung B, Barange M, Beaugrand G et al (2008) Regime shifts in
marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management. Trends
Ecol Evol 23:402–409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.008
Doak DF, Estes JA, Halpern BS et al (2008) Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable. Ecology
89:952–961. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0965.1
FAO (2003) The ecosystem approach to fisheries. In: FAO technical
guidelines for responsible fisheries. FAO, Rome
FAO (2014) Changements climatiques et sécurité alimentaire. http://
www.fao.org/climatechange/16651-044a7adbada9497011c8e3d4a4d32c692.pdf
Fauchald P (2010) Predator-prey reversal: a possible mechanism for
ecosystem hysteresis in the North Sea? Ecology 91:2191–2197.
https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1922.1
Fenichel EP, Horan RD (2016) Tinbergen and tipping points: could
some thresholds be policy-induced? J Econ Behav Organ 132:137–
152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.06.014
Folke C (2016) Resilience. In: Oxford research encyclopedia of environmental science, vol 1. Oxford University Press, New York,
pp 1–63
Frank KT, Petrie B, Choi JS et al (2005) Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308:1621–1623. https://
doi.org/10.1126/science.1113075
Frank KT, Petrie B, Fisher JAD et al (2011) Transient dynamics of
an altered large marine ecosystem. Nature 477:86–89. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature10285
Frank KT, Petrie B, Leggett WC et al (2016) Large scale, synchronous variability of marine fish populations driven by commercial
exploitation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 113:8248–8253. https://doi.
org/10.1073/pnas.1602325113
Galaz V, Crona B, Österblom H et al (2012) Polycentric systems and
interacting planetary boundaries - emerging governance of climate
change-ocean acidification-marine biodiversity. Ecol Econ 81:21–
32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.11.012
Gårdmark A, Casini M, Huss M et al (2015) Regime shifts in exploited
marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory. Philos
Trans R Soc B 370:2013026. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0262
Garibaldi A, Turner N (2004) Cultural keystone species: implications
for ecological conservation and restoration. Ecol Soc 9:1. https://
doi.org/10.5751/ES-00669-090301
Glaser SM, Fogarty MJ, Liu H et al (2014) Complex dynamics may
limit prediction in marine fisheries. Fish Fish 15:616–633. https://
doi.org/10.1111/faf.12037
Haedrich RL, Hamilton LC (2000) The fall and future of
Newfoundland’s cod fishery. Soc Nat Resour 13:359–372. https://
doi.org/10.1080/089419200279018
Halpern BS, Walbridge S, Selkoe KA et al (2008) A global map of
human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319:948–952. https://
doi.org/10.1126/science.1149345
Hislop JR (1996) Changes in North Sea gadoid stocks. ICES J Mar Sci
53:1146–1156
Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems.
Annu Rev Ecol Syst 4:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.
es.04.110173.000245
Horan RD, Fenichel EP, Drury KLS et al (2011) Managing ecological thresholds in coupled environmental–human systems. Proc Natl
Acad Sci U S A 108:7333–7338
Hughes TP, Carpenter S, Rockström J et al (2013) Multiscale regime
shifts and planetary boundaries. Trends Ecol Evol 28:389–395.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.019
Hutchings JA (2000) Collapse and recovery of marine fishes. Nature
406:882–885
Hutchings JA, Rangeley RW (2011) Correlates of recovery for Canadian
Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Can J Zool 89:386–400
C. Sguotti and X. Cormon
Bestelmeyer BT, Ellison AM, Fraser WR et al (2011) Analysis of abrupt
transitions in ecological systems. Ecosphere 2:129. https://doi.
org/10.1890/ES11-00216.1
Biggs R, Blenckner T, Folke C et al (2012) Regime shifts. In:
Encyclopedia of theoretical ecology. University of California Press,
Berkeley, pp 609–617
Blenckner T, Kannen A, Barausse A et al (2015a) Past and future challenges in managing European seas. Ecol Soc 20:40. https://doi.
org/10.5751/ES-07246-200140
Blenckner T, Llope M, Möllmann C et al (2015b) Climate and fishing
steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures. Proc R
Soc B 282:20142809. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.2809
Boyd PW, Cheung W, Lluch-Cota SE et al (2014) Ocean systems. In:
Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part
A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to
the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ et al (eds) Fifth
assesment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New
York, pp 411–484
Carpenter SR (2001) Alternate states of ecosystems: evidence and some
implications. In: Press MC, Huntly NJ, Levin S (eds) Ecology:
achievement and challenge. Blackwell Science, Oxford, pp 357–383
Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9:311–318. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00877.x
Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Folke C et al (2015) Allowing variance may
enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proc
Natl Acad Sci U S A 112:14384–14389. https://doi.org/10.1073/
pnas.1511804112
Casini M, Hjelm J, Molinero JC et al (2008a) Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:197–202.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806649105
Casini M, Lövgren J, Hjelm J et al (2008b) Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem. Proc R Soc B
275:1793–1801. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1752
Conversi A, Umani SF, Peluso T et al (2010) The mediterranean
sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins. PLoS One 5:e10633. https://doi.
org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010633
Conversi A, Dakos V, Gårdmark A et al (2015) A holistic view of
marine regime shifts. Philos Trans R Soc B 370:20130279. https://
doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0279
Crawford JD (1991) Introduction to bifurcation theory. Rev Mod Phys
63:991–1037. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.63.991
Dai L, Korolev KS, Gore J (2013) Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations. Nature 496:355–358. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature12071
Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH et al (2008) Slowing down as an
early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci
U S A 105:14308–14312. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802430105
Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA et al (2012) Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated
using simulated ecological data. PLoS One 7:e41010. https://doi.
org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041010
Dakos V, Glaser SM, Hsieh C-H et al (2017) Elevated nonlinearity as an
indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress. J R
Soc Interface 14:20160845. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0845
DePiper GS, Gaichas SK, Lucey SM et al (2017) Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example. ICES J Mar Sci 74:2076–
2086. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx038
Derissen S, Quaas MF, Baumgärtner S (2011) The relationship
between resilience and sustainability of ecological-economic
systems. Ecol Econ 70:1121–1128. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.
ECOLECON.2011.01.003
deYoung B, Barange M, Beaugrand G et al (2008) Regime shifts in
marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management. Trends
Ecol Evol 23:402–409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.008
Doak DF, Estes JA, Halpern BS et al (2008) Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable. Ecology
89:952–961. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0965.1
FAO (2003) The ecosystem approach to fisheries. In: FAO technical
guidelines for responsible fisheries. FAO, Rome
FAO (2014) Changements climatiques et sécurité alimentaire. http://
www.fao.org/climatechange/16651-044a7adbada9497011c8e3d4a4d32c692.pdf
Fauchald P (2010) Predator-prey reversal: a possible mechanism for
ecosystem hysteresis in the North Sea? Ecology 91:2191–2197.
https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1922.1
Fenichel EP, Horan RD (2016) Tinbergen and tipping points: could
some thresholds be policy-induced? J Econ Behav Organ 132:137–
152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.06.014
Folke C (2016) Resilience. In: Oxford research encyclopedia of environmental science, vol 1. Oxford University Press, New York,
pp 1–63
Frank KT, Petrie B, Choi JS et al (2005) Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308:1621–1623. https://
doi.org/10.1126/science.1113075
Frank KT, Petrie B, Fisher JAD et al (2011) Transient dynamics of
an altered large marine ecosystem. Nature 477:86–89. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature10285
Frank KT, Petrie B, Leggett WC et al (2016) Large scale, synchronous variability of marine fish populations driven by commercial
exploitation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 113:8248–8253. https://doi.
org/10.1073/pnas.1602325113
Galaz V, Crona B, Österblom H et al (2012) Polycentric systems and
interacting planetary boundaries - emerging governance of climate
change-ocean acidification-marine biodiversity. Ecol Econ 81:21–
32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.11.012
Gårdmark A, Casini M, Huss M et al (2015) Regime shifts in exploited
marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory. Philos
Trans R Soc B 370:2013026. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0262
Garibaldi A, Turner N (2004) Cultural keystone species: implications
for ecological conservation and restoration. Ecol Soc 9:1. https://
doi.org/10.5751/ES-00669-090301
Glaser SM, Fogarty MJ, Liu H et al (2014) Complex dynamics may
limit prediction in marine fisheries. Fish Fish 15:616–633. https://
doi.org/10.1111/faf.12037
Haedrich RL, Hamilton LC (2000) The fall and future of
Newfoundland’s cod fishery. Soc Nat Resour 13:359–372. https://
doi.org/10.1080/089419200279018
Halpern BS, Walbridge S, Selkoe KA et al (2008) A global map of
human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319:948–952. https://
doi.org/10.1126/science.1149345
Hislop JR (1996) Changes in North Sea gadoid stocks. ICES J Mar Sci
53:1146–1156
Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems.
Annu Rev Ecol Syst 4:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.
es.04.110173.000245
Horan RD, Fenichel EP, Drury KLS et al (2011) Managing ecological thresholds in coupled environmental–human systems. Proc Natl
Acad Sci U S A 108:7333–7338
Hughes TP, Carpenter S, Rockström J et al (2013) Multiscale regime
shifts and planetary boundaries. Trends Ecol Evol 28:389–395.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.019
Hutchings JA (2000) Collapse and recovery of marine fishes. Nature
406:882–885
Hutchings JA, Rangeley RW (2011) Correlates of recovery for Canadian
Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Can J Zool 89:386–400
C. Sguotti and X. Cormon