68
J. Hoffmann
4.3.3 Impacts of Demographic Change in Multicausal
Models
In addition to sources that dealt with specific sectors individually, the review identified
and analyzed a number of sources that looked at multiple (parallel or overlapping)
sectors and examined possible impacts of demographic change in qualitative terms
(BMVBS and BBSR 2009; Rudolph et al. 2007; Siedentop et al. 2011). They did not
reveal any findings beyond those offered by studies on single sectors, however.
There are only a few quantitative studies on the relationship between demographic
change and land-use patterns (including Schaldach and Priess 2008; Murray-Rust
et al. 2013; Wyman and Stein 2010). The quantitative study undertaken by Kroll and
Haase looked at this relationship in counties in Germany. The results of the study,
for the purpose of the review at any rate, can be summed up in the following key
points (Kroll and Haase 2010, 730–737):
• With respect to regions in eastern Germany, the data show that land-use variables
do not correlate with demographic variables. Economic trends tend to play a
greater role in land-use change in these regions.
• In contrast, western Germany was found to exhibit high correlations between
population trends and migration on the one hand and changes in settlement and
transportation areas on the other. The increase in settlement and transportation
areas in turn affects the amount of agricultural land, which consequently decreases.
4.3.4 Recommendations on Guiding Land-Use Impacts
Recommendations for guiding impacts on land-use sectors are just as unsubstantiated
and imprecise as the findings regarding the impacts on land use. Neither for those
sectors in which use is directly linked to the land, i.e., agriculture and forestry, nor
for nature conservation, do the sources provide suggestions for new or improved
approaches to guiding land-use patterns with respect to either the type or intensity
of land use.
For sectors such as tourism and transportation, which are tied to land use indirectly
through infrastructure, the principal challenge is managing simultaneous growth and
decline. In view of this new situation, it is necessary to reexamine conventional
models, legal regulations and standards created as part of infrastructure policies, and
societal objectives such as creating equal living conditions. Investments in infrastructure should be made only in regions with sufficient demand over the medium and long
term. Better coordination among sectors and more strongly integrated approaches—
in terms of both perspective and action—are needed (Knie and Canzler 2009; FGSV
2006; among others).
The settlement expansion sector boasts a relatively sophisticated range of control
mechanisms, created in part with the aim of achieving the German federal government’s target of 30 ha per day (Die Bundesregierung 2002). A reduction in the
J. Hoffmann
4.3.3 Impacts of Demographic Change in Multicausal
Models
In addition to sources that dealt with specific sectors individually, the review identified
and analyzed a number of sources that looked at multiple (parallel or overlapping)
sectors and examined possible impacts of demographic change in qualitative terms
(BMVBS and BBSR 2009; Rudolph et al. 2007; Siedentop et al. 2011). They did not
reveal any findings beyond those offered by studies on single sectors, however.
There are only a few quantitative studies on the relationship between demographic
change and land-use patterns (including Schaldach and Priess 2008; Murray-Rust
et al. 2013; Wyman and Stein 2010). The quantitative study undertaken by Kroll and
Haase looked at this relationship in counties in Germany. The results of the study,
for the purpose of the review at any rate, can be summed up in the following key
points (Kroll and Haase 2010, 730–737):
• With respect to regions in eastern Germany, the data show that land-use variables
do not correlate with demographic variables. Economic trends tend to play a
greater role in land-use change in these regions.
• In contrast, western Germany was found to exhibit high correlations between
population trends and migration on the one hand and changes in settlement and
transportation areas on the other. The increase in settlement and transportation
areas in turn affects the amount of agricultural land, which consequently decreases.
4.3.4 Recommendations on Guiding Land-Use Impacts
Recommendations for guiding impacts on land-use sectors are just as unsubstantiated
and imprecise as the findings regarding the impacts on land use. Neither for those
sectors in which use is directly linked to the land, i.e., agriculture and forestry, nor
for nature conservation, do the sources provide suggestions for new or improved
approaches to guiding land-use patterns with respect to either the type or intensity
of land use.
For sectors such as tourism and transportation, which are tied to land use indirectly
through infrastructure, the principal challenge is managing simultaneous growth and
decline. In view of this new situation, it is necessary to reexamine conventional
models, legal regulations and standards created as part of infrastructure policies, and
societal objectives such as creating equal living conditions. Investments in infrastructure should be made only in regions with sufficient demand over the medium and long
term. Better coordination among sectors and more strongly integrated approaches—
in terms of both perspective and action—are needed (Knie and Canzler 2009; FGSV
2006; among others).
The settlement expansion sector boasts a relatively sophisticated range of control
mechanisms, created in part with the aim of achieving the German federal government’s target of 30 ha per day (Die Bundesregierung 2002). A reduction in the