4 Demographic Change and Land Use
67
grow (FGSV 2006). Congestion and bottlenecks will be seen in growth regions and
highly traveled transport corridors. In these cases, investments aimed at expanding
existing infrastructure and efforts to increase its efficiency should be made early on.
Additional investments in transportation infrastructure should only be made if sufficient demand is expected in the medium and long term (Knie and Canzler 2009, 177
f.).
With regard to the tourism sector, demographic change—and in particular, the
aging of the population—will cause far-reaching changes on the supply side. The
shift in age structure—at least in the short and medium term—is considered to be
more serious than the potential decrease in demand as a whole (Petermann et al. 2006;
Schröder et al. 2007). In terms of demand volume, a decrease in domestic travel with
overnight accommodation is anticipated. This will result in poorer utilization not
only of tourism infrastructure but also of associated regional infrastructure. In terms
of demand structure, a reversal in market share is expected as demand shifts to older
age groups. Tourism among older people will be an engine for growth in the tourism
sector, at least in the medium term (until 2030) (Grimm et al. 2009a). Concrete,
empirically substantiated predictions of whether and to what degree a change in
tourism demand will impact land consumption for tourism infrastructure cannot be
found in the literature.
In order to explain developments in the consumption of land for settlement
(i.e., residential, commercial, industrial, and recreational areas) and transportation,
a complex collection of variables must be brought to bear. While interdependencies
between demographic change and land consumption for settlement and transportation were reasonably clear in the 1990s, cause and effect are no longer easy to identify
today. Trends in land use for settlement and transportation are not tied to economic
or even demographic factors in the way that they once were. Though demographic
trends continue to be relevant to land consumption, the nature of that relationship is
no longer clear and other factors are gaining in significance. Planning approval for
new developments of single-family homes was long considered to be one of the principal drivers of new land consumption while the construction of high-rise buildings
was not expected to contribute greatly to overall demand for housing land (BMVBS
and BBSR 2009). This is starting to change, however: thanks to positive economic
growth and continuing in-migration into urban areas, the number of approvals granted
to high-rise apartments is considerably higher than those granted to single-family
homes (SRU 2016). Other important factors will probably continue to contribute
to land consumption, however. These include exaggerated growth expectations on
the part of municipal administrations and resultant supply planning, low building
density, and what Germans call the Remanenzeffekt (the “staying-put” effect), i.e.,
the phenomenon of elderly people staying in their apartments or houses, resulting in
a rise in living space per person in regions with shrinking populations (BMVBS and
BBSR 2009).
67
grow (FGSV 2006). Congestion and bottlenecks will be seen in growth regions and
highly traveled transport corridors. In these cases, investments aimed at expanding
existing infrastructure and efforts to increase its efficiency should be made early on.
Additional investments in transportation infrastructure should only be made if sufficient demand is expected in the medium and long term (Knie and Canzler 2009, 177
f.).
With regard to the tourism sector, demographic change—and in particular, the
aging of the population—will cause far-reaching changes on the supply side. The
shift in age structure—at least in the short and medium term—is considered to be
more serious than the potential decrease in demand as a whole (Petermann et al. 2006;
Schröder et al. 2007). In terms of demand volume, a decrease in domestic travel with
overnight accommodation is anticipated. This will result in poorer utilization not
only of tourism infrastructure but also of associated regional infrastructure. In terms
of demand structure, a reversal in market share is expected as demand shifts to older
age groups. Tourism among older people will be an engine for growth in the tourism
sector, at least in the medium term (until 2030) (Grimm et al. 2009a). Concrete,
empirically substantiated predictions of whether and to what degree a change in
tourism demand will impact land consumption for tourism infrastructure cannot be
found in the literature.
In order to explain developments in the consumption of land for settlement
(i.e., residential, commercial, industrial, and recreational areas) and transportation,
a complex collection of variables must be brought to bear. While interdependencies
between demographic change and land consumption for settlement and transportation were reasonably clear in the 1990s, cause and effect are no longer easy to identify
today. Trends in land use for settlement and transportation are not tied to economic
or even demographic factors in the way that they once were. Though demographic
trends continue to be relevant to land consumption, the nature of that relationship is
no longer clear and other factors are gaining in significance. Planning approval for
new developments of single-family homes was long considered to be one of the principal drivers of new land consumption while the construction of high-rise buildings
was not expected to contribute greatly to overall demand for housing land (BMVBS
and BBSR 2009). This is starting to change, however: thanks to positive economic
growth and continuing in-migration into urban areas, the number of approvals granted
to high-rise apartments is considerably higher than those granted to single-family
homes (SRU 2016). Other important factors will probably continue to contribute
to land consumption, however. These include exaggerated growth expectations on
the part of municipal administrations and resultant supply planning, low building
density, and what Germans call the Remanenzeffekt (the “staying-put” effect), i.e.,
the phenomenon of elderly people staying in their apartments or houses, resulting in
a rise in living space per person in regions with shrinking populations (BMVBS and
BBSR 2009).