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J. Hoffmann
4.3 Current State of Knowledge Regarding Correlations
Between Demographic Change and Land-Use Change
4.3.1 Impacts of Demographic Change on Agriculture,
Forestry, and Nature Conservation
Shrinking populations in rural areas do not automatically result in reductions in the
amount of land used for agriculture and forestry. The dominance of agriculture and
forestry among land-use types is primarily a matter of agricultural/energy policy and
economics, and is not determined by demographic factors. Unless this changes, there
is no reason to expect agriculture’s share of land use to decrease (Demuth et al. 2010;
for an opposing opinion, see Wolf and Appel-Kummer 2005). What is more, agriculture and forestry trends are affected to a great extent by global interdependencies
in the production, distribution, and consumption of resources. Thus in forestry, too,
demographic change is not seen as a significant factor in trends regarding forest use.
The possible consequences of demographic change at a national level that are identified in the studies—a decrease in the demand for wood, forests reverting to a state of
relative wilderness, a reduction in the use of local natural areas for recreation (Wurz
2007)—lose their significance when global realities are factored into the equation.
One of the consequences of generally increasing competition for land use is that
larger-scale areas will not be available for nature conservation in the future and
that wilderness areas will therefore not be a large-scale option for nature conservation. This is not to say that there may not be small-scale, positive developments in
nature conservation that can be traced back directly or indirectly to demographic
change. In certain regions, abandoned city neighborhoods and districts may present
expanded opportunities for nature conservation. Especially where protected areas and
landscapes are on the rural–urban fringe and difficult to access, there are (limited)
chances for a reduction in the intensity of use. It is expected that these areas will
experience less recreational use by regional and local populations.
4.3.2 Impacts of Demographic Change on Transportation,
Tourism, and Settlement Expansion
Parallel processes of growth and decline are expected with regard to trends in transportation and tourism infrastructure. In growing regions, steady or growing demand
will result in greater pressure on infrastructure, eventually to the point that supply is
expanded. In declining regions, pressure on infrastructure will decrease, leading to a
reduction in supply (Grimm et al. 2009a; Canzler 2007; among others). In particular
with respect to transportation, the sources conclude that, at least in the short term,
declining areas cannot do without existing infrastructure. This means that as demand
stagnates or even shrinks over the long term, infrastructure will tend to continue to
J. Hoffmann
4.3 Current State of Knowledge Regarding Correlations
Between Demographic Change and Land-Use Change
4.3.1 Impacts of Demographic Change on Agriculture,
Forestry, and Nature Conservation
Shrinking populations in rural areas do not automatically result in reductions in the
amount of land used for agriculture and forestry. The dominance of agriculture and
forestry among land-use types is primarily a matter of agricultural/energy policy and
economics, and is not determined by demographic factors. Unless this changes, there
is no reason to expect agriculture’s share of land use to decrease (Demuth et al. 2010;
for an opposing opinion, see Wolf and Appel-Kummer 2005). What is more, agriculture and forestry trends are affected to a great extent by global interdependencies
in the production, distribution, and consumption of resources. Thus in forestry, too,
demographic change is not seen as a significant factor in trends regarding forest use.
The possible consequences of demographic change at a national level that are identified in the studies—a decrease in the demand for wood, forests reverting to a state of
relative wilderness, a reduction in the use of local natural areas for recreation (Wurz
2007)—lose their significance when global realities are factored into the equation.
One of the consequences of generally increasing competition for land use is that
larger-scale areas will not be available for nature conservation in the future and
that wilderness areas will therefore not be a large-scale option for nature conservation. This is not to say that there may not be small-scale, positive developments in
nature conservation that can be traced back directly or indirectly to demographic
change. In certain regions, abandoned city neighborhoods and districts may present
expanded opportunities for nature conservation. Especially where protected areas and
landscapes are on the rural–urban fringe and difficult to access, there are (limited)
chances for a reduction in the intensity of use. It is expected that these areas will
experience less recreational use by regional and local populations.
4.3.2 Impacts of Demographic Change on Transportation,
Tourism, and Settlement Expansion
Parallel processes of growth and decline are expected with regard to trends in transportation and tourism infrastructure. In growing regions, steady or growing demand
will result in greater pressure on infrastructure, eventually to the point that supply is
expanded. In declining regions, pressure on infrastructure will decrease, leading to a
reduction in supply (Grimm et al. 2009a; Canzler 2007; among others). In particular
with respect to transportation, the sources conclude that, at least in the short term,
declining areas cannot do without existing infrastructure. This means that as demand
stagnates or even shrinks over the long term, infrastructure will tend to continue to