58
Table 5.5 Rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan by regions
Periods Projections
Almaty Akmola Aktobe Atyrau
East
Kazakhstan Mangystau
North
Kazakhstan Pavlodar Karagandy Kostanay Kyzylorda
South
Kazakhstan
West
Kazakhstan Zhambyl
Baseline
535
484
299
205
635
118
562
424
283
425
142
461
387
346
2030s GISSE2H-2.6
716
638
414
295
889
171
690
551
441
552
218
609
477
518
Change, %
34
32
39
44
40
46
23
30
56
30
53
32
23
50
GISSE2H-8.5
691
650
402
267
830
169
764
581
446
580
230
576
471
472
Change, %
29
34
35
30
31
43
36
37
58
37
62
25
22
36
HadGEM2ES-2.6 767
766
450
300
820
164
940
634
434
678
218
686
490
539
Change, %
43
58
51
46
29
39
67
50
54
60
53
49
26
56
HadGEM2ES-8.5 637
630
355
268
797
118
784
553
364
566
161
537
473
416
Change, %
19
30
19
31
25
0
40
31
29
33
13
17
22
20
NorESM1M-2.6 567
510
369
244
616
161
609
407
309
507
183
505
416
380
Change, %
6
5
23
19
−3
37
8
−4
9
19
29
10
7
10
NorESM1M-8.5 588
504
335
204
646
127
549
410
327
464
164
486
365
384
Change, %
10
4
12
0
2
8
−2
−3
16
9
15
6
−6
11
2050s GISSE2H-2.6
721
599
394
308
857
180
666
514
422
539
228
636
463
544
Change, %
35
24
32
50
35
53
18
21
49
27
61
38
19
57
GISSE2H-8.5
817
686
434
300
966
180
789
602
476
619
235
644
525
559
Change, %
53
42
45
46
52
53
40
42
68
46
65
40
36
62
HadGEM2ES-2.6 707
671
394
303
781
151
845
580
393
618
185
618
482
485
Change, %
32
38
32
47
23
28
50
37
39
45
30
34
24
40
HadGEM2ES-8.5 693
652
378
296
793
140
807
541
405
597
192
643
485
493
Change, %
30
35
26
44
25
19
44
28
43
40
35
40
25
43
NorESM1M-2.6 582
502
349
228
627
149
593
399
296
483
167
491
409
376
Change, %
9
4
17
11
−1
27
6
−6
5
14
17
7
6
9
NorESM1M-8.5 571
451
285
201
651
119
525
397
286
424
143
468
367
353
Change, %
7
−7
−5
−2
2
1
−7
−6
1
0
0
2
−5
2
(continued)
5 Spatiotemporal Variations and Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density…
Table 5.5 Rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan by regions
Periods Projections
Almaty Akmola Aktobe Atyrau
East
Kazakhstan Mangystau
North
Kazakhstan Pavlodar Karagandy Kostanay Kyzylorda
South
Kazakhstan
West
Kazakhstan Zhambyl
Baseline
535
484
299
205
635
118
562
424
283
425
142
461
387
346
2030s GISSE2H-2.6
716
638
414
295
889
171
690
551
441
552
218
609
477
518
Change, %
34
32
39
44
40
46
23
30
56
30
53
32
23
50
GISSE2H-8.5
691
650
402
267
830
169
764
581
446
580
230
576
471
472
Change, %
29
34
35
30
31
43
36
37
58
37
62
25
22
36
HadGEM2ES-2.6 767
766
450
300
820
164
940
634
434
678
218
686
490
539
Change, %
43
58
51
46
29
39
67
50
54
60
53
49
26
56
HadGEM2ES-8.5 637
630
355
268
797
118
784
553
364
566
161
537
473
416
Change, %
19
30
19
31
25
0
40
31
29
33
13
17
22
20
NorESM1M-2.6 567
510
369
244
616
161
609
407
309
507
183
505
416
380
Change, %
6
5
23
19
−3
37
8
−4
9
19
29
10
7
10
NorESM1M-8.5 588
504
335
204
646
127
549
410
327
464
164
486
365
384
Change, %
10
4
12
0
2
8
−2
−3
16
9
15
6
−6
11
2050s GISSE2H-2.6
721
599
394
308
857
180
666
514
422
539
228
636
463
544
Change, %
35
24
32
50
35
53
18
21
49
27
61
38
19
57
GISSE2H-8.5
817
686
434
300
966
180
789
602
476
619
235
644
525
559
Change, %
53
42
45
46
52
53
40
42
68
46
65
40
36
62
HadGEM2ES-2.6 707
671
394
303
781
151
845
580
393
618
185
618
482
485
Change, %
32
38
32
47
23
28
50
37
39
45
30
34
24
40
HadGEM2ES-8.5 693
652
378
296
793
140
807
541
405
597
192
643
485
493
Change, %
30
35
26
44
25
19
44
28
43
40
35
40
25
43
NorESM1M-2.6 582
502
349
228
627
149
593
399
296
483
167
491
409
376
Change, %
9
4
17
11
−1
27
6
−6
5
14
17
7
6
9
NorESM1M-8.5 571
451
285
201
651
119
525
397
286
424
143
468
367
353
Change, %
7
−7
−5
−2
2
1
−7
−6
1
0
0
2
−5
2
(continued)
5 Spatiotemporal Variations and Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density…