47
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland
AG 2021
E. Duulatov et al., Current and Future Trends of Rainfall Erosivity and Soil
Erosion in Central Asia, SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63509-1_5
Chapter 5
Spatiotemporal Variations and Projected
Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density
in Kazakhstan
Abstract In this chapter, the spatial-temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in
Kazakhstan in 1970–2017 was investigated. The results showed that the average
annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan over the past 48 years was 464 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
. No significant time trend was found in annual rainfall erosivity. Some of
the results presented here are relevant to the further study of potential soil erosion in
Kazakhstan. The East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, Almaty regions were under a
more significant threat of rainfall erosivity than other regions. It is important to
understand past and future differences in rainfall erosivity and its consequences in
arid and semi-arid regions, where the amount of daily precipitation is always limited. GCM scenarios (GISSE2H, HadGEM2-ES, and NorESM1M) were statistically downscaled using the delta method for three periods. This study estimated the
long-term variations in annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan using past and future
climate data. Based on the baseline climate, the average change in percent rainfall
erosivity is 26.9%, 26.4%, and 35.2% in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively.
The aggregate average annual precipitation and erosion activity for all climate models for all scenarios shows steady growth compared with the baseline climate.
Keywords Kazakhstan · Rainfall erosivity · Erosivity density · Spatiotemporal
change · Climate change · GCMs · RCPs · Trends · Baseline · Future scenarios
5.1 Physical–Geographical Characteristics of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is the largest country in Central Asia; its area is 2.7 million km
2
, and it
has 14 administrative regions (Koshim et al. 2018). Kazakhstan borders with Russia
in the north; with China in the east; with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
in the south; and with the Caspian Sea in the west. The Tien Shan and Altai
Mountains are located in eastern and southeastern Kazakhstan. The northern, western, and northwestern regions consist of plains, whereas the central part is hilly. The
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland
AG 2021
E. Duulatov et al., Current and Future Trends of Rainfall Erosivity and Soil
Erosion in Central Asia, SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63509-1_5
Chapter 5
Spatiotemporal Variations and Projected
Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density
in Kazakhstan
Abstract In this chapter, the spatial-temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in
Kazakhstan in 1970–2017 was investigated. The results showed that the average
annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan over the past 48 years was 464 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
. No significant time trend was found in annual rainfall erosivity. Some of
the results presented here are relevant to the further study of potential soil erosion in
Kazakhstan. The East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, Almaty regions were under a
more significant threat of rainfall erosivity than other regions. It is important to
understand past and future differences in rainfall erosivity and its consequences in
arid and semi-arid regions, where the amount of daily precipitation is always limited. GCM scenarios (GISSE2H, HadGEM2-ES, and NorESM1M) were statistically downscaled using the delta method for three periods. This study estimated the
long-term variations in annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan using past and future
climate data. Based on the baseline climate, the average change in percent rainfall
erosivity is 26.9%, 26.4%, and 35.2% in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively.
The aggregate average annual precipitation and erosion activity for all climate models for all scenarios shows steady growth compared with the baseline climate.
Keywords Kazakhstan · Rainfall erosivity · Erosivity density · Spatiotemporal
change · Climate change · GCMs · RCPs · Trends · Baseline · Future scenarios
5.1 Physical–Geographical Characteristics of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is the largest country in Central Asia; its area is 2.7 million km
2
, and it
has 14 administrative regions (Koshim et al. 2018). Kazakhstan borders with Russia
in the north; with China in the east; with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
in the south; and with the Caspian Sea in the west. The Tien Shan and Altai
Mountains are located in eastern and southeastern Kazakhstan. The northern, western, and northwestern regions consist of plains, whereas the central part is hilly. The