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A prediction of future soil erosion in Central Asia, using four GCMs, shows that
southwestern Central Asia appears to be a region that is more sensitive to climate
change in both periods, especially if the conditions of the RCP 8.5 scenario arise,
which correspond to the path with the greatest climatic variability and the highest
greenhouse gas emissions. The trend towards an increase in total soil runoff in this
area under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicates a future risk of erosion in
the 2030s and 2070s. The occurrence of increased soil erosion can affect local ecosystems in Central Asia and, consequently, cause hydrological changes in the rivers
originating in the mountainous areas in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, such as the Amu
Darya, Syr Darya, and Chu and Talas rivers.
We used two emission scenarios for future projections that fall at the lowest and
highest ends of all warming scenarios. However, how much warming will happen in
Central Asia is still unknown. The results of soil erosion predicted by the four
GCMs exhibit different trends in some regions in Central Asia, and this is reflected
in the high uncertainty of the projected future soil erosion. We believe that the scenarios and projection models we used would provide a useful threshold for soil
erosion in the 2030s and 2070s.
4 Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion in Central Asia
A prediction of future soil erosion in Central Asia, using four GCMs, shows that
southwestern Central Asia appears to be a region that is more sensitive to climate
change in both periods, especially if the conditions of the RCP 8.5 scenario arise,
which correspond to the path with the greatest climatic variability and the highest
greenhouse gas emissions. The trend towards an increase in total soil runoff in this
area under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicates a future risk of erosion in
the 2030s and 2070s. The occurrence of increased soil erosion can affect local ecosystems in Central Asia and, consequently, cause hydrological changes in the rivers
originating in the mountainous areas in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, such as the Amu
Darya, Syr Darya, and Chu and Talas rivers.
We used two emission scenarios for future projections that fall at the lowest and
highest ends of all warming scenarios. However, how much warming will happen in
Central Asia is still unknown. The results of soil erosion predicted by the four
GCMs exhibit different trends in some regions in Central Asia, and this is reflected
in the high uncertainty of the projected future soil erosion. We believe that the scenarios and projection models we used would provide a useful threshold for soil
erosion in the 2030s and 2070s.
4 Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion in Central Asia