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So how does the future of fossil fuel translate to the energy needs of the
developing world? Many people in third-world countries aspire to live like
populations in the industrialized world. Under-developed countries rightfully want
heat, light, refrigeration, transportation, communication and the other benefits
brought by fossil fuel and electricity. Shale gas is available in many places around
the world, and nations from South Africa to Pakistan are considering their options
for developing it, including fracking (Soeder and Borglum 2019).
Believe it or not, there are still one billion people in the world without electricity.
Many parts of the planet simply have no electrical infrastructure in place – no generators, transmission lines or power distribution systems. An additional three billion
people (over 40% of the world’s population) still rely on unhealthy fuels like wood
or coal stoves for heating and cooking. One of the “Sustainable Development
Program” goals of the United Nations (Goal 7) is to provide “affordable and clean
energy” to everyone in the world by the year 2030 (source: UN websites and
reports).
How can this be done? Fossil fuel is still the energy resource of choice in
developing nations (Brown 2019). It is cheap, the technology is well-understood
and reliable, and it is often available in-country, or easily imported. To be sure, solar
and wind are making inroads in remote, rural areas where simple solar-battery
systems can be used for low-power LED lighting in huts and houses. Solar power
can also supply chargers for mobile phones in villages where new communication
systems are skipping the telephone wire phase and going directly to cell service.
However, these low-power systems are of little use for heavy industries where the
usual question for renewables is “how do you make steel?” Industrializing nations
like China and India are substantially expanding domestic electrical capacity, where
the primary energy source for producing large quantities of industrial power so
far has been coal.
China and India are also developing robust economies and large middle classes
that want access to consumer technology and goods. Many people in these countries
aspire to live like Americans, but the math is dismal. With approximately 5% of the
world population, the United States uses nearly a quarter of the world’s energy supply. Trying to supply everyone in the world with the energy and materials needed to
live a Western lifestyle using current extraction, generation, and manufacturing
methods will exceed the capacity of the planet. In fact, it may very well exceed the
capacity of several planets and is obviously not sustainable. But then how is it right
and fair for the nations that industrialized first to take possession of all the available
resources and leave nothing for the rest of the world? Other solutions are clearly
needed and some substantial engineering problems must be solved.
Pleas by environmentalists in western nations for developing countries to forgo
GHG-emitting fossil fuels in favor of renewables like solar or wind as they electrify
are often met with derision. Any GHG emissions that might come from a thirdworld fossil-fuel power plant are a drop in the bucket compared to the developed
nations. Cheap, abundant fossil fuels allowed the economies of Western Europe,
North America, and eastern Asia to industrialize in the last century or two, leading
to substantial wealth and higher standards of living. Many people in
9.3 The Future of Fossil Fuel
So how does the future of fossil fuel translate to the energy needs of the
developing world? Many people in third-world countries aspire to live like
populations in the industrialized world. Under-developed countries rightfully want
heat, light, refrigeration, transportation, communication and the other benefits
brought by fossil fuel and electricity. Shale gas is available in many places around
the world, and nations from South Africa to Pakistan are considering their options
for developing it, including fracking (Soeder and Borglum 2019).
Believe it or not, there are still one billion people in the world without electricity.
Many parts of the planet simply have no electrical infrastructure in place – no generators, transmission lines or power distribution systems. An additional three billion
people (over 40% of the world’s population) still rely on unhealthy fuels like wood
or coal stoves for heating and cooking. One of the “Sustainable Development
Program” goals of the United Nations (Goal 7) is to provide “affordable and clean
energy” to everyone in the world by the year 2030 (source: UN websites and
reports).
How can this be done? Fossil fuel is still the energy resource of choice in
developing nations (Brown 2019). It is cheap, the technology is well-understood
and reliable, and it is often available in-country, or easily imported. To be sure, solar
and wind are making inroads in remote, rural areas where simple solar-battery
systems can be used for low-power LED lighting in huts and houses. Solar power
can also supply chargers for mobile phones in villages where new communication
systems are skipping the telephone wire phase and going directly to cell service.
However, these low-power systems are of little use for heavy industries where the
usual question for renewables is “how do you make steel?” Industrializing nations
like China and India are substantially expanding domestic electrical capacity, where
the primary energy source for producing large quantities of industrial power so
far has been coal.
China and India are also developing robust economies and large middle classes
that want access to consumer technology and goods. Many people in these countries
aspire to live like Americans, but the math is dismal. With approximately 5% of the
world population, the United States uses nearly a quarter of the world’s energy supply. Trying to supply everyone in the world with the energy and materials needed to
live a Western lifestyle using current extraction, generation, and manufacturing
methods will exceed the capacity of the planet. In fact, it may very well exceed the
capacity of several planets and is obviously not sustainable. But then how is it right
and fair for the nations that industrialized first to take possession of all the available
resources and leave nothing for the rest of the world? Other solutions are clearly
needed and some substantial engineering problems must be solved.
Pleas by environmentalists in western nations for developing countries to forgo
GHG-emitting fossil fuels in favor of renewables like solar or wind as they electrify
are often met with derision. Any GHG emissions that might come from a thirdworld fossil-fuel power plant are a drop in the bucket compared to the developed
nations. Cheap, abundant fossil fuels allowed the economies of Western Europe,
North America, and eastern Asia to industrialize in the last century or two, leading
to substantial wealth and higher standards of living. Many people in
9.3 The Future of Fossil Fuel