2 Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios …
25
Review of the Policy Document
The NCs submitted by the government of Indonesia to some extent has utilized the
scenario projection. The second NC utilized the SRES scenario. It suggests that under
the scenario of SRES A2, where GHG emission is increasing, most of the models
are suggesting that in 2025, there will be increasing wet seasonal rainfall in several
regions in Indonesia (i.e. Java, Bali, NTB, NTT and Papua), and other regions will
decrease. Moreover, it is predicted that by 2050 and 2080, Indonesian regions will
mostly experience higher rainfall, with exceptions in the northern parts of Sumatra
and Kalimantan. Meanwhile, for dry season rainfall, especially in West Java and
South Sumatra, it might be decreasing in 2025, increasing in 2050, and decreasing
by 2080. If it achieves the low emission scenario (SRESB1), the dynamics will be
lower (see Republic of Indonesia 2010; pp. IV-4). Following the first NC (Republic of
Indonesia nd), the third NC (Republic of Indonesia 2017) uses the RCPs (i.e. temperatures, sea-level rise, seasonal rainfall among others), while the socio-economic as
drivers and impact is still centred around the GDP (Republic of Indonesia 2017).
Despite the apparent use of the scenario, however, there is no detail elaboration in
the third NC on the SSPs method and its values for future policy design. Based on
our analysis, although there is an increasing effort to mainstream climate change into
different sectors, it is still perceived in singularity. There is an opportunity for future
research agenda to test implementation across governing actors and jurisdictions.
Discussion
Opportunities and Challenges on Using SSPs and Other
Models of Socio-Economic Scenarios to Help
as Decision-Making Tools in DRR
Opportunities
The advanced list of elements derived from worldwide case study reviews on socioeconomic impacts of climate change and disaster (see Table 2.1) shows that there is a
huge opportunity to use the SSP for future projection. Socio-economic variables relevant for determining pathways and scenario for CC in disaster perspective are more
or less similar with the SSPs determined variables, with a strong focus on risk component (e.g. socio-economic vulnerability of certain category of population, the susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive institutions determinants such as preparedness,
social capital, institutional settings and policies). Furthermore, the current focus on
socio-economic drivers and impact for future pathways and scenarios on CCA-DRR
in Indonesia is still too general and mainly focusing on economic variables (i.e.
GDP) instead of other important variables such as loss and damage factors (i.e. both
economic and social assets), environment (i.e. ecosystem approach for DRR, CCA
25
Review of the Policy Document
The NCs submitted by the government of Indonesia to some extent has utilized the
scenario projection. The second NC utilized the SRES scenario. It suggests that under
the scenario of SRES A2, where GHG emission is increasing, most of the models
are suggesting that in 2025, there will be increasing wet seasonal rainfall in several
regions in Indonesia (i.e. Java, Bali, NTB, NTT and Papua), and other regions will
decrease. Moreover, it is predicted that by 2050 and 2080, Indonesian regions will
mostly experience higher rainfall, with exceptions in the northern parts of Sumatra
and Kalimantan. Meanwhile, for dry season rainfall, especially in West Java and
South Sumatra, it might be decreasing in 2025, increasing in 2050, and decreasing
by 2080. If it achieves the low emission scenario (SRESB1), the dynamics will be
lower (see Republic of Indonesia 2010; pp. IV-4). Following the first NC (Republic of
Indonesia nd), the third NC (Republic of Indonesia 2017) uses the RCPs (i.e. temperatures, sea-level rise, seasonal rainfall among others), while the socio-economic as
drivers and impact is still centred around the GDP (Republic of Indonesia 2017).
Despite the apparent use of the scenario, however, there is no detail elaboration in
the third NC on the SSPs method and its values for future policy design. Based on
our analysis, although there is an increasing effort to mainstream climate change into
different sectors, it is still perceived in singularity. There is an opportunity for future
research agenda to test implementation across governing actors and jurisdictions.
Discussion
Opportunities and Challenges on Using SSPs and Other
Models of Socio-Economic Scenarios to Help
as Decision-Making Tools in DRR
Opportunities
The advanced list of elements derived from worldwide case study reviews on socioeconomic impacts of climate change and disaster (see Table 2.1) shows that there is a
huge opportunity to use the SSP for future projection. Socio-economic variables relevant for determining pathways and scenario for CC in disaster perspective are more
or less similar with the SSPs determined variables, with a strong focus on risk component (e.g. socio-economic vulnerability of certain category of population, the susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive institutions determinants such as preparedness,
social capital, institutional settings and policies). Furthermore, the current focus on
socio-economic drivers and impact for future pathways and scenarios on CCA-DRR
in Indonesia is still too general and mainly focusing on economic variables (i.e.
GDP) instead of other important variables such as loss and damage factors (i.e. both
economic and social assets), environment (i.e. ecosystem approach for DRR, CCA