in the longer term. To address the requirements
of the energy revolution, production needs to be
safe, efficient and sustainable. In mining, coal
production will shift from extensive development
to intensive, green production. In conversion,
priority will be given to upgrading coal-fired
generation from high to ultra-low emissions.
Taking into account the geology, coal
reserves, water resources and ecology of China’s
coal-producing regions, the one-third of coal
mines that meet the criteria for scientific capacity
will be retained, the one-third that fail to meet the
criteria will be upgraded, and the one-third that
are backward or not possible to be upgraded will
be gradually shut down.
3.3.2 Maintain Steady Development
of Oil Supply Capacity
Although EV development can significantly
reduce future oil demand, in the Recommended
scenario China’s oil demand and oil processing
capacity peaks will exceed 650 Mt and 720 Mt
respectively in 2030. Even in 2050, China’s oil
demand will still be around 650 Mt. Currently,
China’s oil processing capacity has been close to
its peak, so it is necessary to continue to constrain total demand and accelerate the shift from
oil refining to chemical production.
3.3.3 Significantly Increase Gas Supply
Capacity
In the future, China’s natural gas demand is
expected to see fast growth. To ensure that
demand can be met, which will increase as gas is
substituted for scattered coal, supply capacity
must be significantly improved. It is forecast that
260 billion cubic metres (bcm), 450 bcm and 490
bcm of natural gas will be needed by 2020, 2030
and 2050 respectively.
2 Therefore, China needs
to vigorously explore and exploit conventional
gas, tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane,
and drive research forward into natural gas
hydrate exploitation technologies.
3.3.4 Develop Clean Energy (Mostly
Renewable Energy)
in a Well-Planned Manner
China’s clean energy sources and load centres
are located in west and east China respectively.
As the energy supply revolution progresses, the
development of clean energy in these two regions
should be coordinated.
First, there needs to be coordination between
renewable energy generation and transmission
and distribution networks to connect regions rich
in renewables to demand centres, provide energy
storage to manage intermittency, and optimise
demand (including the use of demand-side
response to manage peaks and intermittency).
Second, a mix of multiple sources of energy
and technologies is needed to ensure a stable
supply of electricity. These would include small
wind farms; solar photovoltaic; combined cooling, heat and power plants; and others.
Third, collaboration across the entire electricity supply chain (generators, grid operators
and consumers) is essential to optimise supply,
distribution and consumption.
Fourth, in west China, energy should be
generated at large utility-scale renewables plants
and connected to national and regional transmission and distribution networks. In east and
central China, generation should be smaller scale
—distributed renewables and low carbon in
microgrids or community power grids.
3.4 Gradually Establish an Energy
Mix Centred on Conversion
to Electricity
In the end-use energy mix, electricity’s share will
progressively increase from 22% in 2015 to 30%
by 2030, and then to around 38% by 2050. This
electricity-centred energy mix is made possible
mainly by the rapid development of clean power
technologies and clean coal utilisation (Fig. 21).
2
Research on China's Gas Development Strategies, published by China Development Press in 2016 and by
Springer in 2017, forecasts China’s gas output to reach
270 bcm in 2020 and 470 bcm in 2030.
Overview: High-Quality Energy for High-Quality Growth …
21
of the energy revolution, production needs to be
safe, efficient and sustainable. In mining, coal
production will shift from extensive development
to intensive, green production. In conversion,
priority will be given to upgrading coal-fired
generation from high to ultra-low emissions.
Taking into account the geology, coal
reserves, water resources and ecology of China’s
coal-producing regions, the one-third of coal
mines that meet the criteria for scientific capacity
will be retained, the one-third that fail to meet the
criteria will be upgraded, and the one-third that
are backward or not possible to be upgraded will
be gradually shut down.
3.3.2 Maintain Steady Development
of Oil Supply Capacity
Although EV development can significantly
reduce future oil demand, in the Recommended
scenario China’s oil demand and oil processing
capacity peaks will exceed 650 Mt and 720 Mt
respectively in 2030. Even in 2050, China’s oil
demand will still be around 650 Mt. Currently,
China’s oil processing capacity has been close to
its peak, so it is necessary to continue to constrain total demand and accelerate the shift from
oil refining to chemical production.
3.3.3 Significantly Increase Gas Supply
Capacity
In the future, China’s natural gas demand is
expected to see fast growth. To ensure that
demand can be met, which will increase as gas is
substituted for scattered coal, supply capacity
must be significantly improved. It is forecast that
260 billion cubic metres (bcm), 450 bcm and 490
bcm of natural gas will be needed by 2020, 2030
and 2050 respectively.
2 Therefore, China needs
to vigorously explore and exploit conventional
gas, tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane,
and drive research forward into natural gas
hydrate exploitation technologies.
3.3.4 Develop Clean Energy (Mostly
Renewable Energy)
in a Well-Planned Manner
China’s clean energy sources and load centres
are located in west and east China respectively.
As the energy supply revolution progresses, the
development of clean energy in these two regions
should be coordinated.
First, there needs to be coordination between
renewable energy generation and transmission
and distribution networks to connect regions rich
in renewables to demand centres, provide energy
storage to manage intermittency, and optimise
demand (including the use of demand-side
response to manage peaks and intermittency).
Second, a mix of multiple sources of energy
and technologies is needed to ensure a stable
supply of electricity. These would include small
wind farms; solar photovoltaic; combined cooling, heat and power plants; and others.
Third, collaboration across the entire electricity supply chain (generators, grid operators
and consumers) is essential to optimise supply,
distribution and consumption.
Fourth, in west China, energy should be
generated at large utility-scale renewables plants
and connected to national and regional transmission and distribution networks. In east and
central China, generation should be smaller scale
—distributed renewables and low carbon in
microgrids or community power grids.
3.4 Gradually Establish an Energy
Mix Centred on Conversion
to Electricity
In the end-use energy mix, electricity’s share will
progressively increase from 22% in 2015 to 30%
by 2030, and then to around 38% by 2050. This
electricity-centred energy mix is made possible
mainly by the rapid development of clean power
technologies and clean coal utilisation (Fig. 21).
2
Research on China's Gas Development Strategies, published by China Development Press in 2016 and by
Springer in 2017, forecasts China’s gas output to reach
270 bcm in 2020 and 470 bcm in 2030.
Overview: High-Quality Energy for High-Quality Growth …
21