3.4.1 Increase the Proportion
of Renewable Energy
(Mostly Wind, Solar
and Biomass) and Nuclear
Power
Based on an optimal design of the future power
supply mix, the research team recommends the
following
roadmap
for
clean
energy
development:
• the proportion of wind power and solar photovoltaic will increase from 4.9% in 2015 to
about 15% in 2030 and more than 25% by
2050;
• the share of gas-fired power will increase
steadily from 3% in 2015 to 9% in 2030 and
around 10% by 2050; and
• although hydropower capacity will continue
to grow, the rapid development of other
power sources will lower its share of the
energy mix from 17% in 2015 to 14% in 2030
and around 13.5% by 2050.
Overall, the proportion of clean power, not
fuelled by coal or oil, will increase from 30% in
2015 to 38% in 2020 and 52% by 2030. By
2050, non-fossil fuel generation will increase to
more than 70% of installed capacity and 66% of
power output.
In the medium term, total consumption of coal
as a primary energy source will not change
greatly, but its share of energy supply will
decrease sharply. The energy supply revolution
will drive the shift from direct coal use to its
conversion into an electricity-oriented secondary
energy source of efficient and clean coal
utilisation.
3.4.2 Encourage the Substitution
of Non-fossil Fuel Energy
for Oil and Coal
Coal consumption will fall sharply from about
44% in 2015 to 27% by 2050. Oil consumption
will first increase and then decrease, returning to
its current share of around 16% at mid-century.
Natural gas, which is a cleaner energy source
than coal and oil, will enjoy rapid growth in the
medium term, rising to 15% in 2030 and staying
stable thereafter. Non-fossil fuel energy will
increase substantially, rising to more than 20% in
Fig. 21 Changes in China’s end-use energy mix in the Recommended scenario. Source Findings of the DRC research
team
22
X. Zhaoyuan and M. Ishwaran
of Renewable Energy
(Mostly Wind, Solar
and Biomass) and Nuclear
Power
Based on an optimal design of the future power
supply mix, the research team recommends the
following
roadmap
for
clean
energy
development:
• the proportion of wind power and solar photovoltaic will increase from 4.9% in 2015 to
about 15% in 2030 and more than 25% by
2050;
• the share of gas-fired power will increase
steadily from 3% in 2015 to 9% in 2030 and
around 10% by 2050; and
• although hydropower capacity will continue
to grow, the rapid development of other
power sources will lower its share of the
energy mix from 17% in 2015 to 14% in 2030
and around 13.5% by 2050.
Overall, the proportion of clean power, not
fuelled by coal or oil, will increase from 30% in
2015 to 38% in 2020 and 52% by 2030. By
2050, non-fossil fuel generation will increase to
more than 70% of installed capacity and 66% of
power output.
In the medium term, total consumption of coal
as a primary energy source will not change
greatly, but its share of energy supply will
decrease sharply. The energy supply revolution
will drive the shift from direct coal use to its
conversion into an electricity-oriented secondary
energy source of efficient and clean coal
utilisation.
3.4.2 Encourage the Substitution
of Non-fossil Fuel Energy
for Oil and Coal
Coal consumption will fall sharply from about
44% in 2015 to 27% by 2050. Oil consumption
will first increase and then decrease, returning to
its current share of around 16% at mid-century.
Natural gas, which is a cleaner energy source
than coal and oil, will enjoy rapid growth in the
medium term, rising to 15% in 2030 and staying
stable thereafter. Non-fossil fuel energy will
increase substantially, rising to more than 20% in
Fig. 21 Changes in China’s end-use energy mix in the Recommended scenario. Source Findings of the DRC research
team
22
X. Zhaoyuan and M. Ishwaran