system and, in those countries where the most
change has occurred, there has been significant
effort to get the conditions right for large-scale
application. This experience demonstrates that
policymakers must consider factors other than
technology that trigger revolutionary energy
system change.
Successful innovation is the key first stage
that benefits from policy support. Innovation is a
complex process, and is undertaken by a network
of stakeholders, with at least four distinct stages.
First, research and development (R&D)—where
original ideas are developed and combined.
Second, demonstration—where successful combinations of ideas are tested to see if they can
deliver a viable product. Third, niche markets—
where technology is deployed at a small scale,
often in areas where the performance of the new
product is valued over the low costs of existing
options, facilitating the route-to-market. Fourth,
wide
deployment—where technology
is
mass-produced and costs can compete with
existing options. The risk of failure at each stage
is high, and technology often falls back to an
earlier stage, only to be combined with a new
idea or champion that enables the technology to
progress again.
International experience of best practice for
accelerating innovation is a rich and important
topic that may be worthy of specific focus for
learnings, as China has significant innovation
capabilities that should be put to best use.
However, this study focuses on how technology
can be successfully applied once innovation has
occurred. This is because without the conditions
for successful application, innovation efforts are
wasted, and these conditions for successful
application are interconnected with the goals of
China’s energy revolution.
5.2 Drawing on International
Experience
This study uses quantitative analysis to evaluate
the role of technology in delivering changes to
the energy system and to summarise the related
international experience and the implications for
China.
5.2.1 Quantitative Analysis
(1) Definition of revolutionary energy
technology
As technology and energy revolutions are complex, so too is the methodology for testing the
role of technology in past energy revolutions.
A revolutionary energy technology is the application of scientific knowledge that transforms the
primary or secondary energy carrier mix relied
on by societies to produce, generate and consume
energy. The figure below shows how our work
focuses on energy technologies, which are a
subset of general technologies. Within energy
technologies, our work focuses on revolutionary
energy technologies that transform the fuel mix.
This study does not consider energy technologies
that increase the scale of energy production,
generation or consumption. Such technologies
are important, but the primary challenge for
China and other countries in the coming decades
is changing the fuel mix, rather than increasing
scale. Therefore, our focus is on technologies
that change the fuel mix (Fig. 18).
(2) Innovation level
We quantify innovation levels using metrics of
hype and R&D. On the one hand, we quantify
hype using the frequency of citations of a technology in English language sources since 1970.
These data are from Google Ngrams, a dataset of
all words cited in written sources digitalised by
the Google Books programme up to 2012. On the
other hand, we quantify R&D activity using
International Energy Agency (IEA) data on
public R&D expenditure in OECD countries
since 1970. Innovation levels are quantified for
hype and R&D for 12 technologies: biofuels,
carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy storage, fuel cells, geothermal power, hydropower,
hydrogen, industrial energy efficiency, power
from nuclear fission, power from nuclear fusion,
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
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change has occurred, there has been significant
effort to get the conditions right for large-scale
application. This experience demonstrates that
policymakers must consider factors other than
technology that trigger revolutionary energy
system change.
Successful innovation is the key first stage
that benefits from policy support. Innovation is a
complex process, and is undertaken by a network
of stakeholders, with at least four distinct stages.
First, research and development (R&D)—where
original ideas are developed and combined.
Second, demonstration—where successful combinations of ideas are tested to see if they can
deliver a viable product. Third, niche markets—
where technology is deployed at a small scale,
often in areas where the performance of the new
product is valued over the low costs of existing
options, facilitating the route-to-market. Fourth,
wide
deployment—where technology
is
mass-produced and costs can compete with
existing options. The risk of failure at each stage
is high, and technology often falls back to an
earlier stage, only to be combined with a new
idea or champion that enables the technology to
progress again.
International experience of best practice for
accelerating innovation is a rich and important
topic that may be worthy of specific focus for
learnings, as China has significant innovation
capabilities that should be put to best use.
However, this study focuses on how technology
can be successfully applied once innovation has
occurred. This is because without the conditions
for successful application, innovation efforts are
wasted, and these conditions for successful
application are interconnected with the goals of
China’s energy revolution.
5.2 Drawing on International
Experience
This study uses quantitative analysis to evaluate
the role of technology in delivering changes to
the energy system and to summarise the related
international experience and the implications for
China.
5.2.1 Quantitative Analysis
(1) Definition of revolutionary energy
technology
As technology and energy revolutions are complex, so too is the methodology for testing the
role of technology in past energy revolutions.
A revolutionary energy technology is the application of scientific knowledge that transforms the
primary or secondary energy carrier mix relied
on by societies to produce, generate and consume
energy. The figure below shows how our work
focuses on energy technologies, which are a
subset of general technologies. Within energy
technologies, our work focuses on revolutionary
energy technologies that transform the fuel mix.
This study does not consider energy technologies
that increase the scale of energy production,
generation or consumption. Such technologies
are important, but the primary challenge for
China and other countries in the coming decades
is changing the fuel mix, rather than increasing
scale. Therefore, our focus is on technologies
that change the fuel mix (Fig. 18).
(2) Innovation level
We quantify innovation levels using metrics of
hype and R&D. On the one hand, we quantify
hype using the frequency of citations of a technology in English language sources since 1970.
These data are from Google Ngrams, a dataset of
all words cited in written sources digitalised by
the Google Books programme up to 2012. On the
other hand, we quantify R&D activity using
International Energy Agency (IEA) data on
public R&D expenditure in OECD countries
since 1970. Innovation levels are quantified for
hype and R&D for 12 technologies: biofuels,
carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy storage, fuel cells, geothermal power, hydropower,
hydrogen, industrial energy efficiency, power
from nuclear fission, power from nuclear fusion,
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
315