Industry
• Industry has limited scope for electrification.
• Electric arc furnaces hold promise in steelmaking, but further R&D is necessary to
support deployment.
• However, technical limitations and low capital turnover rates limit scope elsewhere
(Fig. 59).
6.4 China’s Electrification Potential
China’s electrification rate could rise to 32% by
2050 given macroeconomic drivers, or to 40–
48% given decarbonisation drivers.
• Income effect: +5.5%
• Technology: +6.4%
• Structural change: −2.6%
Fig. 58 Several decarbonisation scenarios suggest up to
two-thirds of energy demand in OECD buildings could be
electrified by 2050. Source IEA ETP 2017; GEA Energy
pathways for sustainable development (2014); Greenpeace Energy Outlook 2015
Fig. 59 Less than a third of OECD industry energy demand will be electrified in 2050, according to the IEA Beyond
2°C Scenario. Source International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, Beyond 2°C Scenario (2017)
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283
• Industry has limited scope for electrification.
• Electric arc furnaces hold promise in steelmaking, but further R&D is necessary to
support deployment.
• However, technical limitations and low capital turnover rates limit scope elsewhere
(Fig. 59).
6.4 China’s Electrification Potential
China’s electrification rate could rise to 32% by
2050 given macroeconomic drivers, or to 40–
48% given decarbonisation drivers.
• Income effect: +5.5%
• Technology: +6.4%
• Structural change: −2.6%
Fig. 58 Several decarbonisation scenarios suggest up to
two-thirds of energy demand in OECD buildings could be
electrified by 2050. Source IEA ETP 2017; GEA Energy
pathways for sustainable development (2014); Greenpeace Energy Outlook 2015
Fig. 59 Less than a third of OECD industry energy demand will be electrified in 2050, according to the IEA Beyond
2°C Scenario. Source International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, Beyond 2°C Scenario (2017)
Special Report 2: Research on China’s Energy Demand Revolution
283