Fig. 43
Evolution of China’s non-fossil energy development in
different policy scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
Fig. 44
China’s coal consumption in 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
Fig. 45
China’s annual coal consumption, trend and forecast . . . . . . 267
Fig. 46
China’s production and consumption of oil and major oil
products, 2000–15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
Fig. 47
China’s oil consumption growth rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
Fig. 48
China’s natural gas consumption in 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Fig. 49
China’s natural gas consumption, 2001–30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Fig. 50
Electrification rates tend to increase with income, with
China achieving rapid electrification over a short period
of time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
Fig. 51
Technological progress has historically been the most
important driver of electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
Fig. 52
Sectors have different power intensities, which are
expected to increase over time with new technology
and higher incomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
Fig. 53
Structural change tends to shift activity to less
power-intensive sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
Fig. 54
Country-specific characteristics affect the potential
for electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
Fig. 55
Income effect on electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Fig. 56
China’s electrification rate could increase
from 23 to 32% by 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Fig. 57
The share of passenger electric vehicles is expected to be
more than 60% by 2050, due to falling battery costs . . . . . . 282
Fig. 58
Several decarbonisation scenarios suggest up to
two-thirds of energy demand in OECD buildings could
be electrified by 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Fig. 59
Less than a third of OECD industry energy demand will
be electrified in 2050, according to the IEA Beyond 2°C
Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Fig. 60
China’s electrification rate could rise to 32% by 2050
given macroeconomic drivers, or to 40–48% given
decarbonisation drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
Fig. 1
Technology innovation can have long lead times. . . . . . . . . 291
Fig. 2
Small-capacity investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
Fig. 3
Four stages of innovation pathway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
Fig. 4
Innovations can be assessed on their final outcome . . . . . . . 298
Fig. 5
Denmark successfully delivered innovation
in wind power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Fig. 6
Germany eventually successfully deployed
wind capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Fig. 7
Synfuels in the USA ended as a slow failure . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
List of Figures
xxvii xxvii
Evolution of China’s non-fossil energy development in
different policy scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
Fig. 44
China’s coal consumption in 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
Fig. 45
China’s annual coal consumption, trend and forecast . . . . . . 267
Fig. 46
China’s production and consumption of oil and major oil
products, 2000–15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
Fig. 47
China’s oil consumption growth rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
Fig. 48
China’s natural gas consumption in 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Fig. 49
China’s natural gas consumption, 2001–30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Fig. 50
Electrification rates tend to increase with income, with
China achieving rapid electrification over a short period
of time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
Fig. 51
Technological progress has historically been the most
important driver of electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
Fig. 52
Sectors have different power intensities, which are
expected to increase over time with new technology
and higher incomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
Fig. 53
Structural change tends to shift activity to less
power-intensive sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
Fig. 54
Country-specific characteristics affect the potential
for electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
Fig. 55
Income effect on electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Fig. 56
China’s electrification rate could increase
from 23 to 32% by 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Fig. 57
The share of passenger electric vehicles is expected to be
more than 60% by 2050, due to falling battery costs . . . . . . 282
Fig. 58
Several decarbonisation scenarios suggest up to
two-thirds of energy demand in OECD buildings could
be electrified by 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Fig. 59
Less than a third of OECD industry energy demand will
be electrified in 2050, according to the IEA Beyond 2°C
Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Fig. 60
China’s electrification rate could rise to 32% by 2050
given macroeconomic drivers, or to 40–48% given
decarbonisation drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
Special Report 3: A Study of China’s Technology Revolution
Fig. 1
Technology innovation can have long lead times. . . . . . . . . 291
Fig. 2
Small-capacity investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
Fig. 3
Four stages of innovation pathway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
Fig. 4
Innovations can be assessed on their final outcome . . . . . . . 298
Fig. 5
Denmark successfully delivered innovation
in wind power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Fig. 6
Germany eventually successfully deployed
wind capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Fig. 7
Synfuels in the USA ended as a slow failure . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
List of Figures
xxvii xxvii