Fig. 19
Cross-study comparison of China’s economic
expectations by 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
Fig. 20
Energy demand and carbon emissions path in the
Baseline scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
Fig. 21
Energy structure in the Moderate scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Fig. 22
Energy technology share path in the Moderate
scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Fig. 23
Impact of different incentive polices on the evolution of
energy technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Fig. 24
Impact of non-fossil energy technology on
carbon emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
Fig. 25
The relationship between policy optimisation
and peak carbon emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
Fig. 26
The relationship between policy optimisation
and the non-fossil energy development goal . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
Fig. 27
The relationship between the peak carbon emission
and non-fossil energy development goals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
Fig. 28
Impact of policy choice on China’s macroeconomy under
the energy and climate policy goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
Fig. 29
Evolution of China’s total coal consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
Fig. 30
Price movements in the coal market of major countries
and regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
Fig. 31
Evolution of China’s oil consumption and dependence
on oil imports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
Fig. 32
Crude oil spot prices in major countries and regions . . . . . . 247
Fig. 33
Development paths for installed capacity of renewable
energy in China and the world. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
Fig. 34
Evolution of solar PV and wind power generation costs
(LCOE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Fig. 35
Evolution of wind and solar power consumption
in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
Fig. 36
Price trends in China’s seven pilot carbon markets . . . . . . . 252
Fig. 37
Evolution of fossil energy prices in three scenarios . . . . . . . 253
Fig. 38
Evolution of total energy demand, energy mix and
energy intensity for different fossil energy price paths . . . . . 254
Fig. 39
Total energy demand, energy mix and energy intensity
in different non-fossil energy technology
evolution scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
Fig. 40
The effects of carbon pricing and non-fossil energy
subsidies on total energy demand and the energy mix . . . . . 257
Fig. 41
Evolution of China’s future carbon emissions intensity in
different policy scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
Fig. 42
Evolution of China’s future carbon emission paths in
different policy scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
xxvi
List of Figures
xxvi