Fig. 105 Norway’s oil and gas production is projected to be stable
until 2020; longer-term forecasts are conditional on
climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Fig. 106 DONG Energy’s average return on capital (ROC) has
been higher than the average ROC in oil and gas over the
past 10 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
Fig. 107 Improving the operational flexibility of conventional
power plants has been in focus for 20 years
in Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
Fig. 108 Denmark’s oil production is projected to continue
to decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Special Report 2: Research on China’s Energy Demand Revolution
Fig. 1
No need for energy demand growth in quantity when
GDP per capita reaches a moderately prosperous level . . . . 214
Fig. 2
Predictions of US energy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Fig. 3
Changes in China’s 2030 energy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
Fig. 4
Not all sectors can see improvement in both
the flexibility and cleanliness of energy carriers. . . . . . . . . . 216
Fig. 5
Comparison of China’s transport model with
international experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
Fig. 6
Higher population density can restrict transport service
demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
Fig. 7
China’s steel demand exceeds that of most countries . . . . . . 220
Fig. 8
Physical capital investment is a key factor in China’s
industrial energy demand pathway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
Fig. 9
China’s current building energy service demand is
consistent with international experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Fig. 10
China’s meat consumption is consistent with
international experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
Fig. 11
Urbanisation and accompanying cold-storage supply
chains are two key drivers of meat consumption . . . . . . . . . 222
Fig. 12
Demand for key services develops differently with
economic growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
Fig. 13
Rising income can drive improvements in fuel quality
when there are no trade-offs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
Fig. 14
Electric transport is less flexible than internal combustion
engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
Fig. 15
China’s average home size indicates higher
population density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Fig. 16
Block diagram of the optimal 3E integrated system
model for growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
Fig. 17
Relationship between energy structure and technical
substitution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Fig. 18
China’s macroeconomic development in the Baseline
scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
List of Figures
xxv xxv