fairly constant. The lack of decline in oil use
relates to ongoing increases in travel in the USA,
barely offset by increases in energy efficiency
and fuel-switching in that sector.
In energy production (Fig. 64), natural gas
will continue to rise steadily, keeping prices low,
while oil will plateau but avoid a decline as new
capacity comes online. The steady rise in
renewable energy production is enough to compensate for the decline in coal production by
2040, but remains far below oil and gas
production.
In terms of electricity production, renewables
—specifically wind and solar power—are
expected to rise dramatically (Fig. 65), with wind
passing hydro as the leading source by 2020 and
remaining the top source to 2040, despite
plateauing in 2025. Solar rises steadily, with both
utility-scale and end-use applications growing at
a rapid rate over the timeframe.
Even EIA “side cases”, such as the high oil
price case and the low economic growth case,
show relatively little decline in CO 2 over the
timeframe (Fig. 66).
The U.S. Department of Energy released a
very different vision of the future at the end of
the Obama Administration in 2016: The United
States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization. This featured a major shift to electricity across the energy economy, with deep
decarbonisation of electricity largely due to faster
renewables growth than in the EIA Reference
case. It also included very strong increases in
transport efficiency and slower demand growth,
coupled with a shift away from oil towards
electricity and biofuels. This combination, with
some supporting measures in other sectors, provides a pathway for an 80% reduction in CO 2 by
2050, but achieving this would require much
stronger policies than exist today (Fig. 67).
2. The USA and China
Our key findings on the USA that have implications for China include:
• the rise in US shale oil (horizontal fracking)
production has greatly increased domestic oil
supply and lowered natural gas prices, both of
which are absent in China;
• the increase in natural gas and renewable
electricity generation (and slower demand
growth) has enabled a more rapid decline in
coal use than has been possible in China;
Fig. 64 Energy production (Reference case) in quadrillion British thermal units. Source EIA (2017)
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
181
relates to ongoing increases in travel in the USA,
barely offset by increases in energy efficiency
and fuel-switching in that sector.
In energy production (Fig. 64), natural gas
will continue to rise steadily, keeping prices low,
while oil will plateau but avoid a decline as new
capacity comes online. The steady rise in
renewable energy production is enough to compensate for the decline in coal production by
2040, but remains far below oil and gas
production.
In terms of electricity production, renewables
—specifically wind and solar power—are
expected to rise dramatically (Fig. 65), with wind
passing hydro as the leading source by 2020 and
remaining the top source to 2040, despite
plateauing in 2025. Solar rises steadily, with both
utility-scale and end-use applications growing at
a rapid rate over the timeframe.
Even EIA “side cases”, such as the high oil
price case and the low economic growth case,
show relatively little decline in CO 2 over the
timeframe (Fig. 66).
The U.S. Department of Energy released a
very different vision of the future at the end of
the Obama Administration in 2016: The United
States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization. This featured a major shift to electricity across the energy economy, with deep
decarbonisation of electricity largely due to faster
renewables growth than in the EIA Reference
case. It also included very strong increases in
transport efficiency and slower demand growth,
coupled with a shift away from oil towards
electricity and biofuels. This combination, with
some supporting measures in other sectors, provides a pathway for an 80% reduction in CO 2 by
2050, but achieving this would require much
stronger policies than exist today (Fig. 67).
2. The USA and China
Our key findings on the USA that have implications for China include:
• the rise in US shale oil (horizontal fracking)
production has greatly increased domestic oil
supply and lowered natural gas prices, both of
which are absent in China;
• the increase in natural gas and renewable
electricity generation (and slower demand
growth) has enabled a more rapid decline in
coal use than has been possible in China;
Fig. 64 Energy production (Reference case) in quadrillion British thermal units. Source EIA (2017)
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
181