solar technologies mature, the growth potential
of solar heating increases. If solar heating
maintains the same growth rate as envisaged in
the 13th Five-Year Plan, the surface area of solar
thermal collectors will reach 1.2 billion square
metres by 2030, replacing 144 Mtce of energy.
Biomass heating. The use of agricultural and
forestry waste will gradually shift from power
generation to biomass-fired combined heat and
power (CHP) and biomass heating. Biomass
heating will be fuelled mainly by biomass
briquette-fired boilers, thereby helping to displace industrial coal-fired boilers. According to
the China Biomass Energy Technology Development Roadmap 2050, China’s installed
capacity of power generation from agricultural
and forestry biomass will reach about 5 GW in
2020 and around 8 GW in 2030, equivalent to
4.2 Mtce and 8.96 Mtce respectively.
13 The heat
supplied from biomass briquette-fired boilers will
be 600 petajoules (PJ) in 2020 and 1,000 PJ in
2030, enough to replace 20.5 Mtce and 34.2
Mtce of conventional energy in the heating
market. Based on the above, biomass heating will
amount to 24.7 Mtce in 2020 and 43.16 Mtce in
2030.
Geothermal heating. Given the current state
of geothermal energy and technology development, China’s future geothermal heating strategy
will focus on shallow geothermal energy (the
upper few metres of the ground), which can be
developed to heat the cold areas of north China.
If geothermal heating maintains an annual
growth rate of 12% in 2016-20, the surface area
heated by geothermal energy will approach 900
million square metres in 2020, replacing 13.2
Mtce of conventional energy. If it maintains
annual growth of 15% in 2021-30, the surface
area heated will be close to 3.6 billion square
metres in 2030, replacing 53.5 Mtce of conventional energy.
5.1.3 Oil Products
(1) Oil product marketisation will accelerate
Marketisation of oil products will accelerate in the
future, resulting in the following changes in policy: (i) the oil product import and export market
will be deregulated; (ii) oil product pricing will be
deregulated; (iii) mixed ownership will be initiated to encourage and attract private capital in the
upstream, midstream and downstream oil and gas
industry, thereby promoting diversification of
market participants; and iv) the introduction of oil
product futures will be accelerated. The aim is first
to meet demand in the oil refining sector before
deregulating the oil product import and export
markets. This will benefit downstream users and
facilitate the orderly development of crude oil and
oil product markets. Full oil product marketisation
will be possible by 2030.
(2) Demand growth for petrol and diesel will
gradually slow down
Petrol and diesel in China are mainly used by motor
vehicles, so vehicle ownership numbers directly
determine the amount of petrol and diesel consumed. The CNPC Petrochemical Research Institute
has forecast that vehicle ownership will maintain an
annual growth rate of about 12% to 2020. The
number of vehicles owned is expected to rise from
173 million in 2015 to 266 million in 2020 and 300
million in 2030. By 2050, the share of EVs in passenger vehicle ownership will exceed a third.
(3) Diesel demand will flatten
China is still a developing economy. As such, its
economy is still growing rapidly and so too is its
need for energy. Diesel consumption in China has
yet to peak. According to the scenarios of Zhang
Hailing of the Institute of Policy and Management
of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in the High
Regular Consumption scenario,
14 diesel use will
peak in 2020–25 at 174 Mt and decline slowly
13
If the share of CHP in China’s total power output from
burning agricultural and forestry biomass were to be 60%
in 2020 and 80% in 2030, the installed capacity of
biomass-fired CHP systems would reach 3 GW and 6.4
GW in 2020 and 2030 respectively. If these CHP systems
operate 6,000 h annually, they would provide enough
heat for 150 days.
14
In this scenario, the economy and population grow
rapidly. Economic development and income growth are
the priorities. Lifestyle trends are consumption-oriented.
As oil supply security and environmental problems
become increasingly severe and oil use becomes more
efficient, the saturation point of commercial vehicle
ownership per thousand people is 400 units.
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
157
of solar heating increases. If solar heating
maintains the same growth rate as envisaged in
the 13th Five-Year Plan, the surface area of solar
thermal collectors will reach 1.2 billion square
metres by 2030, replacing 144 Mtce of energy.
Biomass heating. The use of agricultural and
forestry waste will gradually shift from power
generation to biomass-fired combined heat and
power (CHP) and biomass heating. Biomass
heating will be fuelled mainly by biomass
briquette-fired boilers, thereby helping to displace industrial coal-fired boilers. According to
the China Biomass Energy Technology Development Roadmap 2050, China’s installed
capacity of power generation from agricultural
and forestry biomass will reach about 5 GW in
2020 and around 8 GW in 2030, equivalent to
4.2 Mtce and 8.96 Mtce respectively.
13 The heat
supplied from biomass briquette-fired boilers will
be 600 petajoules (PJ) in 2020 and 1,000 PJ in
2030, enough to replace 20.5 Mtce and 34.2
Mtce of conventional energy in the heating
market. Based on the above, biomass heating will
amount to 24.7 Mtce in 2020 and 43.16 Mtce in
2030.
Geothermal heating. Given the current state
of geothermal energy and technology development, China’s future geothermal heating strategy
will focus on shallow geothermal energy (the
upper few metres of the ground), which can be
developed to heat the cold areas of north China.
If geothermal heating maintains an annual
growth rate of 12% in 2016-20, the surface area
heated by geothermal energy will approach 900
million square metres in 2020, replacing 13.2
Mtce of conventional energy. If it maintains
annual growth of 15% in 2021-30, the surface
area heated will be close to 3.6 billion square
metres in 2030, replacing 53.5 Mtce of conventional energy.
5.1.3 Oil Products
(1) Oil product marketisation will accelerate
Marketisation of oil products will accelerate in the
future, resulting in the following changes in policy: (i) the oil product import and export market
will be deregulated; (ii) oil product pricing will be
deregulated; (iii) mixed ownership will be initiated to encourage and attract private capital in the
upstream, midstream and downstream oil and gas
industry, thereby promoting diversification of
market participants; and iv) the introduction of oil
product futures will be accelerated. The aim is first
to meet demand in the oil refining sector before
deregulating the oil product import and export
markets. This will benefit downstream users and
facilitate the orderly development of crude oil and
oil product markets. Full oil product marketisation
will be possible by 2030.
(2) Demand growth for petrol and diesel will
gradually slow down
Petrol and diesel in China are mainly used by motor
vehicles, so vehicle ownership numbers directly
determine the amount of petrol and diesel consumed. The CNPC Petrochemical Research Institute
has forecast that vehicle ownership will maintain an
annual growth rate of about 12% to 2020. The
number of vehicles owned is expected to rise from
173 million in 2015 to 266 million in 2020 and 300
million in 2030. By 2050, the share of EVs in passenger vehicle ownership will exceed a third.
(3) Diesel demand will flatten
China is still a developing economy. As such, its
economy is still growing rapidly and so too is its
need for energy. Diesel consumption in China has
yet to peak. According to the scenarios of Zhang
Hailing of the Institute of Policy and Management
of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in the High
Regular Consumption scenario,
14 diesel use will
peak in 2020–25 at 174 Mt and decline slowly
13
If the share of CHP in China’s total power output from
burning agricultural and forestry biomass were to be 60%
in 2020 and 80% in 2030, the installed capacity of
biomass-fired CHP systems would reach 3 GW and 6.4
GW in 2020 and 2030 respectively. If these CHP systems
operate 6,000 h annually, they would provide enough
heat for 150 days.
14
In this scenario, the economy and population grow
rapidly. Economic development and income growth are
the priorities. Lifestyle trends are consumption-oriented.
As oil supply security and environmental problems
become increasingly severe and oil use becomes more
efficient, the saturation point of commercial vehicle
ownership per thousand people is 400 units.
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
157