thereafter. Alternative energy carriers like electric
and hydrogen vehicles will develop slowly. In the
Low Energy Revolution scenario
15
—characterised by strong economic and social development, optimised industrial structures, improved
vehicle fuel economy and fast-growing alternative
fuels—diesel consumption will peak at 170 Mt in
2015–20. After 2020, as vehicle ownership slows
down and alternative energy carriers grow, the
decline in diesel consumption will speed up.
(4) Kerosene demand will grow rapidly
One of the effects of higher income per capita is
growth in air travel and air cargo, which means
greater demand for aviation fuel. In 2016–20, the
annual average growth rate in aviation fuel will be
9.2%. Use of kerosene-based aviation fuel is
expected to reach 40 Mt in 2020, after which
growth will slow down, reaching 53 Mt in 2025
and 64 Mt in 2030. Air cargo will grow at a similar
rate as air travel, but will gradually slow down
after 2030. The average flight length in air travel
will increase from 1,669 km today to 1,900 km in
2050. That of air cargo will increase from 3,312 to
4,200 km. Longer aircraft range and better fuel
economy will cause growth in kerosene demand to
decline. It will increase from 64 Mt in 2030 to 72
Mt in 2040, and then flatten after 2040.
(5) Liquefied gas use will be driven by industrial demand
In recent years, industry’s increasing use of liquefied gas is the main reason for the fuel’s rapid
growth. Growth in household liquefied gas
demand will slow down, although not in rural
areas where growth potential remains. Industry’s
share of total liquefied gas demand will continuously increase. Use of liquefied gas in transport
will also grow, due to it being more economical
than petrol. End-user liquefied gas demand is
forecast to reach 44 Mt in 2020 and 50 Mt in
2030. After 2030, household demand for liquefied gas will remain flat before gradually
declining, due to natural gas replacing fossil
energy and slower growth in demand in rural
areas. The production capacity of propane
dehydrogenation plants, where liquefied gas is
made, will be saturated by 2030. As the future
deployment rate of new technologies and plants
isn’t clear, liquefied gas demand in the chemical
sector is expected to remain stable after 2030.
5.1.4 Hydrogen Energy
Hydrogen has been included in China’s energy
plan as a strategic option to optimise energy consumption and safeguard national energy security.
China produces hydrogen energy from a variety of
sources, including fossil fuels, renewables and
industrial gases. Hydrogen production technologies and processes, like water electrolysis and
hydrogen purification by pressure swing adsorption, are mature. Hydrogen safety technologies in
China are almost in line with internationally
advanced levels, and breakthroughs have been
made in developing safe high-pressure hydrogen
cylinders and tanks. China’s hydrogen fuel infrastructure is behind that of developed economies like
the USA, Japan and Germany, but is growing fast.
In addition, China has completed a standards system for hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Based
on international standards, the system will play an
increasingly important role in driving the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
(1) The hydrogen energy industry will grow
rapidly
According to the report on China’s Hydrogen
Energy Industry Infrastructure Development,
China will make major progress in hydrogen
energy infrastructure development by 2020.
Hydrogen energy production capacity will reach
72 billion cubic metres, supplying 100 hydrogen
refuelling stations, 10,000 fuel cell vehicles and
50 hydrogen-powered railway trains by the end
of this decade. The gross output value of the
hydrogen energy industry will amount to RMB
300 billion ($43.5 billion).
By 2030, the hydrogen energy industry will
be an integral part of China’s new energy strategy, and its output value will exceed RMB 1
trillion. There will be 1,000 hydrogen refuelling
15
In this scenario, the population grows continuously. The
economy successfully transitions to low-carbon energy
and oil use improves. As public transport and rail
transport are on the rise, the saturation point of vehicle
ownership per thousand people is 350 units.
158
W. Xiaoming et al.
and hydrogen vehicles will develop slowly. In the
Low Energy Revolution scenario
15
—characterised by strong economic and social development, optimised industrial structures, improved
vehicle fuel economy and fast-growing alternative
fuels—diesel consumption will peak at 170 Mt in
2015–20. After 2020, as vehicle ownership slows
down and alternative energy carriers grow, the
decline in diesel consumption will speed up.
(4) Kerosene demand will grow rapidly
One of the effects of higher income per capita is
growth in air travel and air cargo, which means
greater demand for aviation fuel. In 2016–20, the
annual average growth rate in aviation fuel will be
9.2%. Use of kerosene-based aviation fuel is
expected to reach 40 Mt in 2020, after which
growth will slow down, reaching 53 Mt in 2025
and 64 Mt in 2030. Air cargo will grow at a similar
rate as air travel, but will gradually slow down
after 2030. The average flight length in air travel
will increase from 1,669 km today to 1,900 km in
2050. That of air cargo will increase from 3,312 to
4,200 km. Longer aircraft range and better fuel
economy will cause growth in kerosene demand to
decline. It will increase from 64 Mt in 2030 to 72
Mt in 2040, and then flatten after 2040.
(5) Liquefied gas use will be driven by industrial demand
In recent years, industry’s increasing use of liquefied gas is the main reason for the fuel’s rapid
growth. Growth in household liquefied gas
demand will slow down, although not in rural
areas where growth potential remains. Industry’s
share of total liquefied gas demand will continuously increase. Use of liquefied gas in transport
will also grow, due to it being more economical
than petrol. End-user liquefied gas demand is
forecast to reach 44 Mt in 2020 and 50 Mt in
2030. After 2030, household demand for liquefied gas will remain flat before gradually
declining, due to natural gas replacing fossil
energy and slower growth in demand in rural
areas. The production capacity of propane
dehydrogenation plants, where liquefied gas is
made, will be saturated by 2030. As the future
deployment rate of new technologies and plants
isn’t clear, liquefied gas demand in the chemical
sector is expected to remain stable after 2030.
5.1.4 Hydrogen Energy
Hydrogen has been included in China’s energy
plan as a strategic option to optimise energy consumption and safeguard national energy security.
China produces hydrogen energy from a variety of
sources, including fossil fuels, renewables and
industrial gases. Hydrogen production technologies and processes, like water electrolysis and
hydrogen purification by pressure swing adsorption, are mature. Hydrogen safety technologies in
China are almost in line with internationally
advanced levels, and breakthroughs have been
made in developing safe high-pressure hydrogen
cylinders and tanks. China’s hydrogen fuel infrastructure is behind that of developed economies like
the USA, Japan and Germany, but is growing fast.
In addition, China has completed a standards system for hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Based
on international standards, the system will play an
increasingly important role in driving the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
(1) The hydrogen energy industry will grow
rapidly
According to the report on China’s Hydrogen
Energy Industry Infrastructure Development,
China will make major progress in hydrogen
energy infrastructure development by 2020.
Hydrogen energy production capacity will reach
72 billion cubic metres, supplying 100 hydrogen
refuelling stations, 10,000 fuel cell vehicles and
50 hydrogen-powered railway trains by the end
of this decade. The gross output value of the
hydrogen energy industry will amount to RMB
300 billion ($43.5 billion).
By 2030, the hydrogen energy industry will
be an integral part of China’s new energy strategy, and its output value will exceed RMB 1
trillion. There will be 1,000 hydrogen refuelling
15
In this scenario, the population grows continuously. The
economy successfully transitions to low-carbon energy
and oil use improves. As public transport and rail
transport are on the rise, the saturation point of vehicle
ownership per thousand people is 350 units.
158
W. Xiaoming et al.