plants. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan for
Natural Gas Development, China will encourage
the development of efficient gas projects like
gas-fired distributed generation, constructing
peak-shaving gas-fired power plants and adapting CCHP plants to local conditions.
Distributed wind power. According to China’s
13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power, China will
proactively explore business models suitable for
the development and deployment of distributed
wind. China will also promote the development
of microgrids that combine wind, solar and
energy storage. Small- and medium-sized wind
power systems have unique advantages. Northern
China has excellent wind resources, as do other
parts of the country. These resources are often
more suitable for small- and medium-sized wind
power solutions than for large wind parks. Distributed wind power provides local grid connections, eliminating the need for long-distance
transmission. Local distributed wind systems can
also relieve power supply pressure, especially in
load centres in east China.
5.1.2 Heating and Cooling
(1) Growing demand for heating
According to forecasts in Market and Policy
Research on Renewable Heat, total demand for
heating will reach around 1.67 Btce in 2020 and
about 2.24 Btce in 2030, an increase of 34%.
There are four main types of demand in the
market: household water heating, building heating, building cooling and industrial heat. The
combined share of building heating and cooling
will exceed 70% in 2020 and 2030.
Household water heating. In 2020, the energy
used to heat household water will be around 152
Mtce. In 2030, the energy needed to heat public
buildings will be about 189 Mtce. Energy consumption for residential and public building
water heating will be about 145 Mtce and 7 Mtce
respectively in 2020, and 178 Mtce and 11 Mtce
respectively in 2030. Household water is a major
application for renewable heat, with thermal the
biggest application for solar, geothermal and
biomass water heating technologies.
Building heating. Buildings are the largest and
most important application in heating. Heat
generated for buildings will reach 631 Btce in 2020
and 794 Btce in 2030, which equates to 38% and
36% respectively of the total heat market. Rural
building heating in cold regions will account for
40–45% of total building heating demand in 2030.
Currently, building heating in rural areas relies
mainly on scattered coal, and the coal-fired heaters
used are often inefficient and pollute severely.
Renewable heat is, therefore, a good clean energy
alternative to coal-fired heating.
Building cooling. Demand for building cooling will reach 612 Btce in 2020 and 903 Btce in
2030, which is roughly the same as for building
heating. Electric air conditioning systems are the
main cooling technology for buildings now and
will remain so in the future. In renewable cooling, ground source and water source heat pump
cooling technologies are well proven. Solar air
conditioning is expected to deliver technical
breakthroughs by 2020.
Industrial water heating. Industrial heat
demand is expected to reach 274 Mtce in 2020
and 355 Mtce in 2030. Biomass-fired boilers can
replace coal-fired boilers to heat industrial water,
but other renewable heat technologies need to
operate with conventional heating technologies
to meet industrial water heating demand.
Renewable heat technologies can replace fossil
energy in certain parts of the heating process, for
instance in preheating and heat tracing, helping
to increase the use of clean energy in industrial
water heating.
(2) Strong potential for renewable heat
Renewable heat is generated mainly by solar,
biomass and geothermal energy. Renewable heat
production is forecast to reach 1.84 Btce in 2020
and 3.59 Btce in 2030. Given the huge potential
of solar and geothermal energy, renewable heat
could grow even faster than forecast, which
would increase the share of clean and low-carbon
energy in the heating market.
Solar heating. According to China’s 13th
Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy, the surface area
of solar thermal collectors will reach 800 million
square metres in 2020. Converted into tce/m
2 ,
solar thermal applications could replace 96 Mtce
of energy. As medium- and high-temperature
156
W. Xiaoming et al.
Natural Gas Development, China will encourage
the development of efficient gas projects like
gas-fired distributed generation, constructing
peak-shaving gas-fired power plants and adapting CCHP plants to local conditions.
Distributed wind power. According to China’s
13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power, China will
proactively explore business models suitable for
the development and deployment of distributed
wind. China will also promote the development
of microgrids that combine wind, solar and
energy storage. Small- and medium-sized wind
power systems have unique advantages. Northern
China has excellent wind resources, as do other
parts of the country. These resources are often
more suitable for small- and medium-sized wind
power solutions than for large wind parks. Distributed wind power provides local grid connections, eliminating the need for long-distance
transmission. Local distributed wind systems can
also relieve power supply pressure, especially in
load centres in east China.
5.1.2 Heating and Cooling
(1) Growing demand for heating
According to forecasts in Market and Policy
Research on Renewable Heat, total demand for
heating will reach around 1.67 Btce in 2020 and
about 2.24 Btce in 2030, an increase of 34%.
There are four main types of demand in the
market: household water heating, building heating, building cooling and industrial heat. The
combined share of building heating and cooling
will exceed 70% in 2020 and 2030.
Household water heating. In 2020, the energy
used to heat household water will be around 152
Mtce. In 2030, the energy needed to heat public
buildings will be about 189 Mtce. Energy consumption for residential and public building
water heating will be about 145 Mtce and 7 Mtce
respectively in 2020, and 178 Mtce and 11 Mtce
respectively in 2030. Household water is a major
application for renewable heat, with thermal the
biggest application for solar, geothermal and
biomass water heating technologies.
Building heating. Buildings are the largest and
most important application in heating. Heat
generated for buildings will reach 631 Btce in 2020
and 794 Btce in 2030, which equates to 38% and
36% respectively of the total heat market. Rural
building heating in cold regions will account for
40–45% of total building heating demand in 2030.
Currently, building heating in rural areas relies
mainly on scattered coal, and the coal-fired heaters
used are often inefficient and pollute severely.
Renewable heat is, therefore, a good clean energy
alternative to coal-fired heating.
Building cooling. Demand for building cooling will reach 612 Btce in 2020 and 903 Btce in
2030, which is roughly the same as for building
heating. Electric air conditioning systems are the
main cooling technology for buildings now and
will remain so in the future. In renewable cooling, ground source and water source heat pump
cooling technologies are well proven. Solar air
conditioning is expected to deliver technical
breakthroughs by 2020.
Industrial water heating. Industrial heat
demand is expected to reach 274 Mtce in 2020
and 355 Mtce in 2030. Biomass-fired boilers can
replace coal-fired boilers to heat industrial water,
but other renewable heat technologies need to
operate with conventional heating technologies
to meet industrial water heating demand.
Renewable heat technologies can replace fossil
energy in certain parts of the heating process, for
instance in preheating and heat tracing, helping
to increase the use of clean energy in industrial
water heating.
(2) Strong potential for renewable heat
Renewable heat is generated mainly by solar,
biomass and geothermal energy. Renewable heat
production is forecast to reach 1.84 Btce in 2020
and 3.59 Btce in 2030. Given the huge potential
of solar and geothermal energy, renewable heat
could grow even faster than forecast, which
would increase the share of clean and low-carbon
energy in the heating market.
Solar heating. According to China’s 13th
Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy, the surface area
of solar thermal collectors will reach 800 million
square metres in 2020. Converted into tce/m
2 ,
solar thermal applications could replace 96 Mtce
of energy. As medium- and high-temperature
156
W. Xiaoming et al.