development, energy source endowment, and the
requirements of the energy revolution, China’s
power and coal power sectors still hold great
growth potential. Installed power capacity is
predicted to reach 2,000 GW and 3,170 GW in
2020 and 2030 respectively, and power output
will be 8.5 trillion kWh and 12 trillion kWh
respectively. Installed coal power capacity will
reach 1,100 GW in 2020, up 33% from 2014, and
1,450 GW in 2030, up 76% from 2014. Coal
power’s share of installed capacity is expected to
decline from 60.7% in 2014 to 55% in 2020 and
46% in 2030, and coal power output to decrease
to 66% and 56% in 2020 and 2030 respectively.
The efficiency of coal-fuelled power generation will improve. The amount of coal consumed
per unit of electricity will fall sharply, thanks to
energy-efficiency technologies, upgrading existing plants to ultra-low emission status, and
shutting down outdated units that do not conform
with mandatory standards. According to the
Action Plan on Upgrading and Reconstructing
Coal-Fired Power Plants for Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction (2014–20), in
2020 the amount of coal consumed per unit of
electricity should be: (a) lower than 300 grams
coal equivalent per kilowatt-hour (gce/kWh) in
newly built coal-fired power generating units;
(b) lower than 310 gce/kWh in upgraded
coal-fired power generating units; and (c) lower
than 300 gce/kWh in upgraded coal-fired generating units of 600 MW or more.
Pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from
coal-fired power plants will gradually decrease.
The key targets for coal-fired power generation
include clean production, reducing emissions of
soot, CO 2 and NO x , and controlling wastewater
discharge. By 2030, emissions of soot, CO 2 and
NO x per kWh will decrease to 0.04 g, 0.15 g and
0.2 g or lower respectively. China has set the
goal of reaching a peak in CO 2 emissions by
around 2030, which makes carbon emissions
reduction the biggest challenge facing coal-fired
power generation. Deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technology
at scale will become an important option for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Coal-fired power generation technologies and
equipment will significantly improve. China will
increase support for the development of emission
reduction technologies for coal-fired power
plants. It will back the development of advanced
dedusting, desulphurisation and denitration processes and innovate new ways to save energy,
water and land. Advanced coal power technologies like ultra-supercritical will be deployed to
achieve the highest efficiency and lowest emissions. The combination of clean coal gasification
and combined cycle power generation in integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
technology turns coal into pressurised gas that
can be used to generate power with lower emissions, thus opening another way to use clean coal
efficiently.
(3) Distributed energy resources encourage
local consumption
Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.
Distributed solar PV power systems could become
the main component in distributed renewable
energy. According to China’s 13th Five-Year Plan
for Energy Development (2016–20), installed
solar power capacity is expected to be more than
110 GW in 2020. This will include 60 GW of
distributed solar power, which is more than the 45
GW installed capacity of centralised solar power
plants. The installed capacity of distributed solar
power is expected to make up 56% of total
installed solar power capacity in 2020. In accordance with China’s 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar
Power Development, 100 distributed PV demonstration plants will be built by 2020.
Gas-fired distributed generation. Gas-fired
distributed generation is an important part of
China’s energy strategy. According to China’s
13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development
(2016–20), China will vigorously promote
gas-fired distributed generation, focusing on the
development of combined cooling, heat and
power (CCHP) plants and include gas-fired distributed generation in national energy development strategies. China’s installed capacity of
gas-fired distributed generation will be more than
110 GW in 2020, including 15 GW of CCHP
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
155
requirements of the energy revolution, China’s
power and coal power sectors still hold great
growth potential. Installed power capacity is
predicted to reach 2,000 GW and 3,170 GW in
2020 and 2030 respectively, and power output
will be 8.5 trillion kWh and 12 trillion kWh
respectively. Installed coal power capacity will
reach 1,100 GW in 2020, up 33% from 2014, and
1,450 GW in 2030, up 76% from 2014. Coal
power’s share of installed capacity is expected to
decline from 60.7% in 2014 to 55% in 2020 and
46% in 2030, and coal power output to decrease
to 66% and 56% in 2020 and 2030 respectively.
The efficiency of coal-fuelled power generation will improve. The amount of coal consumed
per unit of electricity will fall sharply, thanks to
energy-efficiency technologies, upgrading existing plants to ultra-low emission status, and
shutting down outdated units that do not conform
with mandatory standards. According to the
Action Plan on Upgrading and Reconstructing
Coal-Fired Power Plants for Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction (2014–20), in
2020 the amount of coal consumed per unit of
electricity should be: (a) lower than 300 grams
coal equivalent per kilowatt-hour (gce/kWh) in
newly built coal-fired power generating units;
(b) lower than 310 gce/kWh in upgraded
coal-fired power generating units; and (c) lower
than 300 gce/kWh in upgraded coal-fired generating units of 600 MW or more.
Pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from
coal-fired power plants will gradually decrease.
The key targets for coal-fired power generation
include clean production, reducing emissions of
soot, CO 2 and NO x , and controlling wastewater
discharge. By 2030, emissions of soot, CO 2 and
NO x per kWh will decrease to 0.04 g, 0.15 g and
0.2 g or lower respectively. China has set the
goal of reaching a peak in CO 2 emissions by
around 2030, which makes carbon emissions
reduction the biggest challenge facing coal-fired
power generation. Deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technology
at scale will become an important option for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Coal-fired power generation technologies and
equipment will significantly improve. China will
increase support for the development of emission
reduction technologies for coal-fired power
plants. It will back the development of advanced
dedusting, desulphurisation and denitration processes and innovate new ways to save energy,
water and land. Advanced coal power technologies like ultra-supercritical will be deployed to
achieve the highest efficiency and lowest emissions. The combination of clean coal gasification
and combined cycle power generation in integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
technology turns coal into pressurised gas that
can be used to generate power with lower emissions, thus opening another way to use clean coal
efficiently.
(3) Distributed energy resources encourage
local consumption
Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.
Distributed solar PV power systems could become
the main component in distributed renewable
energy. According to China’s 13th Five-Year Plan
for Energy Development (2016–20), installed
solar power capacity is expected to be more than
110 GW in 2020. This will include 60 GW of
distributed solar power, which is more than the 45
GW installed capacity of centralised solar power
plants. The installed capacity of distributed solar
power is expected to make up 56% of total
installed solar power capacity in 2020. In accordance with China’s 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar
Power Development, 100 distributed PV demonstration plants will be built by 2020.
Gas-fired distributed generation. Gas-fired
distributed generation is an important part of
China’s energy strategy. According to China’s
13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development
(2016–20), China will vigorously promote
gas-fired distributed generation, focusing on the
development of combined cooling, heat and
power (CCHP) plants and include gas-fired distributed generation in national energy development strategies. China’s installed capacity of
gas-fired distributed generation will be more than
110 GW in 2020, including 15 GW of CCHP
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
155