and gradually decrease as EVs replace the
internal combustion engine. Clean energy will
play an increasingly important role in meeting
energy demand. The share of non-fossil energy
will increase from 11.8% in 2015 to 22.5% in
2030 and to more than 40% in 2050. In addition,
increases in electrification will raise power generation’s share of energy supply from 40.9% in
2015 to 48.5% in 2030 and 54.8% in 2050.
Compared to the Recommended scenario, in
2030 total primary energy consumption will be
30 Mtce lower in the SEGFSC scenario and 90
Mtce lower in the accelerated EV development
(Extreme) scenario. By 2050 the decrease will be
more gradual: 10 Mtce in the SEGFSC scenario
and 100 tce in the accelerated EV development
scenario. The share of non-fossil energy power
generation will increase to 43% in the SEGFSC
scenario and 45% in the accelerated EV development scenario in 2050 (Fig. 58).
(4) Fossil energy supply by energy source
Total energy supply by energy source (coal, oil
and natural gas) in the three scenarios is as
follows:
(1) Coal supply
Coal demand shows a clear decline in all three
scenarios, dropping to 3.5 Bt in 2030 and 2.2 Bt in
2050. Correspondingly, coal supply is expected to
reach 3.8 Bt in 2030 and 2.4 Bt in 2050. If China’s
Fig. 57 China’s total power
consumption in three
scenarios
Table 15 Total primary energy demand in the Recommended scenario
2015
2020
2030
2035
2050
Total primary energy demand (Mtce)
Coal
2,750
2,670
2,430
2,230
1,570
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
460
800
860
900
Non-fossil fuels
510
750
1,210
1,540
2,420
Total
4,280
4,780
5,380
5,550
5,730
Share of non-coal energy (%)
35.7
44.2
54.8
59.9
72.6
Share of non-fossil energy (%)
11.8
15.7
22.5
27.8
42.3
Primary energy for power generation
Mtce
1,750
2,100
2,610
2,830
3,140
Share (%)
40.9
44.1
48.5
51.0
54.8
Note According to China’s current method for calculating primary energy demand, when non-fossil fuel power
generation is included in primary energy, it should be converted to coal consumption equivalent
146
W. Xiaoming et al.
internal combustion engine. Clean energy will
play an increasingly important role in meeting
energy demand. The share of non-fossil energy
will increase from 11.8% in 2015 to 22.5% in
2030 and to more than 40% in 2050. In addition,
increases in electrification will raise power generation’s share of energy supply from 40.9% in
2015 to 48.5% in 2030 and 54.8% in 2050.
Compared to the Recommended scenario, in
2030 total primary energy consumption will be
30 Mtce lower in the SEGFSC scenario and 90
Mtce lower in the accelerated EV development
(Extreme) scenario. By 2050 the decrease will be
more gradual: 10 Mtce in the SEGFSC scenario
and 100 tce in the accelerated EV development
scenario. The share of non-fossil energy power
generation will increase to 43% in the SEGFSC
scenario and 45% in the accelerated EV development scenario in 2050 (Fig. 58).
(4) Fossil energy supply by energy source
Total energy supply by energy source (coal, oil
and natural gas) in the three scenarios is as
follows:
(1) Coal supply
Coal demand shows a clear decline in all three
scenarios, dropping to 3.5 Bt in 2030 and 2.2 Bt in
2050. Correspondingly, coal supply is expected to
reach 3.8 Bt in 2030 and 2.4 Bt in 2050. If China’s
Fig. 57 China’s total power
consumption in three
scenarios
Table 15 Total primary energy demand in the Recommended scenario
2015
2020
2030
2035
2050
Total primary energy demand (Mtce)
Coal
2,750
2,670
2,430
2,230
1,570
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
460
800
860
900
Non-fossil fuels
510
750
1,210
1,540
2,420
Total
4,280
4,780
5,380
5,550
5,730
Share of non-coal energy (%)
35.7
44.2
54.8
59.9
72.6
Share of non-fossil energy (%)
11.8
15.7
22.5
27.8
42.3
Primary energy for power generation
Mtce
1,750
2,100
2,610
2,830
3,140
Share (%)
40.9
44.1
48.5
51.0
54.8
Note According to China’s current method for calculating primary energy demand, when non-fossil fuel power
generation is included in primary energy, it should be converted to coal consumption equivalent
146
W. Xiaoming et al.