mainly be used for peak shaving and for building
distributed energy stations; and (iii) coal power
should be considered the last resort in the entire
power supply system and gradually shift to
flexible sources of supply.
As shown in Table 12, the share of clean
power (i.e. not coal- and oil-fired generation) will
gradually increase from 30% in 2015 to 38% in
2020, 52% in 2030 and to around 80% in 2050.
Of this, the share of wind and solar power is
expected to increase from 4.9% in 2015 to about
15% in 2030 and more than 25% in 2050. The
share of nuclear power will increase steadily
from 3% in 2015 to more than 10% in 2030 and
more than 20% in 2050. The share of gas-fired
power generation will increase from 3% in 2015
to 9% in 2030 and around 10% in 2050. Despite
continuous growth in hydropower capacity, its
share will gradually decrease from 17% in 2015
to 14% in 2030 and 13.5% in 2050.
In terms of installed capacity, coal-fired power
generation in 2020 will be 1,100 GW, after
which there will be a flat-growth period until
2030. Installed capacity will gradually decrease
to 800 GW in 2050, as decommissioning of
coal-fired generating units progresses. Average
operating hours of coal-fired generating units will
also gradually decrease from about 4,400 h per
year in 2015 to 4,000 h in 2020-30, and 3,000 h
in 2050. The installed capacity of hydropower
(excluding pumped storage) will reach 300 GW
in 2020, after which growth will slow down,
reaching 350 GW in 2030 and 450 GW in 2050.
Gas-fired power generation and nuclear, wind
and solar power will grow rapidly. Their installed
capacity will reach 220, 136, 420 and 400 GW
respectively in 2030, which equates to new
installed capacity of 10, 7, 19 and 24 GW
annually. By 2050, their installed capacity will
have grown to 340, 350, 1,000 and 1,000 GW
Table 12 Comparison of China’s future end-use energy demand in four different scenarios (Mtce)
2015
2020
2030
2035
2050
Recommended scenario
Coal
1,360
1,150
960
840
630
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
460
800
860
900
Electricity
700
860
1,120
1,230
1,440
Total
3,070
3,370
3,820
3,850
3,800
High SEGFSC
Coal
1,360
1,080
870
800
590
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
490
840
860
910
Electricity
700
870
1,130
1,240
1,440
Total
3,070
3,340
3,770
3,830
3,780
Low SEGFSC
Coal
1,360
1,220
1,050
930
710
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
440
770
850
860
Electricity
700
860
1,110
1,230
1,430
Total
3,070
3,410
3,860
3,920
3.850
EV development extreme scenario
Coal
1,360
1,150
960
840
630
Oil
770
900
790
720
650
Natural gas
250
460
800
860
900
Electricity
700
860
1,140
1,270
1,480
Total
3,070
3,370
3,700
3,700
3,650
Note Heat is included in coal, natural gas and electricity consumption
144
W. Xiaoming et al.
distributed energy stations; and (iii) coal power
should be considered the last resort in the entire
power supply system and gradually shift to
flexible sources of supply.
As shown in Table 12, the share of clean
power (i.e. not coal- and oil-fired generation) will
gradually increase from 30% in 2015 to 38% in
2020, 52% in 2030 and to around 80% in 2050.
Of this, the share of wind and solar power is
expected to increase from 4.9% in 2015 to about
15% in 2030 and more than 25% in 2050. The
share of nuclear power will increase steadily
from 3% in 2015 to more than 10% in 2030 and
more than 20% in 2050. The share of gas-fired
power generation will increase from 3% in 2015
to 9% in 2030 and around 10% in 2050. Despite
continuous growth in hydropower capacity, its
share will gradually decrease from 17% in 2015
to 14% in 2030 and 13.5% in 2050.
In terms of installed capacity, coal-fired power
generation in 2020 will be 1,100 GW, after
which there will be a flat-growth period until
2030. Installed capacity will gradually decrease
to 800 GW in 2050, as decommissioning of
coal-fired generating units progresses. Average
operating hours of coal-fired generating units will
also gradually decrease from about 4,400 h per
year in 2015 to 4,000 h in 2020-30, and 3,000 h
in 2050. The installed capacity of hydropower
(excluding pumped storage) will reach 300 GW
in 2020, after which growth will slow down,
reaching 350 GW in 2030 and 450 GW in 2050.
Gas-fired power generation and nuclear, wind
and solar power will grow rapidly. Their installed
capacity will reach 220, 136, 420 and 400 GW
respectively in 2030, which equates to new
installed capacity of 10, 7, 19 and 24 GW
annually. By 2050, their installed capacity will
have grown to 340, 350, 1,000 and 1,000 GW
Table 12 Comparison of China’s future end-use energy demand in four different scenarios (Mtce)
2015
2020
2030
2035
2050
Recommended scenario
Coal
1,360
1,150
960
840
630
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
460
800
860
900
Electricity
700
860
1,120
1,230
1,440
Total
3,070
3,370
3,820
3,850
3,800
High SEGFSC
Coal
1,360
1,080
870
800
590
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
490
840
860
910
Electricity
700
870
1,130
1,240
1,440
Total
3,070
3,340
3,770
3,830
3,780
Low SEGFSC
Coal
1,360
1,220
1,050
930
710
Oil
770
900
940
910
840
Natural gas
250
440
770
850
860
Electricity
700
860
1,110
1,230
1,430
Total
3,070
3,410
3,860
3,920
3.850
EV development extreme scenario
Coal
1,360
1,150
960
840
630
Oil
770
900
790
720
650
Natural gas
250
460
800
860
900
Electricity
700
860
1,140
1,270
1,480
Total
3,070
3,370
3,700
3,700
3,650
Note Heat is included in coal, natural gas and electricity consumption
144
W. Xiaoming et al.