OIL SUPPLY 235
The demand side of peak oil is concerned with the consumption over time, and the growth of this demand. For example, world
crude oil demand has grown at almost 2% per year from 1994 and
is projected to increase more than 30% over current levels by 2030
(i.e., 118 million barrels per day from 86 million barrels), due in
large part to increases in demand from the transportation sector
(EIA, 2007).
Heavy crude oil and unconventional sources of liquid fuels
(such as tar sands and oil shale) are not counted as part of oil
reserves. However, oil companies can book them as proven
reserves after opening a mine for tar sand and, thence, bitumen
recovery, or thermal facility for recovery of modified bitumen.
These unconventional sources are not as efficient to produce,
however, requiring extra energy to refine, resulting in higher
production costs more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel
equivalent. While the energy used, resources needed, and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources has traditionally been prohibitively high, the three major unconventional
oil sources being considered for large scale production are the
heavy oil and bitumen in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela), the tar
sand at Athabasca in Alberta), and the oil shale of the Green River
formation of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming in the United States.
Taken together, these resource occurrences are approximately
equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East (Speight, 2008).
However, despite the large quantities of oil available in nonconventional sources, limitations on production prevent them from
becoming an immediate replacement for conventional crude oil and
peak oil will still be a reality. Even under highly optimistic assumptions, production of synthetic crude oil from the Alberta tar sand
could reach 5 million barrels per day by 2030 provided there was an
immediate program for development (Söderbergh et al., 2007) making it possible that within the foreseeable future the world's extra
oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources.
8.5.2 Effects and Consequences of Peak Oil
The widespread use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of economic growth and has allowed the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced (Yergin,
1993). Thus, the impact of peak oil will depend heavily on the rate
The demand side of peak oil is concerned with the consumption over time, and the growth of this demand. For example, world
crude oil demand has grown at almost 2% per year from 1994 and
is projected to increase more than 30% over current levels by 2030
(i.e., 118 million barrels per day from 86 million barrels), due in
large part to increases in demand from the transportation sector
(EIA, 2007).
Heavy crude oil and unconventional sources of liquid fuels
(such as tar sands and oil shale) are not counted as part of oil
reserves. However, oil companies can book them as proven
reserves after opening a mine for tar sand and, thence, bitumen
recovery, or thermal facility for recovery of modified bitumen.
These unconventional sources are not as efficient to produce,
however, requiring extra energy to refine, resulting in higher
production costs more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel
equivalent. While the energy used, resources needed, and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources has traditionally been prohibitively high, the three major unconventional
oil sources being considered for large scale production are the
heavy oil and bitumen in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela), the tar
sand at Athabasca in Alberta), and the oil shale of the Green River
formation of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming in the United States.
Taken together, these resource occurrences are approximately
equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East (Speight, 2008).
However, despite the large quantities of oil available in nonconventional sources, limitations on production prevent them from
becoming an immediate replacement for conventional crude oil and
peak oil will still be a reality. Even under highly optimistic assumptions, production of synthetic crude oil from the Alberta tar sand
could reach 5 million barrels per day by 2030 provided there was an
immediate program for development (Söderbergh et al., 2007) making it possible that within the foreseeable future the world's extra
oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources.
8.5.2 Effects and Consequences of Peak Oil
The widespread use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of economic growth and has allowed the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced (Yergin,
1993). Thus, the impact of peak oil will depend heavily on the rate