236 PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
of decline and the timely development and adoption of effective
alternative sources of energy (Chapter 9). If alternatives are not
forthcoming in a timely manner, the multitude of products from
crude oil would become scarce and expensive, which, at the very
least, could lower living standards in developed and developing countries alike, and in the worst case lead to worldwide economic collapse. With increased tension between countries over
dwindling oil supplies, political situations may change dramatically and inequalities between countries and regions may become
exacerbated.
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the
world with an unprecedented risk management problem (Hirsch
et al, 2005). As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price
volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand
sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more
than a decade in advance of peaking.
World oil peaking is going to happen, but whether it will occur
slowly or abruptly is not certain. There will be an adverse effect on
global economies, particularly in those nations most dependent on
oil. However, the adoption of alternate technologies to supplant the
deficit in oil production will require a substantial time period on the
order of ten-to-twenty years. If actions are taken before the onset of
peak oil, economic upheaval is not inevitable and the problems can
be solved with existing technologies but government intervention
is necessary.
The issue of peak oil can be overcome by the following factors:
1. Delay until world oil production peaks before taking
crash program action — this would leave the world
with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two
decades
2. Initiate an urgent program for alternate fuel source
development 10 years before world oil peaking — this
would leave a liquid fuels shortfall for several years
(perhaps a decade) after peak oil
3. Initiate an urgent program for alternate fuel source
development 20 years before peak oil — this would
offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels
shortfall for the forecast period.
of decline and the timely development and adoption of effective
alternative sources of energy (Chapter 9). If alternatives are not
forthcoming in a timely manner, the multitude of products from
crude oil would become scarce and expensive, which, at the very
least, could lower living standards in developed and developing countries alike, and in the worst case lead to worldwide economic collapse. With increased tension between countries over
dwindling oil supplies, political situations may change dramatically and inequalities between countries and regions may become
exacerbated.
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the
world with an unprecedented risk management problem (Hirsch
et al, 2005). As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price
volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand
sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more
than a decade in advance of peaking.
World oil peaking is going to happen, but whether it will occur
slowly or abruptly is not certain. There will be an adverse effect on
global economies, particularly in those nations most dependent on
oil. However, the adoption of alternate technologies to supplant the
deficit in oil production will require a substantial time period on the
order of ten-to-twenty years. If actions are taken before the onset of
peak oil, economic upheaval is not inevitable and the problems can
be solved with existing technologies but government intervention
is necessary.
The issue of peak oil can be overcome by the following factors:
1. Delay until world oil production peaks before taking
crash program action — this would leave the world
with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two
decades
2. Initiate an urgent program for alternate fuel source
development 10 years before world oil peaking — this
would leave a liquid fuels shortfall for several years
(perhaps a decade) after peak oil
3. Initiate an urgent program for alternate fuel source
development 20 years before peak oil — this would
offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels
shortfall for the forecast period.