OIL SUPPLY 233
Historically, this is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil. Each time (whether it was the shortage of gasoline
at the end of World War I or the gasoline shortage of the 1970s)
advances in technology have managed to offset the decline of available oil. In fact, there is sufficient crude oil remaining in the ground
that will become available as more technological advances are
explored.
Conventional crude oil reserves include all crude oil that is technically possible to produce from reservoirs through a well bore,
using primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary methods; this does not include liquid fuels produced from tar sand, coal,
oil shale, and gas-to-liquid process (Chapter 9) (Speight, 2008). Oil
reserves (Chapter 2) are classified as proven, probable, and possible. Proven reserves are generally intended to have at least 90%
or 95% certainty of containing the amount specified. Probable
reserves have an intended probability of 50%, and the possible
reserves have an intended probability of 5% or 10%. Current technology is capable of extracting about 40% of the oil from most wells
and it is likely that future technology will make further extraction
possible.
The global resource base of conventional and unconventional
oils, including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and
yet-to-be-produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to
grow (Jackson, 2006) — the operative word being likely — but
subject to advances in technology making unavailable residual
oil available, likely has the distinct chance of becoming real; and
such oil does not include the so-called yet-to-be-discovered oil
(Chapter 9).
However, there is some question about the validity of the reserves
estimates given by oil-producing (OPEC) countries (Campbell and
Laherrère, 1998; Cohen, 2007). Many of the so-called reserves may
actually be inflated and are, in fact, resources; they are not delineated and are inaccessible, so are unavailable for production.
Nevertheless, it is thought that global crude oil production will
follow an undulating plateau for one or more decades before declining slowly and the slope of decline will be more gradual and much
less steep as the rapid rate of increase of oil discoveries (Figure 8.1)
(Jackson, 2006; Cohen, 2007). It is anticipated that increasing oil
prices to support the current production plateau for another two
decades, but beyond that, at a time when the world's oil fields will
be severely depleted (Campbell 2004a, 2004b, 2005), it is difficult to
predict the actual events.
Historically, this is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil. Each time (whether it was the shortage of gasoline
at the end of World War I or the gasoline shortage of the 1970s)
advances in technology have managed to offset the decline of available oil. In fact, there is sufficient crude oil remaining in the ground
that will become available as more technological advances are
explored.
Conventional crude oil reserves include all crude oil that is technically possible to produce from reservoirs through a well bore,
using primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary methods; this does not include liquid fuels produced from tar sand, coal,
oil shale, and gas-to-liquid process (Chapter 9) (Speight, 2008). Oil
reserves (Chapter 2) are classified as proven, probable, and possible. Proven reserves are generally intended to have at least 90%
or 95% certainty of containing the amount specified. Probable
reserves have an intended probability of 50%, and the possible
reserves have an intended probability of 5% or 10%. Current technology is capable of extracting about 40% of the oil from most wells
and it is likely that future technology will make further extraction
possible.
The global resource base of conventional and unconventional
oils, including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and
yet-to-be-produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to
grow (Jackson, 2006) — the operative word being likely — but
subject to advances in technology making unavailable residual
oil available, likely has the distinct chance of becoming real; and
such oil does not include the so-called yet-to-be-discovered oil
(Chapter 9).
However, there is some question about the validity of the reserves
estimates given by oil-producing (OPEC) countries (Campbell and
Laherrère, 1998; Cohen, 2007). Many of the so-called reserves may
actually be inflated and are, in fact, resources; they are not delineated and are inaccessible, so are unavailable for production.
Nevertheless, it is thought that global crude oil production will
follow an undulating plateau for one or more decades before declining slowly and the slope of decline will be more gradual and much
less steep as the rapid rate of increase of oil discoveries (Figure 8.1)
(Jackson, 2006; Cohen, 2007). It is anticipated that increasing oil
prices to support the current production plateau for another two
decades, but beyond that, at a time when the world's oil fields will
be severely depleted (Campbell 2004a, 2004b, 2005), it is difficult to
predict the actual events.