232
PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
production, then a decline in production. Furthermore, the Hubert
model has been shown to be descriptive of the peak and decline of
production from oil fields in many countries (Brandt, 2007).
Hubbert predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur (if the
trends prior to 1974 continued) in 1995 (http://www.hubbertpeak.
com/hubbert/natgeog.htm). However, in the late 1970s and early
1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped due to the shift
to energy-efficient cars and the shift to electricity and natural gas
for heating, then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid
1980s. Thus, oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed
to more than double the rate initially projected. This underscores
the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak
oil may be in retrospect. However, predictions have been refined
through the years as up-to-date information becomes more readily
available, such as new reserve growth data. Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred,
that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will
sustain supply for several decades. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only on when it
will occur.
However, the argument for peak oil is not presented in the context of a systematic evaluation of available data. The concept of the
Hubbert-derived bell was a start in terms of a necessary examination of a finite resource and has been accepted as fact by many who
fail to recognize that the potential for a skewed bell curve through
the potential of technological advances and the impact of heavy
oil and tar sand bitumen; the original concept was developed in
the mid-to-late 1950s. Indeed, the post-peak reservoir decline curve
assumptions are rebutted by observation that the geometry of typical oilfield production profiles is often distinctly asymmetrical and
does not generally show a precipitous mirror-image decline in production after an apparent peak.
In fact, the peak oil theory, because it has been approached as
an emotional issue, is causing confusion leading to inappropriate
actions that turn attention away from the real issues. Oil is critical
to the global economy and emotional outbursts should not replace
careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering
liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies. However,
the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major
investment in energy alternatives will occur before a crisis, without
requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming
nations (Jackson, 2006).
PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
production, then a decline in production. Furthermore, the Hubert
model has been shown to be descriptive of the peak and decline of
production from oil fields in many countries (Brandt, 2007).
Hubbert predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur (if the
trends prior to 1974 continued) in 1995 (http://www.hubbertpeak.
com/hubbert/natgeog.htm). However, in the late 1970s and early
1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped due to the shift
to energy-efficient cars and the shift to electricity and natural gas
for heating, then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid
1980s. Thus, oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed
to more than double the rate initially projected. This underscores
the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak
oil may be in retrospect. However, predictions have been refined
through the years as up-to-date information becomes more readily
available, such as new reserve growth data. Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred,
that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will
sustain supply for several decades. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only on when it
will occur.
However, the argument for peak oil is not presented in the context of a systematic evaluation of available data. The concept of the
Hubbert-derived bell was a start in terms of a necessary examination of a finite resource and has been accepted as fact by many who
fail to recognize that the potential for a skewed bell curve through
the potential of technological advances and the impact of heavy
oil and tar sand bitumen; the original concept was developed in
the mid-to-late 1950s. Indeed, the post-peak reservoir decline curve
assumptions are rebutted by observation that the geometry of typical oilfield production profiles is often distinctly asymmetrical and
does not generally show a precipitous mirror-image decline in production after an apparent peak.
In fact, the peak oil theory, because it has been approached as
an emotional issue, is causing confusion leading to inappropriate
actions that turn attention away from the real issues. Oil is critical
to the global economy and emotional outbursts should not replace
careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering
liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies. However,
the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major
investment in energy alternatives will occur before a crisis, without
requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming
nations (Jackson, 2006).