OIL SUPPLY 231
Mexico, Canada, Norway, and Brazil http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/
country/index.cfm. Non-OPEC nations produced approximately
60% of total production for the year.
However, many non-OPEC producers are faced with wells that
are quickly depleting. Some major producers, such as the United
States, Mexico, and Norway, have experienced a decline in production in recent years but, on the other hand, non-OPEC production,
although declining, has been bolstered by the significant increases
in production from Brazil, Canada, Russia, and other former Soviet
states (BP, 2008). In 2009, non-OPEC production is expected to
increase by 1.5 million barrels per day.
8.5 Peak Oil
After all of the above issues have been taken into account, there
remains an issue that is in actual fact a combination of those above.
And that is peak oil, the point in time when the maximum rate of
global petroleum recovery realized, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline (Deffeyes, 2002,2005).
However, peak oil is not about running out of oil but the peaking
and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil. Many observers have interpreted peak oil to mean that the world is running out
of oil at the time of the peak and the downside (the decreased production side of the curve) is often thought to be a precipice down
which the oil-consuming nations (the oil-importing nations) speed
to oblivion.
8.5.1 Peak Oil Theory
M. King Hubbert created the Hubbert peak theory in 1956 to accurately predict that oil production in the United States would reach
a maximum between 1965 and 1970 (Hubbert, 1956). The concept
is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells,
and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.
The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears
to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted.
According to the Hubbert postulate, the production rate of a limited resource, such as crude oil, will follows a bell-shaped curve representing increase in production following by a diminished rate of
Mexico, Canada, Norway, and Brazil http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/
country/index.cfm. Non-OPEC nations produced approximately
60% of total production for the year.
However, many non-OPEC producers are faced with wells that
are quickly depleting. Some major producers, such as the United
States, Mexico, and Norway, have experienced a decline in production in recent years but, on the other hand, non-OPEC production,
although declining, has been bolstered by the significant increases
in production from Brazil, Canada, Russia, and other former Soviet
states (BP, 2008). In 2009, non-OPEC production is expected to
increase by 1.5 million barrels per day.
8.5 Peak Oil
After all of the above issues have been taken into account, there
remains an issue that is in actual fact a combination of those above.
And that is peak oil, the point in time when the maximum rate of
global petroleum recovery realized, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline (Deffeyes, 2002,2005).
However, peak oil is not about running out of oil but the peaking
and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil. Many observers have interpreted peak oil to mean that the world is running out
of oil at the time of the peak and the downside (the decreased production side of the curve) is often thought to be a precipice down
which the oil-consuming nations (the oil-importing nations) speed
to oblivion.
8.5.1 Peak Oil Theory
M. King Hubbert created the Hubbert peak theory in 1956 to accurately predict that oil production in the United States would reach
a maximum between 1965 and 1970 (Hubbert, 1956). The concept
is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells,
and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.
The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears
to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted.
According to the Hubbert postulate, the production rate of a limited resource, such as crude oil, will follows a bell-shaped curve representing increase in production following by a diminished rate of