2 JAPAN’S ENERGY POLICY AND COMMUNITY POWER …
29
51
38 40
4.5
57
49
43
55
60
10 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2
12
28 25
28
23
30
27
20
19
46 51
34
41
35 32
25 24 29
24 25
15
23 24 23 23
27 24
18 15
21 24
27
15
18 25 20 22 17
19 21
9
19
6
5 10
5
6 12
21
17
16
41 41
59
52
54 61
68 66
65
71 70
77
70 69 67
73
71 72
77 77
71
72 67
75
73
68 74 76
77 73 67
64
77
31 29 26
22
14
10 9 8 5 4 3 2 3 8
4 5 7 4 4 3 6 3 6 8
3 1 2 4 5 6 3 5 8 6 5 3 1 4 6 10
26
2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1978
1980
1981
1984
1987
1990
1999
2005
2009
2011.4Y
2011.4A
2011.5Y
2011.5A
2011.5N
2011.6Y
2011.6N
2011.6H
2011.7Y
2011.7N
2011.8Y
2011.8H
2011.8Y
2011.9N
2011.10H
2011.10Y
2011.12H
2011.12Y
2012.2J
2012.2Y
2012.3H
2012.8A
2013.1Y
2013.2E
2013.2Y
2013.3H
2013.11Y
2013.11H
2014.1Y
2014.2Y
2014.10H
2014.10R
2015.1Y
Increase
Maintain the present condiƟons
Decrease
I don`t know/No answer/Other
3.11.2011
Fig. 2.1 Public opinion regarding increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the
status quo of nuclear power (Legend Results between 1978 and 2009 are based
on surveys conducted by Naikakufu daijin kanb¯ o seifu k¯ oh¯ o shitsu, yoron ch¯ osa
shitsu under the title of “Genshiryoku ni kansuru yoron ch¯ osa,” and “Enerugi
ni kansuru yoron ch¯ osa.” Surveys conducted by Asahi Shinbun are denoted by
the letter “A” after the date and month, those conducted by National Institute of Environmental Studies are denoted with an “E,” “H” denotes NHK,
“N” denotes Nihon Keizai Shinbun, “J” denotes Japanese General Social Surveys
[JGSS], “R” denotes the Japan Atomic Energy Relations Organization [JAERO],
and “Y” denotes Yomiuri Shinbun. Note Author created figure, with assistance
from Mathias Shabanaj Janklila, based on data from Iwai and Shishido [2015],
JAERO [2014], Yomiuri Shinbun [2015])
of coal-fired and 3% of oil-fired (Fig. 2.2). This outlook assumes that
economic growth will be continued at an average of 1.7% increase per
year from Fiscal Year 2013 to 2030. The required power generation will
be 1278 billion kWh in 2030, and it will be reduced to 1065 billion kWh
by 17% of power conservation. See Fig. 2.2. What is wrong with METI’s
outlook?
29
51
38 40
4.5
57
49
43
55
60
10 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2
12
28 25
28
23
30
27
20
19
46 51
34
41
35 32
25 24 29
24 25
15
23 24 23 23
27 24
18 15
21 24
27
15
18 25 20 22 17
19 21
9
19
6
5 10
5
6 12
21
17
16
41 41
59
52
54 61
68 66
65
71 70
77
70 69 67
73
71 72
77 77
71
72 67
75
73
68 74 76
77 73 67
64
77
31 29 26
22
14
10 9 8 5 4 3 2 3 8
4 5 7 4 4 3 6 3 6 8
3 1 2 4 5 6 3 5 8 6 5 3 1 4 6 10
26
2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1978
1980
1981
1984
1987
1990
1999
2005
2009
2011.4Y
2011.4A
2011.5Y
2011.5A
2011.5N
2011.6Y
2011.6N
2011.6H
2011.7Y
2011.7N
2011.8Y
2011.8H
2011.8Y
2011.9N
2011.10H
2011.10Y
2011.12H
2011.12Y
2012.2J
2012.2Y
2012.3H
2012.8A
2013.1Y
2013.2E
2013.2Y
2013.3H
2013.11Y
2013.11H
2014.1Y
2014.2Y
2014.10H
2014.10R
2015.1Y
Increase
Maintain the present condiƟons
Decrease
I don`t know/No answer/Other
3.11.2011
Fig. 2.1 Public opinion regarding increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the
status quo of nuclear power (Legend Results between 1978 and 2009 are based
on surveys conducted by Naikakufu daijin kanb¯ o seifu k¯ oh¯ o shitsu, yoron ch¯ osa
shitsu under the title of “Genshiryoku ni kansuru yoron ch¯ osa,” and “Enerugi
ni kansuru yoron ch¯ osa.” Surveys conducted by Asahi Shinbun are denoted by
the letter “A” after the date and month, those conducted by National Institute of Environmental Studies are denoted with an “E,” “H” denotes NHK,
“N” denotes Nihon Keizai Shinbun, “J” denotes Japanese General Social Surveys
[JGSS], “R” denotes the Japan Atomic Energy Relations Organization [JAERO],
and “Y” denotes Yomiuri Shinbun. Note Author created figure, with assistance
from Mathias Shabanaj Janklila, based on data from Iwai and Shishido [2015],
JAERO [2014], Yomiuri Shinbun [2015])
of coal-fired and 3% of oil-fired (Fig. 2.2). This outlook assumes that
economic growth will be continued at an average of 1.7% increase per
year from Fiscal Year 2013 to 2030. The required power generation will
be 1278 billion kWh in 2030, and it will be reduced to 1065 billion kWh
by 17% of power conservation. See Fig. 2.2. What is wrong with METI’s
outlook?