394 E. MOE
the next phase of renewable expansion is hugely contingent on. Thus,
while the expansion of renewables is a clear goal in all our countries, it is
not equally obvious that the long-term renewable energy targets that most
countries declare come with a clear plan as to how these goals should be
reached. Or a strong awareness of which social, industrial, technological
and political problems will arise from the expansion and how they should
be solved in order to prevent resistance from vested interests or public
opinion.
To what extent do we have a renewable energy transition? Is renewable energy merely a supplement to the existing energy system, or has it
started to replace existing sources of energy? In 2014, it was really only
in Denmark that wind power was more than just a supplement. In 2020,
it is obvious that in Vietnam it is a supplement rather than a source for
structural change in the energy system. That is only to be expected in
a country that is still very much a rapidly growing developing country.
And it is a supplement in Singapore—also only to be expected, since this
is a country with very little available space for renewable installations.
Rather, the surprise in Singapore is that it has installed as much solar as
it has considering that there is no support system for renewable energy.
The South Korean renewable energy transformation is also very much
in an early phase, and it is hard to describe renewables yet as anything
but a supplement. For these three, the function of renewable energy has
primarily been to slightly improve the energy security situation, as well as
contributing a very modest climate bonus.
Can we identify energy transitions in the other countries? Japan is still
struggling with the aftereffects of Fukushima. We see solar PV having a
massively larger imprint than before, but that continued success cannot be
taken for granted and that wind is still struggling. In China, we see renewables increase their share of electricity production by about 1% per year,
but China is still in a very early phase with respect to phasing fossil fuels
out. Coal still accounts for the bulk of the power mix and will not give
up market shares to renewables without a fight. Norway will have finished
constructing two subsea cables for renewable electricity trade in 2020 and
2021, providing a greater contribution than before to a European energy
transition. However, the Norwegian storage of renewable energy is not
large enough for Norway to become a green battery for Europe, and
there has been considerable pushback from nature conservation and trade
unions against cable construction, making it unlikely that more cables are
the next phase of renewable expansion is hugely contingent on. Thus,
while the expansion of renewables is a clear goal in all our countries, it is
not equally obvious that the long-term renewable energy targets that most
countries declare come with a clear plan as to how these goals should be
reached. Or a strong awareness of which social, industrial, technological
and political problems will arise from the expansion and how they should
be solved in order to prevent resistance from vested interests or public
opinion.
To what extent do we have a renewable energy transition? Is renewable energy merely a supplement to the existing energy system, or has it
started to replace existing sources of energy? In 2014, it was really only
in Denmark that wind power was more than just a supplement. In 2020,
it is obvious that in Vietnam it is a supplement rather than a source for
structural change in the energy system. That is only to be expected in
a country that is still very much a rapidly growing developing country.
And it is a supplement in Singapore—also only to be expected, since this
is a country with very little available space for renewable installations.
Rather, the surprise in Singapore is that it has installed as much solar as
it has considering that there is no support system for renewable energy.
The South Korean renewable energy transformation is also very much
in an early phase, and it is hard to describe renewables yet as anything
but a supplement. For these three, the function of renewable energy has
primarily been to slightly improve the energy security situation, as well as
contributing a very modest climate bonus.
Can we identify energy transitions in the other countries? Japan is still
struggling with the aftereffects of Fukushima. We see solar PV having a
massively larger imprint than before, but that continued success cannot be
taken for granted and that wind is still struggling. In China, we see renewables increase their share of electricity production by about 1% per year,
but China is still in a very early phase with respect to phasing fossil fuels
out. Coal still accounts for the bulk of the power mix and will not give
up market shares to renewables without a fight. Norway will have finished
constructing two subsea cables for renewable electricity trade in 2020 and
2021, providing a greater contribution than before to a European energy
transition. However, the Norwegian storage of renewable energy is not
large enough for Norway to become a green battery for Europe, and
there has been considerable pushback from nature conservation and trade
unions against cable construction, making it unlikely that more cables are