15 CONCLUSIONS
393
solar combined to reach 40.2% of the energy mix and 11% of primary
energy. These are very ambitious targets when considering the current
situation.
Final Remarks
So, how should we summarize this book? First, there is no doubt that
much has happened since our previous book was published. Challenges
that were then in the future are very much reality now. In many ways these
challenges are not unexpected or unforeseen. Some of them were utterly
predictable. But that does not take away from the fact that as renewables
have become ever more successful, they force new challenges onto the
existing energy system, and these are the ones that we see in most of our
countries.
At the same time, we see less than revolutionary change in the four
countries that we also spent time and space on in 2014. Japan, China,
Norway and Denmark have all changed, but are also distinctly recognizable. Fukushima did not create as big of a revolution in Japanese energy
policies as many speculated that it might. China keeps phasing in ever
greater amounts of renewable energy without the changes to its grid
infrastructure being nearly as rapid, causing very predictable problems,
while coal is still a major energy actor. Denmark continues to phase in
wind power, but is finally experiencing security of supply concerns, even
if they are mainly in the future. Whereas in Norway the main debate is
one over the extent to which Norwegian renewable resources should be
exported and over renewable energy production vs. nature conservation.
It is a very different debate from that of the other countries, produced
by Norway’s largely unique geography and energy situation, and it has
intensified considerably. Yet, in many ways, it is not qualitatively different
from the debate about Norway as a green battery described by Gullberg
in 2013, one year before we published our previous book.
It seems that for most countries, their responses to the new challenges
to renewables addressed by this book really come down to muddling
through, pragmatically solving problems as they arise. It was for instance
utterly predictable that the first phase of renewable expansion could take
place within the existing grid system, but that continuous growth in
intermittent renewable energy generation eventually would challenge the
integrity of the grid. Yet, most countries have only very slowly started
rolling out incentives for grid expansion and grid improvements, which
393
solar combined to reach 40.2% of the energy mix and 11% of primary
energy. These are very ambitious targets when considering the current
situation.
Final Remarks
So, how should we summarize this book? First, there is no doubt that
much has happened since our previous book was published. Challenges
that were then in the future are very much reality now. In many ways these
challenges are not unexpected or unforeseen. Some of them were utterly
predictable. But that does not take away from the fact that as renewables
have become ever more successful, they force new challenges onto the
existing energy system, and these are the ones that we see in most of our
countries.
At the same time, we see less than revolutionary change in the four
countries that we also spent time and space on in 2014. Japan, China,
Norway and Denmark have all changed, but are also distinctly recognizable. Fukushima did not create as big of a revolution in Japanese energy
policies as many speculated that it might. China keeps phasing in ever
greater amounts of renewable energy without the changes to its grid
infrastructure being nearly as rapid, causing very predictable problems,
while coal is still a major energy actor. Denmark continues to phase in
wind power, but is finally experiencing security of supply concerns, even
if they are mainly in the future. Whereas in Norway the main debate is
one over the extent to which Norwegian renewable resources should be
exported and over renewable energy production vs. nature conservation.
It is a very different debate from that of the other countries, produced
by Norway’s largely unique geography and energy situation, and it has
intensified considerably. Yet, in many ways, it is not qualitatively different
from the debate about Norway as a green battery described by Gullberg
in 2013, one year before we published our previous book.
It seems that for most countries, their responses to the new challenges
to renewables addressed by this book really come down to muddling
through, pragmatically solving problems as they arise. It was for instance
utterly predictable that the first phase of renewable expansion could take
place within the existing grid system, but that continuous growth in
intermittent renewable energy generation eventually would challenge the
integrity of the grid. Yet, most countries have only very slowly started
rolling out incentives for grid expansion and grid improvements, which