384 E. MOE
making the Japan of 2020 a country that we in 2014 would immediately
have recognized, changes have clearly happened.
China is another country that has changed massively while staying very
much the same. In 2014, we noted that renewables in China had now
become bigger than nuclear, in terms of capacity and electricity generated. China was the world’s number one in terms of wind power capacity
already in 2010. At the end of 2013, more than 90 GW was installed,
and by the end of 2019, this had increased to 236 GW, more than double
that of the next country. By 2014, Chinese solar PV had mostly been an
export industry and was still in its infancy as a domestic power source.
This was however in a process of rapid change. From less than 1 GW
of installed capacity in 2010, it had reached 20 GW in 2013. It rose to
43 GW in 2015, when it surpassed Germany as the world’s number one,
and by the end of 2019, China passed 200 GW of installed capacity, about
three times more than the second largest country. Time and again China
has beaten its own targets, almost annually setting new installation world
records. The one area in which China underwhelmed back in 2014 was
in offshore wind. Here, the pace has however increased markedly. With
nearly 7 GW China is still behind Great Britain and Germany on total
capacity (but arguably not for long), but now has the largest offshore
wind market in the world (China Energy Portal 2020; GWEC 2020; Moe
2014b).
However, in terms of share of power generation, it also becomes
evident that high absolute numbers do not tell the whole story. At the
end of 2013, wind and solar accounted for no more than 2.8% of the
Chinese power mix. This rose to 8.5% by the end of 2019. There are
several things to say about this. First, it is a very sizeable increase, especially for solar PV, which went from a negligible 0.3 to 3%. But second,
it is not impressive compared to countries like Denmark and Germany,
and as late as 2015, the USA generated more wind power electricity than
China despite having only half the installed capacity. Thus, the Chinese
case is also a cautionary lesson not to be so overwhelmed by impressive installation figures that we forget to check if those figures translate
into equally impressive renewable electricity generation. We noted that
there were numerous factors behind China getting less electricity out of
its installations than the USA. And third, this means that China’s energy
economy is still overwhelmingly dominated by coal. Granted, the coal
share has decreased, from almost 68% in 2013 to approximately 60%
in 2018 and is predicted to keep falling, but in absolute figures, China
making the Japan of 2020 a country that we in 2014 would immediately
have recognized, changes have clearly happened.
China is another country that has changed massively while staying very
much the same. In 2014, we noted that renewables in China had now
become bigger than nuclear, in terms of capacity and electricity generated. China was the world’s number one in terms of wind power capacity
already in 2010. At the end of 2013, more than 90 GW was installed,
and by the end of 2019, this had increased to 236 GW, more than double
that of the next country. By 2014, Chinese solar PV had mostly been an
export industry and was still in its infancy as a domestic power source.
This was however in a process of rapid change. From less than 1 GW
of installed capacity in 2010, it had reached 20 GW in 2013. It rose to
43 GW in 2015, when it surpassed Germany as the world’s number one,
and by the end of 2019, China passed 200 GW of installed capacity, about
three times more than the second largest country. Time and again China
has beaten its own targets, almost annually setting new installation world
records. The one area in which China underwhelmed back in 2014 was
in offshore wind. Here, the pace has however increased markedly. With
nearly 7 GW China is still behind Great Britain and Germany on total
capacity (but arguably not for long), but now has the largest offshore
wind market in the world (China Energy Portal 2020; GWEC 2020; Moe
2014b).
However, in terms of share of power generation, it also becomes
evident that high absolute numbers do not tell the whole story. At the
end of 2013, wind and solar accounted for no more than 2.8% of the
Chinese power mix. This rose to 8.5% by the end of 2019. There are
several things to say about this. First, it is a very sizeable increase, especially for solar PV, which went from a negligible 0.3 to 3%. But second,
it is not impressive compared to countries like Denmark and Germany,
and as late as 2015, the USA generated more wind power electricity than
China despite having only half the installed capacity. Thus, the Chinese
case is also a cautionary lesson not to be so overwhelmed by impressive installation figures that we forget to check if those figures translate
into equally impressive renewable electricity generation. We noted that
there were numerous factors behind China getting less electricity out of
its installations than the USA. And third, this means that China’s energy
economy is still overwhelmingly dominated by coal. Granted, the coal
share has decreased, from almost 68% in 2013 to approximately 60%
in 2018 and is predicted to keep falling, but in absolute figures, China