90
their sales in the one-stop-shop market would have affected the long-term sales
revenue generated by the same index, and the incomes of producers would be volatile. Considering the crucial role of volatility in financial markets, over recent years,
attention has been paid to analyzing market volatility. Since the major share of oil
revenues in GDP and revenues of oil-exporting countries, and in particular, the role
of providing the country’s currency through the sale of crude oil, the impact of US
monetary policy on the fluctuation of global crude oil prices and, consequently, the
Iranian economy is important (Razavi et al. 2016:184).
Carolyn Barnett, one of the 12 members of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, in an article entitled “The New Revolution of Energy and the
Arab States of the Gulf,” states: “With increasing domestic production, US oil
imports are low, and as a result, the Gulf states’ position in the energy import market
of the United States has also declined. This will give the United States more autonomy in energy and pursue its foreign policy towards developments in Egypt, Syria
and Iran in different ways.” According to Barnett, the energy revolution has created
a transformation of public opinion and an obstacle. Regarding the traditional role of
providing military support to the Gulf states after the developments in Iraq and
Afghanistan, “We will see the United States transition from defender to advocate for
a defensive process with criticism”(Barnett 2019:3).
The change in the flow of liquidity between financial markets and commodity
exchanges is affected by the change in US policy interest rates. The US currency has
a direct impact on cash flow in commodity exchanges and global financial markets.
The change in US monetary policy will change the opportunities for investment in
financial markets, and liquidity from financial markets to commodity exchanges
will affect international commodity prices, including agricultural commodities,
bonds, the money market, nonmarket capital markets. Studies show that US monetary policy has a significant effect on the formation of prices for many commodities,
including petroleum products, agriculture, and so on. With regard to the relationship
between financial markets and the oil market through interest rates, the price of
crude oil in the short run will deviate from the long-term path (Razavi et al.
2016:185).
It will also lead to a positive change in the capital market index due to the development of industrial activities, which in turn could lead to an increase in demand for
crude oil on the market. Given the high share of oil revenues and its fluctuation in
the budget and economic stability of the country, it is suggested that more support
be provided for modeling studies to determine and predict the factors affecting the
effective and cost-effective oil prices in the country (Razavi et al. 2016:185–202).
With regard to competition in the international energy market, it is in the interest
of all the world’s main actors to remove a major oil and gas player from Iran and
eliminate all of its oil and gas from the market so that all producers will be happy
and comfortable to play. Iran is an option to be removed from the market, it is
because countries such as Iran, Iraq, and Kazakhstan are those who are capable of
generating oil and gas production and supply, while Mr. Zanganeh said oil production would reach 5.7 million barrels for another 4 years and Iran’s gas production is
3 International Context of the New Era and the Caspian Sea Region
their sales in the one-stop-shop market would have affected the long-term sales
revenue generated by the same index, and the incomes of producers would be volatile. Considering the crucial role of volatility in financial markets, over recent years,
attention has been paid to analyzing market volatility. Since the major share of oil
revenues in GDP and revenues of oil-exporting countries, and in particular, the role
of providing the country’s currency through the sale of crude oil, the impact of US
monetary policy on the fluctuation of global crude oil prices and, consequently, the
Iranian economy is important (Razavi et al. 2016:184).
Carolyn Barnett, one of the 12 members of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, in an article entitled “The New Revolution of Energy and the
Arab States of the Gulf,” states: “With increasing domestic production, US oil
imports are low, and as a result, the Gulf states’ position in the energy import market
of the United States has also declined. This will give the United States more autonomy in energy and pursue its foreign policy towards developments in Egypt, Syria
and Iran in different ways.” According to Barnett, the energy revolution has created
a transformation of public opinion and an obstacle. Regarding the traditional role of
providing military support to the Gulf states after the developments in Iraq and
Afghanistan, “We will see the United States transition from defender to advocate for
a defensive process with criticism”(Barnett 2019:3).
The change in the flow of liquidity between financial markets and commodity
exchanges is affected by the change in US policy interest rates. The US currency has
a direct impact on cash flow in commodity exchanges and global financial markets.
The change in US monetary policy will change the opportunities for investment in
financial markets, and liquidity from financial markets to commodity exchanges
will affect international commodity prices, including agricultural commodities,
bonds, the money market, nonmarket capital markets. Studies show that US monetary policy has a significant effect on the formation of prices for many commodities,
including petroleum products, agriculture, and so on. With regard to the relationship
between financial markets and the oil market through interest rates, the price of
crude oil in the short run will deviate from the long-term path (Razavi et al.
2016:185).
It will also lead to a positive change in the capital market index due to the development of industrial activities, which in turn could lead to an increase in demand for
crude oil on the market. Given the high share of oil revenues and its fluctuation in
the budget and economic stability of the country, it is suggested that more support
be provided for modeling studies to determine and predict the factors affecting the
effective and cost-effective oil prices in the country (Razavi et al. 2016:185–202).
With regard to competition in the international energy market, it is in the interest
of all the world’s main actors to remove a major oil and gas player from Iran and
eliminate all of its oil and gas from the market so that all producers will be happy
and comfortable to play. Iran is an option to be removed from the market, it is
because countries such as Iran, Iraq, and Kazakhstan are those who are capable of
generating oil and gas production and supply, while Mr. Zanganeh said oil production would reach 5.7 million barrels for another 4 years and Iran’s gas production is
3 International Context of the New Era and the Caspian Sea Region