5 Reality and Challenges of China’s Water Resources Management …
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the development trend of the power industry should be conducted by employing the
suitable modeling methods for the specific topic of research.
This study centers on the impact of China’s power sector development on water
resources, assuming that it meets the needs of future power consumption. Discussions
on the features of power industry in previous sections inform us that the demand for
water resources shows strong correlation with the technology adopted and the spatial
variation of water resources. Therefore, a bottom-up model based on technological
difference is more relevant for this analysis. MESEIC (Multi-regional model for
Energy Supply System and their Environmental Impacts), an optimization model of
the power sector based on technological difference, is adopted for the assessment on
the trend of China’s electricity industry. Since such development involves geographical uncertainties, different development scenarios and CO 2 emission targets can be
hypothetically set for discussion.
5.3.3.2 Modelling
MESEIC model is a multi-regional, bottom-up optimization model for the power
sector. In light of the great variation in power demand and resources endowment
among regions, and provincial differences in technological features and grid transmission due to the provincial-based management of the sector, this model divides
Chinese mainland into 32 provincial zones (of which Inner Mongolia is broken down
as East Inner Mongolia and West Inner Mongolia) based on the actual administrative
demarcation. Cross-regional power transmission is also considered for an optimized
simulation of power supply and demand in provincial zones from 2015 to 2050.
14 mainstream power production technologies are included in the model, including
various fossil fuels such as coal-fired and gas-fired power generation technologies,
renewables such as wind, solar, hydro and biomass power, as well as nuclear power.
Based on the scenario framework of SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) that
shows varied development scenarios stemming from varied socioeconomic development paths, three scenario assumptions are chosen, namely sustainable development
scenario with low power demand (SSP1), regular development scenario (SSP2) and
high challenge scenario with growing power demand (SSP5); meanwhile, as over half
of the CO 2 emissions from human activities are attributable to the power industry,
the impact of varied CO 2 emission targets has been factored in when setting the
scenarios. Specifically, both the emission target of no emission restraint and 2 °C
emission pathway are considered.
5.3.3.3 Future Trend of Power Industry Development
When meeting the 2 °C target (Fig. 5.19 a-1, b-1, c-1) in 2050, China’s total coal power
will be substantially lower than in regular scenario (Fig. 5.20 a-2, b-2, c-2), which
testifies to synergistic benefit of reduced coal power to the fulfillment of CO 2 emission
target. Meanwhile, without factoring in CO 2 emission target, varied power demand
187
the development trend of the power industry should be conducted by employing the
suitable modeling methods for the specific topic of research.
This study centers on the impact of China’s power sector development on water
resources, assuming that it meets the needs of future power consumption. Discussions
on the features of power industry in previous sections inform us that the demand for
water resources shows strong correlation with the technology adopted and the spatial
variation of water resources. Therefore, a bottom-up model based on technological
difference is more relevant for this analysis. MESEIC (Multi-regional model for
Energy Supply System and their Environmental Impacts), an optimization model of
the power sector based on technological difference, is adopted for the assessment on
the trend of China’s electricity industry. Since such development involves geographical uncertainties, different development scenarios and CO 2 emission targets can be
hypothetically set for discussion.
5.3.3.2 Modelling
MESEIC model is a multi-regional, bottom-up optimization model for the power
sector. In light of the great variation in power demand and resources endowment
among regions, and provincial differences in technological features and grid transmission due to the provincial-based management of the sector, this model divides
Chinese mainland into 32 provincial zones (of which Inner Mongolia is broken down
as East Inner Mongolia and West Inner Mongolia) based on the actual administrative
demarcation. Cross-regional power transmission is also considered for an optimized
simulation of power supply and demand in provincial zones from 2015 to 2050.
14 mainstream power production technologies are included in the model, including
various fossil fuels such as coal-fired and gas-fired power generation technologies,
renewables such as wind, solar, hydro and biomass power, as well as nuclear power.
Based on the scenario framework of SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) that
shows varied development scenarios stemming from varied socioeconomic development paths, three scenario assumptions are chosen, namely sustainable development
scenario with low power demand (SSP1), regular development scenario (SSP2) and
high challenge scenario with growing power demand (SSP5); meanwhile, as over half
of the CO 2 emissions from human activities are attributable to the power industry,
the impact of varied CO 2 emission targets has been factored in when setting the
scenarios. Specifically, both the emission target of no emission restraint and 2 °C
emission pathway are considered.
5.3.3.3 Future Trend of Power Industry Development
When meeting the 2 °C target (Fig. 5.19 a-1, b-1, c-1) in 2050, China’s total coal power
will be substantially lower than in regular scenario (Fig. 5.20 a-2, b-2, c-2), which
testifies to synergistic benefit of reduced coal power to the fulfillment of CO 2 emission
target. Meanwhile, without factoring in CO 2 emission target, varied power demand