186
W. Cai et al.
Generally speaking, nearly half of the industrial water demand in China stems from
the power sector, most of which are coal-fired power plants; water use technologies
adopted in coal-fired power plants exert defining impact on total water demand, but
most of the coal-fired power plants installing advanced cooling technologies are
located in water shortage regions that have limited water-saving potential; while
due to the circular cooling will reduce the generating efficiency, the once-through
cooling might still be the preferred choice of coal-fired power plants in regions with
an abundance of water. Therefore, water demand of the power sector will probably be
the largest industrial water consumer, and there still have great necessity to discuss
the water demand issues in power sector, such as the construction of coal-fired power
plants is subject to further justification and assessment; coal-fired power plants have
triggered acute water shortage in some regions, which are scarce in water in the
first place. To be summarized, coal-fired power development in the future, while
meeting the need of power production, should accommodate water availability and
other environmental factors with sound planning of its footprint.
5.3.3 Trend of China’s Power Industry in Future: Methods,
Tools and Conclusions
5.3.3.1 Method Overview
A crucial energy sector in socioeconomic activities, the power sector is subject to a
variety of interconnected factors in its development. The change in one factor would
incur a string of changes in the others, which adds to the challenge of forecasting
development of the sector, and calls for mathematical modeling for trend analysis.
In terms of modeling methodology, the methodological tools in the power sector
mainly fall into two categories: bottom-up and top-down, different from each other
in the angle of research. With its roots in traditional economic model, the top-down
approach employs a macro socio-economic perspective and seeks to describe the
changes in supply and demand of the energy system as a result of macroeconomic
shifts, considering the impact of economic changes on varied sectors and price elasticity as the main economic index, but is unable to delineate the impact from technological trends. Currently, top-down models used in diagnosing power industry
and other energy sectors mainly include macro-econometric model, general equilibrium model (CGE) and input–output model. On the contrary, bottom-up models
aim to diagnose the comprehensive effect produced by technological changes and
their impact on the energy-environmental-economic system based on detailed technical description of varied techniques and processes. The bottom-up energy system
models boast abundant description of energy technologies and are based on technical
processes adopted by human activities that reflect energy consumption and production, and provide forecast on energy consumption and way of production. Study on
W. Cai et al.
Generally speaking, nearly half of the industrial water demand in China stems from
the power sector, most of which are coal-fired power plants; water use technologies
adopted in coal-fired power plants exert defining impact on total water demand, but
most of the coal-fired power plants installing advanced cooling technologies are
located in water shortage regions that have limited water-saving potential; while
due to the circular cooling will reduce the generating efficiency, the once-through
cooling might still be the preferred choice of coal-fired power plants in regions with
an abundance of water. Therefore, water demand of the power sector will probably be
the largest industrial water consumer, and there still have great necessity to discuss
the water demand issues in power sector, such as the construction of coal-fired power
plants is subject to further justification and assessment; coal-fired power plants have
triggered acute water shortage in some regions, which are scarce in water in the
first place. To be summarized, coal-fired power development in the future, while
meeting the need of power production, should accommodate water availability and
other environmental factors with sound planning of its footprint.
5.3.3 Trend of China’s Power Industry in Future: Methods,
Tools and Conclusions
5.3.3.1 Method Overview
A crucial energy sector in socioeconomic activities, the power sector is subject to a
variety of interconnected factors in its development. The change in one factor would
incur a string of changes in the others, which adds to the challenge of forecasting
development of the sector, and calls for mathematical modeling for trend analysis.
In terms of modeling methodology, the methodological tools in the power sector
mainly fall into two categories: bottom-up and top-down, different from each other
in the angle of research. With its roots in traditional economic model, the top-down
approach employs a macro socio-economic perspective and seeks to describe the
changes in supply and demand of the energy system as a result of macroeconomic
shifts, considering the impact of economic changes on varied sectors and price elasticity as the main economic index, but is unable to delineate the impact from technological trends. Currently, top-down models used in diagnosing power industry
and other energy sectors mainly include macro-econometric model, general equilibrium model (CGE) and input–output model. On the contrary, bottom-up models
aim to diagnose the comprehensive effect produced by technological changes and
their impact on the energy-environmental-economic system based on detailed technical description of varied techniques and processes. The bottom-up energy system
models boast abundant description of energy technologies and are based on technical
processes adopted by human activities that reflect energy consumption and production, and provide forecast on energy consumption and way of production. Study on