the state of detection and isolation of patients in real time and make timely suggestions for improving the situation.
Figure 6.24 shows the results of calculations with the use of the values of
optimal parameters for prediction 2. It can bee seen that the hidden period in
Moldova (distance between t
Ã
1 and the day when the first COVID-19 case was
laboratory confirmed) was estimated to be not very long. But the low accuracy of
the predictions casts doubt on this conclusion. It is likely that new forecasts using
more recent data will give a longer duration of the hidden period for Moldova.
6.11 Ukraine
In this section, we consider the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine
and present the results of several SIR simulations.
SIR simulations for the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in Ukraine were performed with the use of V j and t j data sets presented in Tables 6.11, 6.19, 6.20 and
6.22 for different time periods T c taken for calculations. Some results were published in [71–73, 76–78].
The first laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case in Ukraine was registered on
March 3, 2020 (see Table 6.19). The first SIR simulations have been performed
with the use of data sets corresponding to the epidemic beginning. The results are
presented in Table 6.21 and Figs. 6.25 and 6.26. All three predictions presented in
Table 6.21 were very optimistic, but the actual number of cases V j recorded in
Fig. 6.24 Moldova, first epidemic wave, prediction 2: SIR curves (lines) and accumulated
number of cases (markers) versus time. Numbers of infected I (green), removed R (black) and the
number of victims V = I + R (blue line); “circles” show the cases taken for calculations;
“triangles” correspond to the cases during initial stage of the epidemic; “stars”—the last data
points used only for a verification of the prediction
74
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
Figure 6.24 shows the results of calculations with the use of the values of
optimal parameters for prediction 2. It can bee seen that the hidden period in
Moldova (distance between t
Ã
1 and the day when the first COVID-19 case was
laboratory confirmed) was estimated to be not very long. But the low accuracy of
the predictions casts doubt on this conclusion. It is likely that new forecasts using
more recent data will give a longer duration of the hidden period for Moldova.
6.11 Ukraine
In this section, we consider the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine
and present the results of several SIR simulations.
SIR simulations for the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in Ukraine were performed with the use of V j and t j data sets presented in Tables 6.11, 6.19, 6.20 and
6.22 for different time periods T c taken for calculations. Some results were published in [71–73, 76–78].
The first laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case in Ukraine was registered on
March 3, 2020 (see Table 6.19). The first SIR simulations have been performed
with the use of data sets corresponding to the epidemic beginning. The results are
presented in Table 6.21 and Figs. 6.25 and 6.26. All three predictions presented in
Table 6.21 were very optimistic, but the actual number of cases V j recorded in
Fig. 6.24 Moldova, first epidemic wave, prediction 2: SIR curves (lines) and accumulated
number of cases (markers) versus time. Numbers of infected I (green), removed R (black) and the
number of victims V = I + R (blue line); “circles” show the cases taken for calculations;
“triangles” correspond to the cases during initial stage of the epidemic; “stars”—the last data
points used only for a verification of the prediction
74
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …