V 1 = 15,108 (see Table 6.12), predicted and posted in [83] on April 22, 2020. The
reason for these discrepancies is that the theory used in this chapter describes only
the first waves of the epidemic with fixed characteristics. Changes in quarantine
conditions and social behavior have changed the parameters of the epidemic and
made the classical SIR model unusable. Later, we will discuss how changes in the
characteristics of the epidemic can be taken into account in a generalized SIR
model.
Table 6.11 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in Ukraine and Austria used for
calculations, verifications of predictions and estimations of the pandemic dynamics after
quarantines weakening [1, 78]
Day in
April
and
May,
2020
Time
in
days
t j
Number
of cases
in
Ukraine
Number
of cases
in
Austria
Day in
May
and
June,
2020
Time
in
days
t j
Number
of cases
in
Ukraine
Number
of cases
in
Austria
25
96
8617
15,134
21
122
20,148
16,332
26
97
9009
15,189
22
123
20,580
16,361
27
98
9410
15,256
23
124
20,986
16,407
28
99
9866
15,314
24
125
21,245
16,439
29
100
10,406
15,364
25
126
21,584
16,459
30
101
10,861
15,457
26
127
21,905
16,497
1
102
11,411
15,531
27
128
22,382
16,515
2
103
11,913
15,558
28
129
22,811
16,543
3
104
12,331
15,597
29
130
23,294
16,594
4
105
12,697
15,621
30
131
23,672
16,638
5
106
13,184
15,586
31
132
24,002
16,642
6
107
13,691
15,651
1
133
24,340
16,663
7
108
14,195
15,673
2
134
24,823
16,674
8
109
14,710
15,735
3
135
25,411
16,705
9
110
15,232
15,777
4
136
25,964
16,741
10
111
15,648
15,787
5
137
26,514
16,803
11
112
16,023
15,874
6
138
26,999
16,822
12
113
16,425
15,910
7
139
27,462
16,868
13
114
16,847
15,964
8
140
27,856
16,889
14
115
17,330
16,005
9
141
28,381
16,902
15
116
17,858
16,068
10
142
29,070
16,936
16
117
18,291
16,140
11
143
29,753
16,964
17
118
18,616
16,154
12
144
30,506
16,994
18
119
18,876
16,179
13
145
31,154
17,014
19
120
19,230
16,257
14
146
31,810
17,038
20
121
19,706
16,275
15
147
32,476
17,065
It should be noted some incorrectness in WHO data (the number of cases in Austria corresponding
May 5 is lower than for the previous day)
58
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
reason for these discrepancies is that the theory used in this chapter describes only
the first waves of the epidemic with fixed characteristics. Changes in quarantine
conditions and social behavior have changed the parameters of the epidemic and
made the classical SIR model unusable. Later, we will discuss how changes in the
characteristics of the epidemic can be taken into account in a generalized SIR
model.
Table 6.11 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in Ukraine and Austria used for
calculations, verifications of predictions and estimations of the pandemic dynamics after
quarantines weakening [1, 78]
Day in
April
and
May,
2020
Time
in
days
t j
Number
of cases
in
Ukraine
Number
of cases
in
Austria
Day in
May
and
June,
2020
Time
in
days
t j
Number
of cases
in
Ukraine
Number
of cases
in
Austria
25
96
8617
15,134
21
122
20,148
16,332
26
97
9009
15,189
22
123
20,580
16,361
27
98
9410
15,256
23
124
20,986
16,407
28
99
9866
15,314
24
125
21,245
16,439
29
100
10,406
15,364
25
126
21,584
16,459
30
101
10,861
15,457
26
127
21,905
16,497
1
102
11,411
15,531
27
128
22,382
16,515
2
103
11,913
15,558
28
129
22,811
16,543
3
104
12,331
15,597
29
130
23,294
16,594
4
105
12,697
15,621
30
131
23,672
16,638
5
106
13,184
15,586
31
132
24,002
16,642
6
107
13,691
15,651
1
133
24,340
16,663
7
108
14,195
15,673
2
134
24,823
16,674
8
109
14,710
15,735
3
135
25,411
16,705
9
110
15,232
15,777
4
136
25,964
16,741
10
111
15,648
15,787
5
137
26,514
16,803
11
112
16,023
15,874
6
138
26,999
16,822
12
113
16,425
15,910
7
139
27,462
16,868
13
114
16,847
15,964
8
140
27,856
16,889
14
115
17,330
16,005
9
141
28,381
16,902
15
116
17,858
16,068
10
142
29,070
16,936
16
117
18,291
16,140
11
143
29,753
16,964
17
118
18,616
16,154
12
144
30,506
16,994
18
119
18,876
16,179
13
145
31,154
17,014
19
120
19,230
16,257
14
146
31,810
17,038
20
121
19,706
16,275
15
147
32,476
17,065
It should be noted some incorrectness in WHO data (the number of cases in Austria corresponding
May 5 is lower than for the previous day)
58
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …