Table 6.12 Predictions 4–6 for the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Austria
Number of
prediction/
optimal values of
parameters,
characteristics
Prediction 4
n = 16
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 21–April 5,
2020
Prediction 5
n = 21
Period taken for
calculations T c : March
21–April 10, 2020
Prediction 6
n = 14
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 28–April 10,
2020
N
64,200
71,300
75,176.032
m
57,523.2
63,884.8
67,343.8674559792
a
3.91631629710e-05
2.73374610690213e-05
1.924971386379e-05
t
Ã
1
4.88499029942458
−2.43641632159448
−15.8059189609884
q
2.25279045621570
1.74644823290221
1.29635017900866
1=q
0.44389392597118
0.572590690729046
0.771396507049289
r
0.9994765957676
0.996416626357582
0.996465578483694
F, Eq. (2.9)
13,363.4852428387
2636.89149376656
1688.59570093583
F=F C ð1; n À 2Þ
772.455794383737
173.479703537274
90.7847151040770
S 1 , Eq. (4.9)
51,319
56,995
60,068
V 1 , Eq. (4.16)
12,881
14,304
15,108
t final , Eq. (4.17)
62.6
73.1
86.5
Final day of the
first wave
April 25, 2020
May 5, 2020
May 18, 2020
V f , taken from
[1]
15,134
15,586
16,179
e, Eq. (4.20)
14.9%
8.2%
6.6%
Optimal values of parameters and other SIR model characteristics
Fig. 6.13 Austria, prediction 3: SIR curves (lines) and accumulated number of cases (markers)
versus time. Numbers of infected I (green), removed R (black) and the number of victims
V = I + R (blue line); “circles” show the cases taken for calculations; “triangles” correspond to the
cases during initial stage of the epidemic; “star”—the last data point used only for a verification of
the prediction
6.4 Austria
59
Number of
prediction/
optimal values of
parameters,
characteristics
Prediction 4
n = 16
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 21–April 5,
2020
Prediction 5
n = 21
Period taken for
calculations T c : March
21–April 10, 2020
Prediction 6
n = 14
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 28–April 10,
2020
N
64,200
71,300
75,176.032
m
57,523.2
63,884.8
67,343.8674559792
a
3.91631629710e-05
2.73374610690213e-05
1.924971386379e-05
t
Ã
1
4.88499029942458
−2.43641632159448
−15.8059189609884
q
2.25279045621570
1.74644823290221
1.29635017900866
1=q
0.44389392597118
0.572590690729046
0.771396507049289
r
0.9994765957676
0.996416626357582
0.996465578483694
F, Eq. (2.9)
13,363.4852428387
2636.89149376656
1688.59570093583
F=F C ð1; n À 2Þ
772.455794383737
173.479703537274
90.7847151040770
S 1 , Eq. (4.9)
51,319
56,995
60,068
V 1 , Eq. (4.16)
12,881
14,304
15,108
t final , Eq. (4.17)
62.6
73.1
86.5
Final day of the
first wave
April 25, 2020
May 5, 2020
May 18, 2020
V f , taken from
[1]
15,134
15,586
16,179
e, Eq. (4.20)
14.9%
8.2%
6.6%
Optimal values of parameters and other SIR model characteristics
Fig. 6.13 Austria, prediction 3: SIR curves (lines) and accumulated number of cases (markers)
versus time. Numbers of infected I (green), removed R (black) and the number of victims
V = I + R (blue line); “circles” show the cases taken for calculations; “triangles” correspond to the
cases during initial stage of the epidemic; “star”—the last data point used only for a verification of
the prediction
6.4 Austria
59