Table 6.10 Predictions 1–3 for the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Austria
Number of
prediction/optimal
values of parameters,
characteristics
Prediction 1
n = 13
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 6–18, 2020
Prediction 2
n = 16
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 14–29, 2020
Prediction 3
n ¼ 23
Period taken for
calculations T c :
March 14–April 5, 2020
N
12,529.6
71,099.22048
65,613.696
m
10,636.672136192
63,712.2688217289 58,821.6712255282
a
0.000176292342229 3.190277719e-05
3.63707317842e-05
t
Ã
1
6.60315754396316
2.38559451409778
3.38412182748648
q
5.567
2.03259831679520
2.13938722724589
1=q
0.1796
0.491981121767681 0.467423562814918
r
0.998805
0.99806
0.999267711104992
S 1 , Eq. (4.9)
8940
56,848
52,508
V 1 , Eq. (4.16)
3589
14,251
13,106
t final , Eq. (4.17)
47.1
67.3
64.5
Final day of the first
wave
April 10, 2020
April 30, 2020
April 27, 2020
V f , taken from [1]
13,560
15,457
15,256
e, Eq. (4.20)
73.5%
7.8%
14.1%
Optimal values of parameters and other SIR model characteristics
Fig. 6.12 Austria, first epidemic wave, prediction 1. Results of calculations. Numbers of infected
I multiplied by 10 (dashed line), removed R (dotted line) and the number of victims
V = I + R (solid line); the “circles” correspond to the confirmed accumulated number of cases
in Austria taken for calculations; “triangles” show the cases before March 6, 2020
6.4 Austria
57