It turned out that this forecast gives the smallest values of error e = 6.6%;
therefore, it can be considered as one of the best predictions based on classical SIR
model. As of September 26, 2020 (see WHO weekly update report [52]), the
number of cases in Austria 42,940 exceeded 2.8 times the saturation level
Table 6.9 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in Italy, Austria and Ukraine used for
calculations, comparisons and verifications of predictions [1, 71]
Day in March
and April, 2020
Time
moments in
days t j
Number of
cases in Italy
V J
Number of cases
in Austria V Aj
Number of cases
in Ukraine V Uj
5
12
3858
47
1
6
13
4636
66
1
7
14
5883
104
1
8
15
7375
112
1
9
16
9172
131
1
10
17
10,149
182
1
11
18
12,462
302
1
12
19
15,113
361
3
13
20
17,660
504
3
14
21
21,157
800
3
15
22
24,747
959
3
16
23
27,980
1132
7
17
24
31,506
1332
14
18
25
35,713
1646
16
19
26
41,035
1843
16
20
27
47,021
2649
26
21
28
53,578
3024
47
22
29
59,138
3631
47
23
30
63,927
4486
84
24
31
69,176
5282
113
25
32
74,386
5888
156
26
33
80,539
7029
218
27
34
86,498
7697
311
28
35
92,472
8291
418
29
36
97,689
8813
480
30
37
101,739
9618
549
31
38
105,792
10,182
669
1
39
110,574
10,711
804
2
40
115,242
11,129
987
3
41
119,827
11,525
1096
4
42
124,632
11,766
1251
5
43
128,948
11,983
1319
6
44
132,547
12,297
1462
56
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …