6.2 The Republic of Korea
Here, we consider the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Republic of
Korea with use the official WHO daily data ([1], Tables 1.1 and 6.3) and the
approach presented in Chaps. 4 and 5.
The first prediction uses V j data from the period of time February 17–March 12,
2020, available in Table 1.1. The results of calculations are presented in Table 6.2
(prediction 1) and in Fig. 6.5. This prediction was very optimistic, since the final
number of cases was estimated as V 1 % 8117 and the stop of local transmission
was estimated after March 20, 2020 (t final % 26), provided that existing in the period
February 17–March 12 quarantine measures and patient isolation rates will
continue.
All the parameters in SIR model are supposed to be constant. If new infected
persons are still coming in the country and spread the infection, the value N is not
constant. This fact can reduce the accuracy of prediction. If these “new imported”
and connected with them cases can be calculated and extracted from the total
number, the accuracy of the prediction could be improved.
The estimation of the average time of spreading the infection in South Korea
looks incredible in this prediction (s ¼ 1=q ¼ 0:1796); i.e., this value was
approximately 4.3 h. By comparison, in mainland China it was approximately
2.5 days (see prediction 2 in Table 6.1). That is why the V(t) and R(t) curves are
very close in Fig. 6.5 and the maximal number of persons spreading the infection I
Table 6.2 Calculated optimal values of SIR model parameters for the COVID-19 epidemic in
South Korea (first wave)
Number of prediction/
optimal values of
parameters
Prediction 1
n = 25
Period taken for calculations T c :
February 17–March 12, 2020
Prediction 2
n = 21
Period taken for
calculations T c : April 9–
29, 2020
N
68,037.824
13,679.54688
m
63,900.7878956716
6892.82635608829
a
8.71198727144046e-05
1.91761713114e-05
t
Ã
1
−9.19521866246193
−55.5257861059147
q
5.567
0.132178019
1=q
0.1796
7.5655544
r
0.9964
0.99686044433
S 1 , Eq. (4.9)
59,921
2837
V 1 , Eq. (4.16)
8117
10,842
t final , Eq. (4.17)
26
127.8
Final day of the first wave
March 20, 2020
June 29, 2020
V f , taken from [1]
8799
12,800
e, Eq. (4.20)
7.8%
15.3%
42
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
Here, we consider the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Republic of
Korea with use the official WHO daily data ([1], Tables 1.1 and 6.3) and the
approach presented in Chaps. 4 and 5.
The first prediction uses V j data from the period of time February 17–March 12,
2020, available in Table 1.1. The results of calculations are presented in Table 6.2
(prediction 1) and in Fig. 6.5. This prediction was very optimistic, since the final
number of cases was estimated as V 1 % 8117 and the stop of local transmission
was estimated after March 20, 2020 (t final % 26), provided that existing in the period
February 17–March 12 quarantine measures and patient isolation rates will
continue.
All the parameters in SIR model are supposed to be constant. If new infected
persons are still coming in the country and spread the infection, the value N is not
constant. This fact can reduce the accuracy of prediction. If these “new imported”
and connected with them cases can be calculated and extracted from the total
number, the accuracy of the prediction could be improved.
The estimation of the average time of spreading the infection in South Korea
looks incredible in this prediction (s ¼ 1=q ¼ 0:1796); i.e., this value was
approximately 4.3 h. By comparison, in mainland China it was approximately
2.5 days (see prediction 2 in Table 6.1). That is why the V(t) and R(t) curves are
very close in Fig. 6.5 and the maximal number of persons spreading the infection I
Table 6.2 Calculated optimal values of SIR model parameters for the COVID-19 epidemic in
South Korea (first wave)
Number of prediction/
optimal values of
parameters
Prediction 1
n = 25
Period taken for calculations T c :
February 17–March 12, 2020
Prediction 2
n = 21
Period taken for
calculations T c : April 9–
29, 2020
N
68,037.824
13,679.54688
m
63,900.7878956716
6892.82635608829
a
8.71198727144046e-05
1.91761713114e-05
t
Ã
1
−9.19521866246193
−55.5257861059147
q
5.567
0.132178019
1=q
0.1796
7.5655544
r
0.9964
0.99686044433
S 1 , Eq. (4.9)
59,921
2837
V 1 , Eq. (4.16)
8117
10,842
t final , Eq. (4.17)
26
127.8
Final day of the first wave
March 20, 2020
June 29, 2020
V f , taken from [1]
8799
12,800
e, Eq. (4.20)
7.8%
15.3%
42
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …