values of parameters are presented in Table 6.1 (prediction 2). It can be seen that
the value of the correlation coefficient is very high r = 0.99453. The value of the
Fisher function is 1360.2 (according to (2.9)) that far exceeds the critical value
F C ð1; 15Þ ¼ 16:6 even for the significance level 0.001 (see, e.g., [34]).
The values of the final number of susceptible persons S 1 % 57; 061 and the final
number of victims V 1 % 81; 257 were calculated with the use of (4.9) and (4.16).
The corresponding numbers of infected I, susceptible S and removed R persons
versus time (starting from January 16, 2020) are presented in Fig. 6.3. The blue line
represents the number of victims V = I + R and is in good agreement with W j + Q j
values taken for calculations (blue “circles”). The difference between the blue line
and W j values (shown by blue “triangles”) can be treated as corresponding Q j values
which are not available for statistical analysis.
To estimate the epidemic duration in mainland China (final time moment t final ),
the condition (4.17) was used. The calculations gave us the value t final % 119.
According to this prediction, the end of epidemic in China was expected to be
around May 14, 2020, provided the existing quarantine measures and rates of
patient isolation will continue and the warm weather will not weaken the
coronavirus.
To demonstrate the accuracy of prediction 2, two new values of W j + Q j corresponding the first two days of March are shown in Fig. 6.3 by blue “stars.” As
noted in the previous chapters, the applied approach can describe only the first wave
of the epidemic and does not take into account imported cases, so to assess its
Fig. 6.3 Mainland China, prediction 2. Results of calculations and verification. Numbers of
infected I (green line), susceptible S (red line) and removed R (black line) persons versus time in
days (starting from January 16, 2020); the blue line represents the number of victims V = I + R;
blue markers show cumulative number of confirmed cases, reported by NHC [2]; the “circles”
correspond to the points used for calculations (it was supposed that V j = W j + Q j ); “stars”—to the
points used only for verification; “triangles” represent the W j data set, which has not been used for
calculations (see Table 1.2)
40
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
the value of the correlation coefficient is very high r = 0.99453. The value of the
Fisher function is 1360.2 (according to (2.9)) that far exceeds the critical value
F C ð1; 15Þ ¼ 16:6 even for the significance level 0.001 (see, e.g., [34]).
The values of the final number of susceptible persons S 1 % 57; 061 and the final
number of victims V 1 % 81; 257 were calculated with the use of (4.9) and (4.16).
The corresponding numbers of infected I, susceptible S and removed R persons
versus time (starting from January 16, 2020) are presented in Fig. 6.3. The blue line
represents the number of victims V = I + R and is in good agreement with W j + Q j
values taken for calculations (blue “circles”). The difference between the blue line
and W j values (shown by blue “triangles”) can be treated as corresponding Q j values
which are not available for statistical analysis.
To estimate the epidemic duration in mainland China (final time moment t final ),
the condition (4.17) was used. The calculations gave us the value t final % 119.
According to this prediction, the end of epidemic in China was expected to be
around May 14, 2020, provided the existing quarantine measures and rates of
patient isolation will continue and the warm weather will not weaken the
coronavirus.
To demonstrate the accuracy of prediction 2, two new values of W j + Q j corresponding the first two days of March are shown in Fig. 6.3 by blue “stars.” As
noted in the previous chapters, the applied approach can describe only the first wave
of the epidemic and does not take into account imported cases, so to assess its
Fig. 6.3 Mainland China, prediction 2. Results of calculations and verification. Numbers of
infected I (green line), susceptible S (red line) and removed R (black line) persons versus time in
days (starting from January 16, 2020); the blue line represents the number of victims V = I + R;
blue markers show cumulative number of confirmed cases, reported by NHC [2]; the “circles”
correspond to the points used for calculations (it was supposed that V j = W j + Q j ); “stars”—to the
points used only for verification; “triangles” represent the W j data set, which has not been used for
calculations (see Table 1.2)
40
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …