Chapter 6
SIR Simulations for the First Waves
of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Different
Countries and Regions
In this chapter, we will summarize the results of papers [38, 50, 66–78] and present
applications of the approach proposed in two previous chapters to simulate the first
waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, USA, Germany, the UK, the
Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova,
Ukraine, the city of Kyiv, and the whole world.
6.1 Mainland China
The author drew attention to the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in early February
2020. Since the original method of determining the parameters of the SIR model
was published in 2018 [35], its application did not take much time, and on February
10, 2020, the first preprint [81] was posted and the manuscript was submitted to the
Journal Innovative Biosystems and Bioengineering. It turned out that the technique
developed and applied to analyze the dynamics of the mysterious disease of children in the Ukrainian city of Chernivtsi can be useful for mathematical simulations
of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the real number of cases confirmed in mainland China before February 12,
2020, is still unknown, the values of W j (“tested confirmed cases” [2], listed in
Table 1.2), were used for calculations. Thus, it was supposed that V j = W j and the
calculations with the use of data for the time period from January 16 to February 9,
2020, and the method presented in Chaps. 4 and 5 have been done. The optimal
values of parameters are shown in Table 6.1 (prediction 1).
The corresponding correlation coefficient r = 0.997966 was quite high, and the
forecast was very optimistic: The final number of cases V 1 was predicted to be
around 45 thousands, and the new cases will stop to appear after February 25, 2020
(t final ¼ 40, see Table 6.1). The corresponding numbers of infected I, susceptible
S and removed R persons versus time (starting from January 16, 2020) are calculated and shown in Fig. 6.1. The blue line represents the number of victims
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_6
37
SIR Simulations for the First Waves
of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Different
Countries and Regions
In this chapter, we will summarize the results of papers [38, 50, 66–78] and present
applications of the approach proposed in two previous chapters to simulate the first
waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, USA, Germany, the UK, the
Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova,
Ukraine, the city of Kyiv, and the whole world.
6.1 Mainland China
The author drew attention to the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in early February
2020. Since the original method of determining the parameters of the SIR model
was published in 2018 [35], its application did not take much time, and on February
10, 2020, the first preprint [81] was posted and the manuscript was submitted to the
Journal Innovative Biosystems and Bioengineering. It turned out that the technique
developed and applied to analyze the dynamics of the mysterious disease of children in the Ukrainian city of Chernivtsi can be useful for mathematical simulations
of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the real number of cases confirmed in mainland China before February 12,
2020, is still unknown, the values of W j (“tested confirmed cases” [2], listed in
Table 1.2), were used for calculations. Thus, it was supposed that V j = W j and the
calculations with the use of data for the time period from January 16 to February 9,
2020, and the method presented in Chaps. 4 and 5 have been done. The optimal
values of parameters are shown in Table 6.1 (prediction 1).
The corresponding correlation coefficient r = 0.997966 was quite high, and the
forecast was very optimistic: The final number of cases V 1 was predicted to be
around 45 thousands, and the new cases will stop to appear after February 25, 2020
(t final ¼ 40, see Table 6.1). The corresponding numbers of infected I, susceptible
S and removed R persons versus time (starting from January 16, 2020) are calculated and shown in Fig. 6.1. The blue line represents the number of victims
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_6
37