We have used as well the following information about new cases in EU/EEA and
UK, [5]:
for the period February 22–February 29, 1058 new cases, t j = 7
for the period February 22–March 1, 1456 new cases, t j = 8
Thus, the day of February 22, 2020, was taken as a zero point for the epidemic
outbreak in Italy. To synchronize the time with the epidemic in mainland China, we
can use the linear interpolation between W j values corresponding moments of time
t j = 1 and t j = 2 in Table 1.2. Then the moment of time for China, corresponding to
the number of cases 79 (zero point for Italy), is equal 1.2881. Therefore, all time
points t j in the fifth column of Table 1.2 must be decreased by this value.
Corresponding figures for the epidemic in China are shown in Fig. 3.1 by “circles”.
“Stars” represent the number of cases for the epidemic in Italy; “triangles” show
new cases in EU/EEA and UK. It can be seen that in February 2020 the epidemic
dynamics in Italy, Europe and mainland China were rather similar. Unfortunately,
further pandemic development in Europe showed much more rapid increase in the
number of cases. Some evidences of these dangers were reported in [50] where
more precise SIR simulation was used (see Chap. 6).
A quadratic interpolation for the number of cases confirmed in three days in the
Republic of Korea (February 17–19, 2020, see Table 1.2) was used in [41, 49] in
order to compare with the initial epidemic dynamics in Italy, Germany, France,
Spain, Switzerland and the USA. The numbers of cases confirmed in these countries
before March 15, 2020, are shown in Table 3.1. The data sets are taken from [1].
Fig. 3.1 Comparison of the epidemic dynamics in Italy and mainland China. “Circles” represent
corresponding W j values for the epidemic in China (taken from Table 1.2 with the calculated time
shift 1.2881); “stars” represent the number of cases in Italy; “triangles” show new cases in EU/
EEA and UK confirmed after February 22, 2020
16
3 Comparisons of the Early Stages of the COVID-19 …
UK, [5]:
for the period February 22–February 29, 1058 new cases, t j = 7
for the period February 22–March 1, 1456 new cases, t j = 8
Thus, the day of February 22, 2020, was taken as a zero point for the epidemic
outbreak in Italy. To synchronize the time with the epidemic in mainland China, we
can use the linear interpolation between W j values corresponding moments of time
t j = 1 and t j = 2 in Table 1.2. Then the moment of time for China, corresponding to
the number of cases 79 (zero point for Italy), is equal 1.2881. Therefore, all time
points t j in the fifth column of Table 1.2 must be decreased by this value.
Corresponding figures for the epidemic in China are shown in Fig. 3.1 by “circles”.
“Stars” represent the number of cases for the epidemic in Italy; “triangles” show
new cases in EU/EEA and UK. It can be seen that in February 2020 the epidemic
dynamics in Italy, Europe and mainland China were rather similar. Unfortunately,
further pandemic development in Europe showed much more rapid increase in the
number of cases. Some evidences of these dangers were reported in [50] where
more precise SIR simulation was used (see Chap. 6).
A quadratic interpolation for the number of cases confirmed in three days in the
Republic of Korea (February 17–19, 2020, see Table 1.2) was used in [41, 49] in
order to compare with the initial epidemic dynamics in Italy, Germany, France,
Spain, Switzerland and the USA. The numbers of cases confirmed in these countries
before March 15, 2020, are shown in Table 3.1. The data sets are taken from [1].
Fig. 3.1 Comparison of the epidemic dynamics in Italy and mainland China. “Circles” represent
corresponding W j values for the epidemic in China (taken from Table 1.2 with the calculated time
shift 1.2881); “stars” represent the number of cases in Italy; “triangles” show new cases in EU/
EEA and UK confirmed after February 22, 2020
16
3 Comparisons of the Early Stages of the COVID-19 …